Phonological variation *

The principle of “one letter—–one sound” introduced in the introduction of this chapter explains why Turkish writing is based on a phonological alphabet, and that such a system takes no account of a pronunciation that deviates from the spelling. For free or predictable variation rules can be set up describing the circumstances under which such variation occurs. Besides vowel reduction (stress induced) and differences in vowel quality (vowel length), phenomena such as contraction in rapid speech are discussed, as well as expansion—the way in which foreign words are adapted to the Turkish sound system and included in the vocabulary. The fully predictable effects of front and back vowels on the quality of certain consonants and other types of assimilation are treated in the final sections.

Modeling the Corona Virus Outbreak in IRAN

BackgroundAs the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic, and it is rapidly expanding in Iran, real-time analyses of epidemiological data are needed to increase situational awareness and inform interventions. In this study, we built a predictive model based on the cumulative trend of new cases and deaths for the top five provinces. We will also look at modeling the trends for confirmed cases, deaths and recovered for the whole country.MethodIn this study, we have chosen to apply the exponential smoothing model to iteratively forecast future values of a regular time series from weighted averages of past daily values. This method is exponential because the value of each level is influenced by every preceding actual value to an exponentially decreasing degree – more recent values are given greater weight. The available data is too small to identify seasonal patterns and make a predictable variation in value, such as annual fluctuation in temperature related to the season. The trend is a tendency of the data to increase or decrease over time.ResultsIf no control is applied, it is expected that over 40,000 people will be infected in Tehran by mid-June. However, if the control measures are successfully implemented, the COV-19 virus outbreak is expected to decline in early April by the end of May (70 days). In the scenario, that no further actions are implemented, the spread of COVID-19 is expected to continue slowly, reaching 21,000 by mid-June. The same process has been applied to review the confirmed cases, deaths and recovered dataset. The forecast has been carried out for the next 30 days; a shorter timeframe has been selected as there is a high probability that the Iranian New Year’s celebration, Farvardin, first month of spring (30th March in Western calendar) will have an impact on the infection rate following the event. The best predictive model predicts the number of reported deaths of COVDI-19 to be between 3,000–5,000 and the number of recovered cases between 5,000 – 30,000 from the total confirmed cases in the range of 35,000-70,000 infected cases.ConclusionsThe Modeling of Covid-19 outbreak shows that the number of patients and deaths is still increasing. Contagious diseases follow an exponential model and the same be Haves this one. This is because the virus can spread to others and finally each person turns into a carrier of the virus and transmit it to another person. Disease control depends on disconnection and social distancing. In addition, many factors are effective in stopping the disease. These include citizens’ participation in the prevention process, health education, the effectiveness of instructive traditions, environmental conditions, and so on.

Incorporating self-reported health measures in risk equalization through constrained regression

Most health insurance markets with premium-rate restrictions include a risk equalization system to compensate insurers for predictable variation in spending. Recent research has shown, however, that even the most sophisticated risk equalization systems tend to undercompensate (overcompensate) groups of people with poor (good) self-reported health, confronting insurers with incentives for risk selection. Self-reported health measures are generally considered infeasible for use as an explicit ‘risk adjuster’ in risk equalization models. This study examines an alternative way to exploit this information, namely through ‘constrained regression’ (CR). To do so, we use administrative data (N = 17 m) and health survey information (N = 380 k) from the Netherlands. We estimate five CR models and compare these models with the actual Dutch risk equalization model of 2016 which was estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS). In the CR models, the estimated coefficients are restricted, such that the under-/overcompensation for groups based on self-reported general health is reduced by 20, 40, 60, 80, or 100%. Our results show that CR can improve outcomes for groups that are not explicitly flagged by risk adjuster variables, but worsens outcomes for groups that are explicitly flagged by risk adjuster variables. Using a new standardized metric that summarizes under-/overcompensation for both types of groups, we find that the lighter constraints can lead to better outcomes than OLS.

