Does CDS Premium Most Predict Sovereign Default Risk?

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-530
Author(s):  
Ki Beom Binh ◽  
Seokjin Woo ◽  
Sang Min Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Spot Rate ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Dollar Spot ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper empirically analyzes the price discovery process between Korean sovereign CDS premium, spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar currency swap rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. With the global financial and fiscal crisis, especially in the U.S. and Euro-zone, the interests in sovereign default risk have risen. Interests in CDS, an OTC credit derivative contract based on debt issuer’s default risk, also have increased. A large number of presses have reported that CDS premium would be the best international market indicator for the default risk taken or transferred. However, internationally the CDS market liquidity has not been sufficient enough to validate its properties. Hence, based on empirics, this paper discusses whether Korean sovereign CDS premium can be considered as an appropriate indicator of sovereign credit risk in the Korean economy. Other largely accepted indices which contain the similar information about Korean economic fundamental and Korean external sovereign credit risk are also analyzed and compared: the spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar Currency Swap Rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. Our findings include: (a) in the price discovery process, Won-Dollar spot rate contributes to the price discovery especially most ‘during the financial crisis period’ and the ‘entire period’ (b) Within the period ‘after the financial crisis’, CDS premium and the other indices have mutual influences on the price discovery process higher than the period ‘before the financial crisis’ (c) while Won-Dollar forward rate shows the similar result with Won-Dollar spot rate, NDF rate and CDS premium make the largest mutual influence on price discovery in the period ‘before the financial crisis.’

Banks’ international assets and sovereign default risk

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Gori
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
International Assets

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nexus between banks’ foreign assets and sovereign default risk in a panel of 15 developed economies. The empirical evidence suggests that banks’ foreign exposure is an important determinant of sovereign default probability. Design/methodology/approach Using data from the consolidated banking statistics (total foreign claims on ultimate risk basis) by the Bank of International Settlements, the author constructs a measure of bank international exposure to peer countries. This measure is then used as the target variable in a panel regression for sovereign credit default swaps. The model includes 15 European and non-European developed economies. Identification is discussed extensively in the paper. Findings Quantitatively, a 1% increase in banks’ cross-border claims increases sovereign default risk by about 0.19%. The relationship is weaker when banks are more capitalised. On the other hand, governments are more vulnerable to credit risk spillovers from banks’ international portfolios when having higher debt to GDP ratios. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper that attempts explicitly to establish an empirical connection between banks’ international assets and sovereign default risk. To the author’s opinion, this paper represents a contribution to our understanding of how sovereign credit risk spills over across countries. It also extends significantly the existing literature on the determinants of sovereign risk (that primarily focused on fundamentals, market characteristics – such as liquidity – and global factors). This paper ultimately sheds some new light on the role of intermediaries in the international transmission of credit risk, also adding to today’s discussion about the linkages between banks and sovereigns.

scholarly journals The Evolution of the Lead-lag Markets in the Price Discovery Process of the Sovereign Credit Risk: the Case of Italy

2021 ◽  
pp. 151-175
Author(s):  
Michele Anelli ◽  
Michele Patanè ◽  
Mario Toscano ◽  
Alessio Gioia
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Counterparty Risk ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
The Government ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Abstract Hedging and speculative strategies play a key role in periods of financial market volatility particularly during economic crises. In such contexts, liquidity problems tend to evolve into potential credit risk events that amplifies the volatility of several markets such as the CDS and the government bond markets. The former, however, generally embodies a higher sensitivity to volatility due to the operators’ uncertainty about unstable and countercyclical counterparty risk. The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond yield spreads (GBS), by focusing particularly on sovereign credit risk, in order to evaluate the lead-lag markets in the price discovery process against the backdrop of a deep financial crisis. The focus of this study concerns the country of Italy, one of the major European countries that suffers from both weak GDP growth and high public debt, which subjects it to volatility and speculation during periods of financial stress. JEL classification numbers: G01, G12, G14, G20. Keywords: CDS spreads, Government bond spreads, Credit risk, Cointegration, Vector error correction model, Granger-causality.

scholarly journals The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 75-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Bussière ◽  
Jean Imbs ◽  
Robert Kollmann ◽  
Romain Rancière
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Special Section ◽  
International Macroeconomics ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Economic Journal

