Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

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Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal, Suffolk, UK

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-3-4059-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 4059-4094

Author(s):

J. Armstrong ◽

R. Wilby ◽

R. J. Nicholls

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Stakeholder Engagement ◽

Online Survey ◽

Climate Model ◽

Economic Knowledge ◽

Framework Analysis ◽

Further Development

Abstract. This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: Scenario-Led (SL), Vulnerability-Led (VL) and Decision–Centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

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Indigenous knowledge and community-based risk assessment of climate change among the Fulani Herder Community of Kpongu, North-Western Ghana

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.236 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lambert Abatanie Napogbong ◽

Maximillian Kolbe Domapielle ◽

Emmanuel Kanchebe Derbile

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Grass Species ◽

Stunted Growth ◽

Multiple Indicators ◽

Dry Spells ◽

Data Collection And Analysis ◽

Drying Trend ◽

North Western

Abstract Given rising concerns about climate change and development in Africa, this paper draws on Community Risk Assessment for mapping the risks of Fulani Herders to climate change in north-western Ghana. Herder communities are seldom explored in climate change related studies although their livelihoods largely depend on the natural environment. Thus, a case study of the Fulani Herder Community of Kpongu in the Wa Municipality was conducted. The design employed Participatory Rural Appraisal instruments for data collection and analysis. The results reveal multiple indicators of climate change, including longer dry seasons and dry spells, shrinking sizes of water bodies, formation of iron pans on top soils, stunted growth of grass species, smaller grass stalks and less concentration of grasses. These have culminated into scarcity of fodder and water and increased distances of cattle herding under excruciating sunshine and temperatures in search of feed and water as an adaptive mechanism. The paper underscores that herder knowledge of climate change reveals a drying trend in climate and de-concentration in vegetation, especially grass species. The paper advocates climate change adaptation planning and policy attention to providing supplementary sources of water and feed in support of cattle herding and herder communities for climate change adaptation.

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Beyond ESPREssO - Integrative risk assessment 2025 synergies and gaps in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ◽

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101817 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 51 ◽

pp. 101817

Author(s):

J. Hemmers ◽

S. Pickl ◽

R. Schwarze ◽

B. Thiebes ◽

T. Loreth ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Reduction ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Disaster Risk Reduction ◽

Disaster Risk

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Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (11) ◽

pp. 2511-2524 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

J. Armstrong ◽

R. Wilby ◽

R. J. Nicholls

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Stakeholder Engagement ◽

Online Survey ◽

Climate Model ◽

Economic Knowledge ◽

Framework Analysis ◽

Further Development

Abstract. This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decision-centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid, showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

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Applications of Risk Assessment in the Development of Climate Change Adaptation Policy

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2007 ◽

10.1061/40927(243)77 ◽

2007 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. A. Alkhaled ◽

A. M. Michalak ◽

J. W. Bulkley

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Adaptation Policy ◽

Climate Change Adaptation Policy

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