scholarly journals Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?

2005 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 517-532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshy Z. Easaw ◽  
Dean Garratt ◽  
Saeed M. Heravi
Keyword(s):  
Household Consumption ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Stock Prices, Consumer Sentiment, And Economic Activity: Some Robust Bilateral Causality Tests For The US And The UK

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Shirvani ◽  
Barry Wilbratte
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Test Procedures ◽  
The Us ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Uk

This paper performs robust bilateral Granger causality tests for stock prices, consumer sentiment, and economic activity for the US and the UK. The robust test procedures involve the use of recently developed time series analysis of nonstationary data with possible structural breaks. Applying a battery of such tests, the paper finds the underlying data to be generally nonstationary and noncointegrated, even after allowing for possible breaks in the data, thus implying that the standard bilateral Granger causality tests are robust. The empirical results indicate the presence of unidirectional causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment for both countries. Given that stock prices drive consumer sentiment, we perform additional causality tests to determine the effect of consumer sentiment on the economy. Our finding of a unidirectional causality from consumer sentiment to the economy in both countries is consistent with a chain of causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment to the economy.

scholarly journals An analysis of United States on Dow Jones Sustainability Index

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grigoris Giannarakis ◽  
Xanthi Partalidou ◽  
Eleni Zafeiriou ◽  
Nikolaos Sariannidis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Sustainability Index ◽  
The Us ◽  
Dow Jones Sustainability Index

This paper examines the effect of various economic and financial indicators on the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) returns. In particular, four explanatory variables are employed, namely United States (US) 10 Year bond value, gold price, Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index and Consumer Sentiment Index calculated by Michigan University. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is applied over DJSI United States which incorporates socially responsible companies for the period August, 1999 to May, 2016 using monthly data. The empirical results indicate that the consumer sentiment and the bond market exert positive impact on the DJSI US, whereas the gold and currency market affects it negatively. In addition, the structural analysis of DJSI US returns volatility showed that the US trade balance has a stabilizing effect on the conditional variance of the DJSI US return series. JEL Classification: G1, F2, Q40, M21. Keywords: Dow Jones Sustainability Index, bond value, gold, exchange rate, consumer sentiment

scholarly journals Determinants of Current Account Balance in ASEAN+6

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-237
Author(s):  
Dewi Purnama ◽  
Budiono Budiono ◽  
Anhar Fauzan Priyono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moment

Abstract: The phenomenon of global current account imbalance has made researchers and policy makers provide more attention on current account issues. This phenomenon is illustrated by the US' current account deficit which continues to increase, while ASEAN+6 reaps a surplus. This study aims to study the factors that affect the aggregate current account in ASEAN+6 that have not been explained by previous studies. Based on the dynamic panel model (GMM) used, it was found that the variables Lagged-current account, ToT, Exchange Rate Stability, and Household Consumption have a significant effect on the aggregate current account in ASEAN+6. On the other hand, the REER and Government Expenditures do not have a significant effect on the ASEAN+6 current account. The benefit of this research is that it can be used for the formulation of current account policies to minimize the government's efforts to overcome a bigger issue: imbalance in balance of payment.Keywords: Current account balance, Generalized Method of Moment, ASEAN+6 Determinan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di ASEAN+6Abstrak: Fenomena ketidakseimbangan transaksi berjalan global telah membuat para peneliti dan pembuat kebijakan memberikan perhatian lebih pada masalah transaksi berjalan. Fenomena ini tergambar dari defisit transaksi berjalan AS yang terus meningkat, sedangkan ASEAN+6 menuai surplus. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi neraca transaksi berjalan agregat di ASEAN+6 yang belum dijelaskan oleh penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya. Berdasarkan model panel dinamis (GMM) yang digunakan, ditemukan bahwa variabel Lagged-current account, ToT, Exchange Rate Stability, dan Household Consumption berpengaruh signifikan terhadap agregat current account di ASEAN+6. Di sisi lain, REER dan Belanja Pemerintah tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap transaksi berjalan ASEAN+6. Manfaat dari penelitian ini adalah dapat digunakan untuk perumusan kebijakan transaksi berjalan untuk meminimalkan upaya pemerintah mengatasi masalah yang lebih besar: ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran.Kata kunci: Neraca transaksi berjalan, Generalized Method of Moment, ASEAN+6

Consumer Sentiment after the Global Financial Crisis

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 (5) ◽  
pp. 671-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edoardo Lozza ◽  
Andrea Bonanomi ◽  
Cinzia Castiglioni ◽  
A. Claudio Bosio
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Research ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Statistical Institute ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The present study seeks to analyse the predictive capacity of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) (a leading index in international market research) in Italy, before and after the global financial crisis. The analysis focuses on the period 2005–2013 and investigates the predictive power of the ICS with regard to two different outcomes: (1) the actual level of household consumption (considering both its absolute value as total spending and its quarterly variations) and (2) consumers' strategies (i.e. reducing their consumption, focusing on discounts and promotions, focusing on quality), both in general and in specific sectors (e.g. food, leisure, health). The study is based on a second-level analysis of data collected by the Italian Statistical Institute (ISTAT) and a tracking survey on Italian consumers' perceptions and strategic intentions (four waves per year, each consisting of 1,000 telephone interviews based on a structured questionnaire). The findings show that the ICS is predictive of quarterly variations in household consumption, and not of its absolute values; that the index is more predictive in the following trimester, while less predictive synchronously (i.e. in the same quarter); and that its predictive power was stronger between 2009 and 2013 compared to previous years. Furthermore, after 2008, the ICS was also predictive of consumer strategies, particularly those aimed at reducing expenses and focusing on quality (while no relation seems to exist between consumer sentiment and consumers' strategies aimed at discounts and promotions). Implications for marketing and market research are discussed.

scholarly journals Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (5) ◽  
pp. 2248-2270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Gorbachev
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Family Income ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Income Volatility ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
The Us ◽  
Differential Increase ◽  
Predictable Variation

I show that after accounting for predictable variation arising from movements in real interest rates, preferences and income shocks, liquidity constraints and measurement errors, volatility of household consumption in the US increased by 25 percent between 1970 and 2004. The increase was lower than that of volatility of family income. Nonwhite and those with less than 13 years of education, for whom there was no differential increase in income volatility, experienced a significantly larger increase in volatility of household consumption. Substantial differences in wealth and access to credit markets point to the main reason for this divide. JEL: D12, D14, E21, J15

The Eleventh Circuit Holds that Agreements in which Pharmaceutical Companies Pay Generic Companies Not to Compete May be Valid

2004 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-184
Author(s):  
Amy Garrigues
Keyword(s):  
Pharmaceutical Companies ◽  
Court Decisions ◽  
Patent Holder ◽  
Trial Court ◽  
Court Of Appeals ◽  
The Us ◽  
Antitrust Laws ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Appeals Court ◽  
Two Sides

On September 15, 2003, the US. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit held that agreements between pharmaceutical and generic companies not to compete are not per se unlawful if these agreements do not expand the existing exclusionary right of a patent. The Valley DrugCo.v.Geneva Pharmaceuticals decision emphasizes that the nature of a patent gives the patent holder exclusive rights, and if an agreement merely confirms that exclusivity, then it is not per se unlawful. With this holding, the appeals court reversed the decision of the trial court, which held that agreements under which competitors are paid to stay out of the market are per se violations of the antitrust laws. An examination of the Valley Drugtrial and appeals court decisions sheds light on the two sides of an emerging legal debate concerning the validity of pay-not-to-compete agreements, and more broadly, on the appropriate balance between the seemingly competing interests of patent and antitrust laws.

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