Debt Structure and Conditional Conservatism

We investigate whether characteristics of firms' debt structure, beyond leverage and debt covenants, are associated with predictable variation in conditional conservatism. The contracting theory of conservatism holds that conditional conservatism is an efficient mechanism employed by an organization to address agency conflict arising from contracts with various parties. For firms with contracts that are associated with more agency conflict, the potential benefit of a conservative reporting strategy should increase. We examine the following debt contract characteristics: (1) convertibility, (2) securitization, (3) seniority, and (4) placement. We find that debt types thought to be associated with a downward shift in agency conflict (convertible, secured, senior, and private debt) are associated with less conservative reporting. Our evidence supports contracting theory as being descriptive of the link between debt and conservatism. Also, our evidence corroborates the assertion that debt contract modifications do not fully resolve lenders' demands for conservative reporting. JEL Classifications: M41; D21; D82; G14.

How Do Individuals Repay Their Debt? The Balance-Matching Heuristic

We study how individuals repay their debt using linked data on multiple credit cards. Repayments are not allocated to the higher interest rate card, which would minimize the cost of borrowing. Moreover, the degree of misallocation is invariant to the economic stakes, which is inconsistent with optimization frictions. Instead, we show that repayments are consistent with a balance-matching heuristic under which the share of repayments on each card is matched to the share of balances on each card. Balance matching captures more than half of the predictable variation in repayments and is highly persistent within individuals over time. (JEL D14, D15, D91, G41)

Selection Incentives for Health Insurers in the Presence of Sophisticated Risk Adjustment

This article analyzes selection incentives for insurers in the Dutch basic health insurance market, which operates with community-rated premiums and sophisticated risk adjustment. Selection incentives result from the interplay of three market characteristics: possible actions by insurers, consumer response to these actions, and predictable variation in profitability of insurance contracts. After a qualitative analysis of the first two characteristics our primary objective is to identify the third. Using a combination of claims data ( N = 16.8 million) and survey information ( N = 387,195), we find substantial predictable variation in profitability. On average, people in good health are profitable, while those in poor health are unprofitable. We conclude that Dutch insurers indeed face selection incentives. A complete measure of selection incentives, however, captures the correlation between individual-level profitability and consumer response to insurer-actions. Obtaining insight in this correlation is an important direction for further research.

On Predicting Animal Evolution

The origination of most free-living animal species is predictable. ‘Light’ order production in the trophic levels below is the key. Absent from the abiotic environment (pre-primary level) and prokaryotes, ‘light’ order consists of differences in species composition between highly-developed, species-packed communities in which extinction may be the precursor to speciation, particularly ecologically comparable tropical continental lowland ones of Africa, Australia, India, and South America. Based on but not itself of matter and non-burnable, its nil waste heat content ‘compensates’ for burned-up food energy. Where the amounts of it on infra-apical trophic levels form an inverted pyramid like waste heat’s, occupancy of trophic levels from primary to apical is predictable (variation and selection assumed). Terminal non-inversion predicts post-apical vacancy. Examined communities were from grasslands (grasses, large grazing mammals, large carnivores), and woodlands (woody plants, butterflies, insect-eating birds, raptorial birds). Linnaeus’s binomial classificational system turned out to be unexpectedly rich in new content. A new object of study, the neoLinnaean, is recognised and a new process, the neoLyellian, advanced to explain it. Relations to Darwin’s and Lyell’s non-predictive theories of change, to ecology and evolution, to thermodynamics, statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, and to neurology are discussed.

On Predicting Animal Evolution

The origination of most free-living animal species is predictable. ‘Light’ order in the producer trophic levels below is the key. Absent from the abiotic environment (pre-biotic level) and prokaryotes, ‘light’ order consists of differences in species composition between developed species-packed communities in which extinction may be the precursor of speciation, particularly ecologically comparable tropical lowland ones of Africa, Australia, India, and South America. Based on but not itself of matter and non-burnable, nil waste heat content ‘compensates’ for burned-up food energy. Where the amounts on pre-apical levels form an inverted pyramid like waste heat’s, occupancy of consumer levels from primary to apical is predictable (variation and selection assumed). Terminal non-inversion predicts post-apical vacancy. Examined communities were from grasslands (large carnivores, large grazing mammals, grasses) and woodlands (raptorial birds, insect-eating birds, butterflies, woody plants). Comparisons with Darwin’s and Lyell’s non-predictive theories of change are made. Implication for Gladyshevian thermodynamics v. Prigoginean dynamics is discussed. Linnaeus’s classificational system turns out to be rich with new and unsuspected content.