Country-specific euro area government bond yield reactions to ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Frederik Neugebauer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
Policy Program ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThis paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of 11 euro area member states. Measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. The country-specific extent of yield reduction seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The spread between core and periphery countries reduces because of a stronger decrease in the latter. This result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the current spread level.

ECB will decide Central Europe’s turn from rate rises

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Car Industry ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
China’S Economy

Significance Pressure is mounting on the ECB to justify its withdrawal of monetary stimulus, following a sharp fall in German industrial activity in November that has increased the risk of Europe’s largest economy slipping into recession in the final quarter of 2018. The downturn across the euro-area, which is dragging down inflation rates and government bond yields, is starting to dampen growth in Central Europe. Impacts The euro-area economy’s outlook has dimmed, with Germany’s ten-year government bond yield plumbing its lowest level since April 2017. The open Hungarian and Czech economies are most at risk from a euro-area slowdown, since the weakness is concentrated in the car industry. However, sentiment towards emerging market bond and equity funds has improved despite a global growth scare centred around China’s economy.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Anupam Das
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if the government fiscal variable has an adverse effect on government bond yields over the long run. The models estimated in this paper show that in India the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield over the long run. However, the government debt ratio does not have any discernible adverse effect on IGB yields over the long run. These findings will help policy makers to (i) use information on the current trend of the short-term interest rate and other key macro variables to form their long-term outlook about IGB yields, and (ii) understand the policy implications of the government's fiscal stance.

Weaker euro-area may affect Emerging Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
The Uk

Subject The fallout in Central-eastern Europe (CEE) from Brexit. Significance While CEE government bond markets are being supported by investor expectations of further monetary stimulus in response to the uncertainty stemming from the UK decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'), the zloty is suffering from both its status as one of the most actively traded emerging market (EM) currencies and concerns about the policies of Poland's new nationalist government. A sharp Brexit-induced slowdown in the euro-area economy would put other CEE currencies and equity markets under strain. Impacts The ECB's full-blown QE is helping keep government and corporate bond yields in vulnerable southern European economies historically low. Uncertainty generated by Brexit reduces the scope for further US interest rate hikes later this year, lifting sentiment towards EM assets. The Brexit vote will increase investors' sensitivity to political risks, auguring badly for Poland. Poland has already suffered a downgrade to its credit rating mainly as a result of the interventionist policies of the PiS government.

Currency wars will break out globally

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Race To The Bottom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances

Significance Since the start of 2015, 16 central banks have loosened monetary policy, partly because of the fallout from the oil price plunge, which is driving down inflation. This 'race to the bottom' is increasing the scope for 'currency wars', endangering financial stability in countries with macroeconomic imbalances. Impacts A wave of monetary easing will drive government bond yields to new lows, increasing the scope for currency wars. The race to the bottom is forcing many central banks to loosen policy to deter haven-seeking inflows of foreign capital. This race will fuel speculative attacks against currencies, with Denmark's central bank struggling to defend its krone-euro peg.

Long-Term Interest Rates: The Role of Expected Budget Deficits

1988 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lloyd B. Thomas ◽  
Ali Abderrezak
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Deficit Reduction ◽  
Alternative Measures

A relatively simple loanable funds model is utilized to explain the 10-year government bond yield during 1970–86. In the reduced form equation, expected inflation, expected structural deficits as a percentage of GNP, output growth, and liquidity growth appear as exogenous variables. Using alternative measures of expected inflation and expected deficits, the regression results indicate a powerful effect of expected deficits on the 10-year government bond yield. The increase in expected deficits raised bond yields by some 180 basis points by early 1984, and the anticipation of deficit-reduction legislation accounts for about one-third of the decline in yields during 1985–86, according to the model. In alternative experiments, tests are conducted to see whether bond yields “Granger-cause” forthcoming deficits. Our findings are consistent with the view that agents are forward-looking and foresee the direction of major changes in structural deficits.

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