causality analysis
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2022 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-90
Author(s):  
Chaoqiang Deng ◽  
Patrick Cousot

Given a behavior of interest, automatically determining the corresponding responsible entity (i.e., the root cause) is a task of critical importance in program static analysis. In this article, a novel definition of responsibility based on the abstraction of trace semantics is proposed, which takes into account the cognizance of observer, which, to the best of our knowledge, is a new innovative idea in program analysis. Compared to current dependency and causality analysis methods, the responsibility analysis is demonstrated to be more precise on various examples. However, the concrete trace semantics used in defining responsibility is uncomputable in general, which makes the corresponding concrete responsibility analysis undecidable. To solve this problem, the article proposes a sound framework of abstract responsibility analysis, which allows a balance between cost and precision. Essentially, the abstract analysis builds a trace partitioning automaton by an iteration of over-approximating forward reachability analysis with trace partitioning and under/over-approximating backward impossible failure accessibility analysis, and determines the bounds of potentially responsible entities along paths in the automaton. Unlike the concrete responsibility analysis that identifies exactly a single action as the responsible entity along every concrete trace, the abstract analysis may lose some precision and find multiple actions potentially responsible along each automaton path. However, the soundness is preserved, and every responsible entity in the concrete is guaranteed to be also found responsible in the abstract.


2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Oumar Keita ◽  
Baorong Yu ◽  
Nthabeleng Lilian Moshoeshoe

This essay provides a better comprehension of the other disregarded impacts of FDI by examining first, the causality direction then the long- and short-term interaction among inward FDI and financial development in Guinea using 1990-2017 data set. The empirical assertions are grounded on the Granger causality wald test, Bounds test for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM) and the Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. FDI per GDP net inflows and Credit to private sector are respectively adopted as FDI measure and financial advancement indicator. The following outcomes are established: first, FDI in the long term negatively influence financial advancement in Guinea at 5% magnitude. This inference indicates that 1 percent surge in FDI per GDP induces 0.389 decrease in credit to private sector. Second, FDI per GDP [L1] negatively and significantly interact with financial advancement in the short term. Suggesting that 1 percent increase in FDI in the short term engenders 0.215 decrease in credit to private sector. Third, the causality direction remains unidirectional irrespective to the number of lags. Finally, the long- and short-term coefficients tell us the same story regardless of the time effects. Overall, contrary to the common perceptions, we found strong evidence that foreign investment does not enhance financial development in Guinea. In terms of practical implications, it seems ineffective to use FDI as financial advancement instrument within the Guinean context.


2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 677
Author(s):  
Guirong Jiang ◽  
Rafael Alvarado ◽  
Muntasir Murshed ◽  
Brayan Tillaguango ◽  
Elisa Toledo ◽  
...  

Agricultural activities have a significant impact on environmental quality, because they generate waste that pollutes water and soil. In parallel, the supply of products has diversified in recent years to meet growing demand, exerting strong pressure on nature’s capacity for regeneration and absorption of waste. This research aims to examine the impact of agricultural employment and the export diversification index on ecological footprints, using advanced techniques of panel data econometrics. This relationship is moderated by population density and real per capita product. Cross-section dependence and slope homogeneity were included in the econometric models. The cointegration and causality analysis was reinforced by estimating the short- and long-term elasticities, using the AMG, CCE-MG, FMOLS, and DOLS models. Using annual data for 96 countries, we found a heterogeneous impact of agricultural employment and the export diversification index on ecological footprint, between the short and long term. The findings reveal that the increase of the product increases the pressure on the ecological footprint. The achievement of SDGs must include joint efforts between countries, and not in isolation. Those responsible for environmental policy should promote the idea that production must be friendly to the environment and promote the green growth of countries. The adoption of new technology, higher productivity agricultural employment, and the regulation of exports of sustainable products can contribute to achieving environmental sustainability.


2022 ◽  
pp. 52-70
Author(s):  
Mara Madaleno ◽  
Margarita Robaina ◽  
Celeste Eusébio ◽  
Maria João Carneiro ◽  
Vitor Rodrigues ◽  
...  

This chapter aims to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between tourism and air quality, specifically in the Portuguese tourism industry, with a focus on tourist nationality. It examines whether this relationship differs according to tourist origin. This study uses an air pollutant, PM10, with a strong impact on human health that has been highly neglected in the literature. Despite the great use of CO2 in assessing the causal relationship between tourism and the environment, this is not the best indicator of air quality (AQ). This chapter presents results by applying vector autoregressive models (VAR) with monthly data for the period of 2007-2017, considering the nationality of tourists that visit Portugal. Results suggest that PM10 levels and tourism are negatively correlated (in the Pearson sense) with a link between them in the long run. This relationship is confirmed by the four methodologies tested. The negative relation in Pearson and cointegration results suggests that tourism can be affected by AQ in Portugal and may lead to better AQ.


