Institutional Change and Macroeconomic Variables in the ASEAN—Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia: The Effects of a Trade War between China and USA

A trade war between the United States and China resulted in an increase in trade tariffs on imported goods entering each of these countries. Southeast Asian countries that have trade relations with the two countries, especially in terms of non-oil and gas exports of 25% to 35%, will be affected by export demand. Furthermore, the effects of the trade war will reduce gross domestic product (GDP) in Southeast Asian countries or the ASEAN and increase the current account deficit. On the other hand, the effects of the trade war that led to the decision of foreign investors to move their manufacturing base out of China will produce a flow of foreign investment that is ready to be captured by every ASEAN country.

Asymmetric Effect of Fiscal Deficit on Current Account Deficit: Evidence from India

This study has attempted to re-investigate the impact of fiscal deficit (FD) on current account deficit (CAD) (also known as twin deficit hypothesis) in India from 1970–1971 to 2018–2019 in the presence of private saving–investment gap (SI) and exchange rate (EXR). For the empirical investigation, the study has employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to cointegration. The NARDL results found the evidence of an asymmetric effect of FD, SI and EXR on CAD in the long run only. The obtained results support the traditional views of the Keynesian approach that FD has a positive impact on CAD, validates the existence of the ‘Twin Deficit Hypothesis’ in India. Further, results also depict that SI has a positive effect on CAD, whereas EXR has an adverse impact on CAD. From a policy standpoint, the asymmetric impact of FD on CAD provides strong reasons for conceiving policies that are adaptable to changing dynamics in internal as well as external sectors.

Prospects for Turkey in 2022

Subject Prospects for Turkey in 2022. Significance The Central Bank may cut its policy rate again tomorrow. The authorities are gambling on weakening the lira despite soaring inflation, emboldened by strong growth and a narrowing current account deficit. The main theme for 2022 will be the following year, when the Turkish Republic’s centenary will be packed with symbolism for both political sides.

Commodity Market Prices and Its Impact on Exchange Rate of Pakistan

Pakistan’s economy and exchange rate has experienced many ups and downs in the last ten years. The exchange rate has depreciated from Rs.59/$ to Rs.104/$. This is causing a massive dent to Pakistan economy. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan is consistently facing a current account deficit for the last several years and a depreciated currency is one of the main reasons for the deficit. This study analyzes the relationship between the commodity market prices and exchange rates in Pakistan both in long and in short run. This research utilized the monthly data for the past ten years from Jan-2006 to Dec-2015. The results are quite surprising because in Pakistan, none of the prices of the commodities (i-e oil and gold) have short term relationship with the exchange rate of Pakistan. This study also does not find any long-term relationship among the variables.

Determinants of Current Account Balance in ASEAN+6

The phenomenon of global current account imbalance has made researchers and policy makers provide more attention on current account issues. This phenomenon is illustrated by the US' current account deficit which continues to increase, while ASEAN+6 reaps a surplus. This study aims to study the factors that affect the aggregate current account in ASEAN+6 that have not been explained by previous studies. Based on the dynamic panel model (GMM) used, it was found that the variables Lagged-current account, ToT, Exchange Rate Stability, and Household Consumption have a significant effect on the aggregate current account in ASEAN+6. On the other hand, the REER and Government Expenditures do not have a significant effect on the ASEAN+6 current account. The benefit of this research is that it can be used for the formulation of current account policies to minimize the government's efforts to overcome a bigger issue: imbalance in balance of payment.Keywords: Current account balance, Generalized Method of Moment, ASEAN+6 Determinan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di ASEAN+6Abstrak: Fenomena ketidakseimbangan transaksi berjalan global telah membuat para peneliti dan pembuat kebijakan memberikan perhatian lebih pada masalah transaksi berjalan. Fenomena ini tergambar dari defisit transaksi berjalan AS yang terus meningkat, sedangkan ASEAN+6 menuai surplus. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi neraca transaksi berjalan agregat di ASEAN+6 yang belum dijelaskan oleh penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya. Berdasarkan model panel dinamis (GMM) yang digunakan, ditemukan bahwa variabel Lagged-current account, ToT, Exchange Rate Stability, dan Household Consumption berpengaruh signifikan terhadap agregat current account di ASEAN+6. Di sisi lain, REER dan Belanja Pemerintah tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap transaksi berjalan ASEAN+6. Manfaat dari penelitian ini adalah dapat digunakan untuk perumusan kebijakan transaksi berjalan untuk meminimalkan upaya pemerintah mengatasi masalah yang lebih besar: ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran.Kata kunci: Neraca transaksi berjalan, Generalized Method of Moment, ASEAN+6

