Robust temporal optimisation for a crop planning problem under climate change uncertainty

Accounting for climate change in a forest planning stochastic optimization model

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/cjfr-2015-0468 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 46 (9) ◽

pp. 1111-1121 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo ◽

Cristóbal Pais ◽

Joanna Bachmatiuk ◽

Andrés Weintraub

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Harvesting ◽

Forest Growth ◽

Growth And Yield ◽

Forest Planning ◽

Planning Problem ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Present Value ◽

Eucalyptus Forest ◽

Climate Change Uncertainty

An approach is proposed for incorporating the variations in timber growth and yield due to climate change uncertainty into the forest harvesting decision process. A range of possible climate scenarios are transformed by a forest growth and yield model into tree growth scenarios, which in turn are integrated into a multistage stochastic model that determines the timber cut in each future period so as to maximize net present value over the planning horizon. For comparison purposes, a deterministic model using a single average climate scenario is also developed. The performance of the deterministic and stochastic formulations are tested in a case study of a medium-term forest planning problem for a Eucalyptus forest in Portugal where climate change is expected to severely impact production in the coming years. Experiments conducted using 32 climate scenarios demonstrate the stochastic model’s superior results in terms of present value, particularly in cases of relatively high minimum timber demand. The model should therefore be useful in supporting forest planners’ decisions under climate uncertainty.

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Climate Change Uncertainty and the Classification of 226 Local Entities in Korea

Journal of Climate Change Research ◽

10.15531/ksccr.2020.11.5.507 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (222) ◽

pp. 507-520

Author(s):

Jaewan Kim ◽

Tae Yong Jung ◽

Chan Park ◽

Jongwoo Moon ◽

Dahyun Kang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Uncertainty

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Climate Change: Uncertainty, Impact, and Adaptation

Handbook of Engineering Hydrology (Three-Volume Set) ◽

10.1201/b16695-48 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 768-787

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Uncertainty

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Climate Change, Uncertainty and Policy

10.20944/preprints202108.0284.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jeroen Hopster

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Science ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Deep Uncertainty ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Moral Uncertainty ◽

Climate Economics ◽

Climate Change Uncertainty ◽

Management Perspective ◽

Climate Uncertainty

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

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