scholarly journals Do stock prices contain predictive power for the future economic activity? A Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 93-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Croux ◽  
Peter Reusens
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Veli Yilanci ◽  
Onder Ozgur ◽  
Muhammed Sehid Gorus

AbstractThis study investigates the stock price–economic activity nexus in 12 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) by employing monthly data over the period 1981:1–2018:3. For this purpose, the study uses Granger causality in the frequency domain in the panel setting by decomposing the symmetric and asymmetric fluctuations. This methodology determines whether the predictive power of interested variables is concentrated on quickly, moderately, or slowly fluctuating components. Our findings show that the stock prices have predictive power for future long-term economic activity in the panel setting. However, economic activity has more reliable information for stock prices for negative components. Additionally, empirical findings for asymmetric shocks are not fully consistent with those of symmetric ones. Besides, the country-specific results provide different causal linkages across members and frequencies. These findings may provide valuable information for policymakers to design proper and effective policies in OECD countries regarding the stock market and economic activity nexus.


F1000Research ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 1710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Faes ◽  
Sebastiano Stramaglia ◽  
Daniele Marinazzo

This Correspondence article is a comment which directly relates to the paper “A study of problems encountered in Granger causality analysis from a neuroscience perspective” (Stokes and Purdon, 2017). We agree that interpretation issues of Granger causality (GC) in neuroscience exist, partially due to the historically unfortunate use of the name “causality”, as described in previous literature. On the other hand, we think that Stokes and Purdon use a formulation of GC which is outdated (albeit still used) and do not fully account for the potential of the different frequency-domain versions of GC; in doing so, their paper dismisses GC measures based on a suboptimal use of them. Furthermore, since data from simulated systems are used, the pitfalls that are found with the used formulation are intended to be general, and not limited to neuroscience. It would be a pity if this paper, even if written in good faith, became a wildcard against all possible applications of GC, regardless of the large body of work recently published which aims to address faults in methodology and interpretation. In order to provide a balanced view, we replicate the simulations of Stokes and Purdon, using an updated GC implementation and exploiting the combination of spectral and causal information, showing that in this way the pitfalls are mitigated or directly solved.


e-Finanse ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Taiwo A. Muritala ◽  
Muftau A. Ijaiya ◽  
Olatanwa H. Afolabi ◽  
Abdulrasheed B. Yinus

AbstractThis paper examines the causality between fraud and bank performance in Nigeria over the period 2000-2016 for quarterly financial data using Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Granger Causality analysis. The results show a long-run relationship between the variables. Bank performance was found to be linked to Granger fraud variables and vice versa at 10% significant level. This study reveals that there was a direct causal relationship between bank performance and fraud because increase in fraudulent activities in the banking sector leads to reduction in bank performance. Hence, this study recommends that internal control systems of banks should be strengthened so as to detect and prevent fraud. In this way, bank assets would be protected.


2021 ◽  
Vol 168 ◽  
pp. S98
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Gao ◽  
Yinuo Zhang ◽  
Ke Liu ◽  
Yin Tian ◽  
Peiyang Li

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