2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 813-833
Author(s):  
Muhammed Veysel Kaya ◽  
Suat Serhat Yilmaz ◽  
Mehmet Gökhan Özdemir

Motivation: Humanity has benefited from natural resources in production activities throughout history and this pressure on natural resources has increased even more with the efforts of industrialization. In this process, people benefited heavily from fossil fuels in their production and distribution activities, thereby damaging the environment and the atmosphere to a large extent. With the destruction of the environment, it has become important for the countries and the academic circles to measure environmental damage with the increase of economic activities in order to take various measures. Aim: At this point, in this study, the relationship between economic growth and carbon-dioxide emissions was examined within the scope of 50 countries that are members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). In this process, annual data of the countries concerned between 1995 and 2017 were used; Pedroni Cointegration Analysis, Granger Causality Analysis, Pooled Mean Group Estimator (PMGE) and Mean Group Estimator (MGE) methods were used to measure and estimate the relationship between these two variables. The causality analysis shows that the economic growth is the Granger cause of carbon-dioxide emissions in the country group studied. In addition, the coefficients obtained in PMGE and MGE analyzes were found as 0.43 and 0.33 and were statistically significant and positive. Then, with the help of Hausman Homogeneity Test, it was decided between the two estimators, and it concluded that PMGE Estimator is the more reliable estimator. Results: The results obtained with the PMGE estimator indicate that the 1% increase in economic growth increased carbon dioxide emission by 0.43%.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Onsay

This paper unravels the critical aspect of science and technology through research and development indicators as sources, drivers, and predictors of economic growth from the perspective of two developing countries, namely: Philippines and Thailand (ASEAN), and two developed economies, namely: Japan and Australia (ASEAN-X) in Asia-Pacific Region. The data set ranges from 1980 to 2019 and is collected from World Development Indicators of the World Bank, Institute for Statistics of United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). Research and Development (R&D) is a tool for generating new knowledge and serves as input for technological advancement. In the long run, it has been proven that technology can sustain permanent economic development in the economy. In developed economies, the nexus between the aforementioned variables is robust and significant. Thus, the R&D indicators can be used as a predictor of economic growth. However, in developing economies, the nexus of variables involved is negligible and insignificant. Hence, the R&D indicators cannot be effectively utilized as a predictor of economic growth. Furthermore, the study combined the two sets of panel data and a relevant conclusion was drawn. A country-panel regression and causality analysis were performed based on the empirics of macroeconomics.


Author(s):  
Mohammad Zuhairie Zainudin ◽  
Ong Hway-Boon ◽  
Chong Choy-Yoke

The purpose of this paper is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between household income gap, physical capital, human capital, and technological progress in Malaysia. Based on the Solow's growth model, this study applied the panel cointegration estimation of the full modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), as well as the Granger causality analysis. The result showed that there is a short run and long run relationship running from physical capital, human capital, technological progress towards the income gap of M40 and B40 groups of households. This study is unique because it addresses the income gap between a group of households of the bottom 40% and middle 40% across all states in Malaysia.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (9) ◽  
pp. 854-861
Author(s):  
Fajrin Nur Hidayah ◽  
Grisvia Agustin

Abstract The purpose of this research is to investigate causal relationship between financial literacy and financial behavior, financial behavior and financial satisfaction, and between financial literacy and financial satisfaction. The analysis technique used was Granger Causality analysis. The research data was obtained using questionnaire distributed to 100 respondents. The repondents are Indonesian citizens in productive age (15-64 years). The results show a one-way causality between financial literacy and financial behavior, between financial behavior and financial satisfaction, but there is no causality relationship (independence) between financial literacy and financial satisfaction. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan sebab akibat dari literasi finansial dan perilaku finansial, perilaku finansial dan kepuasan finansial, serta antara literasi finansial dan kepuasan finansial. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah analisa Granger Causality. Data dikumpulkan dengan menggunakn kuesioner yang dibagikan kepada 100 responden. Para responden adalah warga Indonesia berusia produktif (15-64) tahun. Hasil yang didapatkan menunjukkan adanya hubungan sebab akibat antara literasi finansial dengan perilaku financial, serta antara perilaku finansial dankepuasan finansial. Sementara hubungan antar literasi finansial dan kepuasan finansial tidak ditemukan.


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