In turning over the pages of the Journal, one is struck by the number of papers which would have been rendered far more valuable if more detailed data of the actual expenses of management had been available. Probably less is known about expenses than about any other factor involved in our daily actuarial work; and this comparative ignorance is the more remarkable when we remember the immense amount of thought and research which has been expended on the subjects of Mortality and Interest.Perhaps good reasons existed in the past for this comparative neglect; but it appears to me that the time is approaching—if it has not already arrived—when it will be absolutely necessary to investigate the subject of expenses to the fullest possible extent. To mention only one aspect of the subject, there is a general impression that expenses are tending to increase, and hence it becomes important for each office to ascertain whether this impression is correct in its own case, and if so, the causes of the increase. These questions can only be answered by a full analysis; but if this is possible any increase will be robbed of much of its force, even if its cause cannot be removed. Certainly expenses are at least as worthy of investigation as mortality, and will probably yield more valuable results, since they, at least, are susceptible of regulation.
Optimal Stopping With Multiple Priors