This article introduces a special section of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, containing five papers presented during a conference in Paris in October 2011. The aim of the conference was to derive lessons from the financial crisis, for research on international macroeconomics and for policy. The article opens with a summary of the key mechanisms at play during the crisis. The question of the crisis transmission across borders is addressed, with a focus on international trade and financial institutions. Recent advances in the analysis of sovereign default risk are also discussed. The article concludes with a discussion of policy responses to the crisis. (JEL E32, E44, F14, G01, G21, G28)

scholarly journals The Dynamic Progression of the Redenomination and Sovereign Risk in the Price Discovery Process of Italian Banks’ CDSs

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Francesca Cinefra ◽  
Michele Anelli ◽  
Michele Patanè ◽  
Alessio Gioia
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Price Discovery Process

The recent global financial crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis of the Eurozone peripheral countries have generated historic levels of volatility and instability in the financial markets. In particular, during the sovereign debt crisis market operators have begun to focus on the so-called “redenomination risk”, that is the hypothesis of exit from the EMU (Euro Monetary Union) by one or more countries and the consequent redenomination of their debt in the past national currency. This type of risk constitutes a form of additional credit risk premium due to expected systemic failure of the Eurozone. The effects of the economic-financial crisis, the weak economic growth and the political instability that have characterized especially the Italian system in recent years provide the ideal starting point to analyze the evolution of the redenomination risk in the pricing process of the Italian banks’ CDSs (Credit Default Swaps). The contribution of this work is to evaluate the dynamic evolution of sovereign and redenomination risk in the price discovery process of the Italian banks’ CDS spreads (or premia) by using rolling window regressions. Results show that redenomination risk explains a great part of the variance in the CDS spreads during periods of financial distress. The sovereign risk component explains a large part of the variance for almost the entire considered period. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G14, G20. Keywords: CDS spreads, Sovereign risk, Redenomination risk, Rolling window regressions, ISDA basis.

The relative informational efficiency of stocks, options and credit default swaps during the financial crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 510-532
Author(s):  
Maria Chiara Amadori ◽  
Lamia Bekkour ◽  
Thorsten Lehnert
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Options ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
The Other ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate informational efficiency of stock, options and credit default swap (CDS) markets. Previous research suggests that informed traders prefer equity option and CDS markets over stock markets to exploit their informational advantage. As a result, equity and credit derivative markets contribute more to price discovery compared to stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the authors investigate the dynamics behind informed investors’ trading decisions in European stock, options and CDS markets. This allows to identify the predictive explanatory power of the unique information contained in each market with respect to future stock, CDS and option market movements. Findings – A lead-lag relation is found between the CDS market and the other markets, in which changes in CDS spreads are able to consistently forecast changes in stock prices and equity options’ implied volatilities, indicating how the fast-growing CDS market seems to play a special role in the price discovery process. Moreover, in contrast to results of US studies, the stock market is found to forecast changes in the other two markets, suggesting that investors also prefer stock market involvement to exploit their information advantages before moving to CDS and option markets. Interestingly, these patterns have only emerged during the recent financial crisis, while before the crisis, the option market was found to be of major importance in the price discovery process. Originality/value – The authors are the first to study the lead-lag relationship among European stock, option and CDS markets for a large sample period covering the financial crisis.

scholarly journals Sovereign Default Risk and the U.S. Equity Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Jeanneret
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk

This paper develops a two-country asset pricing model with defaultable firms and governments. This model shows that higher sovereign credit risk in a country depresses equity prices internationally and increases their volatility. The effect is strongest during adverse economic conditions and when firms are close to financial distress. A structural estimation provides evidence that sovereign default risk in Europe affects European and U.S. stock markets through the threat of an economic slowdown.

scholarly journals The Role of CDS Market in the Price Discovery Process of the “PIIGS” Countries Sovereign Credit Risk During the Recent Decade of Monetary Easing

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Michele Anelli ◽  
Michele Patanè
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
The Government ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between the credit default swap (CDS) premia and the government bond spreads (GBS), with regard to the sovereign credit risk. The practical focus is to evaluate whether the CDS market effectively is the leading or the lagging market in the credit risk price discovery process during the last decade of monetary easing. The analysis extends to all “sensitive” countries in the Eurozone, the so-called “PIIGS” countries (excluded Greece) for the interval 2007-2017. JEL classification numbers: G01, G12, G14, G20. Keywords: CDS spread, Government bond spread, Sovereign credit risk, Cointegration, Vector error correction model, Granger-causality.

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