scholarly journals Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal, Suffolk, UK

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 4059-4094
Author(s):  
J. Armstrong ◽  
R. Wilby ◽  
R. J. Nicholls
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Stakeholder Engagement ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Economic Knowledge ◽  
Framework Analysis ◽  
Further Development

Abstract. This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: Scenario-Led (SL), Vulnerability-Led (VL) and Decision–Centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

scholarly journals Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2511-2524 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Armstrong ◽  
R. Wilby ◽  
R. J. Nicholls
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Stakeholder Engagement ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Economic Knowledge ◽  
Framework Analysis ◽  
Further Development

Abstract. This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decision-centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid, showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

A study of long-term climate change in a simple seasonal nonlinear climate model

1991 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Q Lin ◽  
H Kreiss ◽  
W J Kuang ◽  
L Y Leung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model

scholarly journals Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

2019 ◽  
Vol 232 ◽  
pp. 759-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Marc Zebisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Modelling Approaches

scholarly journals Estimation of Water Storage Changes in Small Endorheic Lakes in Northern Kazakhstan; The Effect of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influences 

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim Yapiyev ◽  
Kanat Samarkhanov ◽  
Dauren Zhumabayev ◽  
Nazym Tulegenova ◽  
Saltanat Jumassultanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Minor Importance ◽  
Climatic Data

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.

A normative model for integrating organisations for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation within SADC member states

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Livhuwani David Nemakonde ◽  
Dewald Van Niekerk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Normative Model ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Face To Face

Purpose Research has demonstrated that governance of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) have evolved largely in isolation from each other – through different conceptual and institutional frameworks, response strategies and plans, at both international, national and subnational levels. As a result, the management of disaster risk through DRR and CCA is highly fragmented. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the set of actors and their location in government that create and shape governance in DRR and CCA integration within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states. Design/methodology/approach The study draws upon a range of data collection techniques including a comprehensive literature review relating to DRR and CCA in general and in the SADC member states, face-to-face interviews and an online survey. A mixed method research design was applied to the study with a total of 35 respondents from Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe participating in the face-to-face interviews and an online survey. Findings The analysis shows that DRR and CCA are carried out by different departments, agencies and/or ministries in all but three SADC member states, namely, Mozambique, Mauritius and the Seychelles. Participants were able to highlight the different ways in which integration should unfold. In light of this, the paper proposes a normative model to integrate government organisations for DRR and CCA within SADC member states. Originality/value The implementation of the model has the potential to accelerate the integration of organisations for DRR and CCA, with the resultant improvement in the implementation of risk reduction strategies and efficient use of resources.

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3461-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

scholarly journals Space-based geoengineering: Challenges and requirements

2009 ◽  
Vol 224 (3) ◽  
pp. 571-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
C R McInnes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Complex Solution ◽  
Lagrange Point ◽  
Simple Climate Model ◽  
Earth’S Climate

The prospect of engineering the Earth's climate (geoengineering) raises a multitude of issues associated with climatology, engineering on macroscopic scales, and indeed the ethics of such ventures. Depending on personal views, such large-scale engineering is either an obvious necessity for the deep future, or yet another example of human conceit. In this article a simple climate model will be used to estimate requirements for engineering the Earth's climate, principally using space-based geoengineering. Active cooling of the climate to mitigate anthropogenic climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere is considered. This representative scenario will allow the scale of the engineering challenge to be determined. It will be argued that simple occulting discs at the interior Lagrange point may represent a less complex solution than concepts for highly engineered refracting discs proposed recently. While engineering on macroscopic scales can appear formidable, emerging capabilities may allow such ventures to be seriously considered in the long term. This article is not an exhaustive review of geoengineering, but aims to provide a foretaste of the future opportunities, challenges, and requirements for space-based geoengineering ventures.

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