Dynamics of Twin Deficits, Ricardian Equivalence, and Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in South Asian Countries

This study examines the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit, specifically twin deficits hypothesis, Ricardian equivalence hypothesis, and Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in South Asian countries. Results show that budget deficit and private savings investment balance do not affect current account deficit in the long run and rejects the Keynesian view of twin deficits hypothesis in South Asian countries. No causality exists between current account deficit and budget deficit in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in short run, while bidirectional causality exists in Bangladesh. Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is rejected in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, while it holds in India and Pakistan. Feldstein-Horioka puzzle exists in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, while it does not exist in India and Pakistan. Structural reforms in fiscal and trade sector are required to avoid emergence of twin deficits, while an active and effective role of government is required for sustainable economic growth.

Post-COVID-19 Asia will grow strongly in 2021 but structural problems continue to pile up

2020 was a terrible year for Asia but for some countries less than for others. Countries recovered divergently with some managing to grow positively notwithstanding the pandemic, namely mainland China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The rest of Asia had a hard time, facing problems such as current-account deficit, tourism reliance, and limited fiscal and monetary space. This article discusses the unevenness of COVID-19 and the divergent recovery of Asian economies in the post-COVID-19 era.

Turkey faces power shortages as gas contracts end

Significance Turkey stands to lose 21% of its import portfolio during the peak winter demand period. Take-or-pay gas import contracts signed two decades ago are coming to an end, and renewal is proving far from straightforward as exporters seek to leverage Turkey’s weak position to secure favourable terms. Impacts Cheaper gas on better terms would help Turkey’s chronic current account deficit. Ankara is keen to avoid further confrontation with Washington in case it puts further pressure on the lira in the run-up to elections. Balancing relations with Washington and Moscow and securing cheap, reliable gas supplies would be a major feat but may prove impossible.

Preliminary impact of IFRS 9 implementation on the Lebanese banking sector

Research Question: What is the impact of the new requirements of the expected credit loss (ECL) model on the Lebanese banking sector? Motivation: In spite the expansion of research in respect of International Financial Reporting Standard N0. 9 (IFRS 9) in the past few years, it is still in its infancy in developing countries. Meanwhile, empirical IFRS 9 studies for banks is yet considered little as compared to the theoretical aspect. Our study seeks to fill this gap by testing the impact of IFRS 9 on the Lebanese banking sector. This paper is the first comprehensive attempt to empirically assess the estimated impact of IFRS 9 as disclosed in the 2017 financial statements. Idea: This study examines if the increase in provision based on the new ECL is strongly positively related to the average credit losses for the last 5 years, the current provisions level for the loans portfolio, the portfolio of investment securities, and the portfolio of liquid assets. Data: The data were collected from 19 consolidated banks representing 91% of the total consolidated balance sheet of all Lebanese banks. Tools: To test study’s hypotheses, we applied linear regression using SPSS. Findings: Two main results can be derived: First, we found that the impact of the new ECL model is not material to the banks’ equity if we consider the excess regulatory provisions booked in anticipation of IFRS 9. Second, we found that the increase in provision based on the ECL model is strongly positively related to the portfolio of investments securities and negatively related to the historical credit loss ratio. Contribution: Empirical IFRS 9 studies for banks is yet considered little as compared to the theoretical aspect. Our study seeks to fill this gap by testing the impact of IFRS 9 on the Lebanese banking sector. The Lebanese banks are an interesting case because they play a key role in the Lebanese economy, acting as the main channel for capital inflows into the country and financing the largest part of the government’s current account deficit.