On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin R. Auer
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns

scholarly journals Co-movements in stock market returns, Ireland and London 1869–1929

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Stuart
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Free State ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Bivariate Garch Model ◽  
The Relationship

This article studies the relationship between the Irish and London stock markets over the period 1869 to 1929, using monthly data on capital gains. A bivariate GARCH model shows that there were significant volatility spillovers from the London to the Irish market, but not vice versa. This suggests that shocks originating in London were transmitted to Ireland, but that the reverse did not occur. Furthermore, the time-varying correlation indicates that the co-movement between London and Ireland declined during the Irish independence struggle and the establishment of the Irish Free State. The correlation appears to stabilise in the late 1920s.

scholarly journals The Asian crisis contagion: A dynamic correlation approach analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Essahbi Essaadi ◽  
Jamel Jouini ◽  
Wajih Khallouli
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Asian Crisis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Work Shift ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Break Points

In this paper we are testing for contagion caused by the Thai baht collapse of July 1997. In line with earlier work, shift-contagion is defined as a structural change within the international propagation mechanisms of financial shocks. We adopt Bai and Perron's (1998) structural break approach in order to detect the endogenous break points of the pair-wise time-varying correlations between Thailand and seven Asian stock market returns. Our approach enables us to solve the misspecification problem of the crisis window. Our results illustrate the existence of shift-contagion in the Asian crisis caused by the crisis in Thailand.

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