A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

Abstract. The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling complexity impede accurate storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent Supercyclone Amphan in real time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making over the Bengal delta shorelines as well as over other similar cyclone-prone regions.

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Towards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: Chasing the super-cyclone Amphan

10.5194/nhess-2020-340 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Md Jamal Uddin Khan ◽

Fabien Durand ◽

Xavier Bertin ◽

Laurent Testut ◽

Yann Krien ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Computationally Efficient ◽

Bengal Delta ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Super Cyclone ◽

Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract. The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling computational costs impede the storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real-time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent super cyclone Amphan in real-time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making.

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The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty

10.5194/nhess-2020-361 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Georg Umgiesser ◽

Marco Bajo ◽

Christian Ferrarin ◽

Andrea Cucco ◽

Piero Lionello ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

State Of The Art ◽

The State ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Northern Adriatic Sea ◽

Northern Adriatic ◽

The Past ◽

Forecasting System ◽

The City ◽

Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice relies crucially on a good flood forecasting system in order to protect the extensive cultural heritage, their population, and their economic activities. Storm surge forecasting systems are in place to warn the population of imminent flood threats. In the future, it will be of paramount importance to increase the reliability of these forecasting systems, especially with the new MOSE mobile barriers that will be completed by 2021, and will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of European storm surge forecasting is reviewed. The challenges that lie ahead for Venice and its forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. Some extreme events that happened in the past and were particularly difficult to forecast are also described.

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