scholarly journals Financial market implications of monetary policy coincidences: Evidence from the UK and Euro Area government-bond markets

Author(s):  
Philip Arestis ◽  
Peter Phelps
2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Frederik Neugebauer

AbstractThis paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of 11 euro area member states. Measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. The country-specific extent of yield reduction seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The spread between core and periphery countries reduces because of a stronger decrease in the latter. This result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the current spread level.


Significance The pick-up in growth contrasts markedly with the sharp falls in inflation across Central Europe (CE). With CE government bond markets under renewed pressure, monetary policy is likely to remain extremely loose as inflation struggles to rise above zero. Impacts CE is enjoying 'Goldilocks' economic conditions, with deflation requiring extremely loose monetary policy amid brisk growth. The ECB's aggressive bond-buying programme will keep yields anchored at extremely low levels, benefiting CE's local debt markets. While investor sentiment is favourable, very high foreign participation in Polish and Hungarian domestic bond markets is causing concern.


Significance Impacts Despite a dramatic deterioration in Greece's relations with its creditors, financial markets have remained relatively unconcerned. The sharp sell-off in government bond markets since mid-April stems almost entirely from exaggerated fears about deflation, not Greece. Tensions over Greece reflect broader weaknesses in the euro-area stemming from a lack of support for political and fiscal union.


CFA Digest ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-108
Author(s):  
Servaas Houben

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Andersson ◽  
Szabolcs Sebestyén ◽  
Lars Jul Overby

AbstractThis paper explores a long dataset (1999-2005) of intraday prices on German long-term bond futures and examines market responses to major macroeconomic announcements and ECB monetary policy releases. German bond markets tend to react more strongly to the surprise component in US macro releases compared with aggregated and national euro area and UK releases, and the strength of those reactions to US releases has increased over the period considered. We also document that the numbers of German unemployed workers consistently have been known to investors before official releases.


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