Likelihood ratio estimation without a gold standard: A case study evaluating a brucellosis c-ELISA in cattle and water buffalo of Trinidad

Abstract Background Fecal calprotectin is a non-invasive test of colonic inflammation used for monitoring inflammatory bowel disease activity and for risk stratifying non-specific colonic symptoms. Calprotectin is a leukocyte specific enzyme. A similar test, leukocyte esterase is used to detect leukocytes in urine and is widely available as a low-cost point-of-care test strip. We hypothesize that an unmodified version of the urine test strip would be highly accurate in predicting a positive fecal calprotectin test in a real world sample of patients. Aims To explore a low cost, rapid alternative to the fecal calprotectin test Methods All inpatient and outpatient stool samples tested for calprotectin by the Vancouver General Hospital laboratory from February 2020 to November 2020 were included prospectively. Samples were simultaneously tested for fecal leukocyte esterase using an unmodified Roche Cobas Chemstrip urinalysis test strip by central lab personnel. An identical aliquot was sent to LifeLabs for calprotectin as per standard protocol. All samples were suspended in buffer using established laboratory protocols prior to testing. Fecal leukocyte esterase results were reported as 0–4+ based on visual interpretation, calprotectin results were reported as mcg/g of stool. REB review and approval was obtained prior to data collection. Sensitivity, Specificity and AUROC were calculated using Microsoft Excel and JROCFIT. Results 26 samples were collected. Using a fecal calprotectin greater than 120 mcg/g as a gold standard an AUROC of 0.89 (SE= .06) was calculated. A leukocyte esterase reading of 2+ or greater had the best test characteristics based on ROC curve analysis. Using this cutoff, 21/26 samples were concordant, giving an accuracy of 80.8%, sensitivity of 90.9% and specificity of 73.3%. Positive likelihood ratio was 8.07 and negative likelihood ratio was 0.29. Assuming an AUROC of 0.8, the sample size N=26 is 90% powered (β=0.9) to predict the true AUROC within 0.1 with a type I error rate of .05 (α<.05). Conclusions This study suggests application of a prepared stool sample to a urinalysis test strip gives a result highly predictive of a positive fecal calprotectin test. Further results are being collected prospectively to improve the robustness of these preliminary data. Secondary outcomes including comparison to endoscopy and biopsy results where available are planned if an adequate sample size can be accrued. Future studies justifying independent clinical use of leukocyte esterase would require a common gold standard comparator such as endoscopy. Fecal calprotectin testing is not universally insured and is not available as a rapid test strip. Use of fecal leukocyte esterase may reduce costs and shorten time to results if proven to be independently reliable. Funding Agencies None

Download Full-text

On the use of Gaussian component information in the generative likelihood ratio estimation for speaker verification

10.21437/interspeech.2010-145 ◽

2010 ◽

Author(s):

Rong Zheng ◽

Bo Xu

Keyword(s):

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Speaker Verification ◽

Gaussian Component ◽

Ratio Estimation

Download Full-text

Diagnostic evaluation of IgM ELISA and IgM Immunofluorescence assay for the diagnosis of Acute Scrub Typhus in central Nepal

10.21203/rs.2.10024/v5 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Rajendra Gautam ◽

Keshab Parajuli ◽

Tshokey Tshokey ◽

John Stenos ◽

Jeevan Bahadur Sherchand

Keyword(s):

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Gold Standard ◽

Scrub Typhus ◽

Febrile Illness ◽

Immunofluorescence Assay ◽

Acute Febrile Illness ◽

Central Nepal ◽

Igm Elisa ◽

Typhus Fever

Abstract Introduction Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness caused by the obligate intracellular bacterium,Orientia tsutsugamushi. Given their affordability and ease of use, antibody based diagnostic assays can be important diagnostic tools for early detection of scrub typhus fever in resource poor countries like Nepal. Immunochromatography (ICT) and IgM ELISA are two of the routinely employed antibody based assays for diagnosis of Scrub typhus fever in Nepal, although the recommended gold standard diagnostic test is IgM Immunofluorescence assay (IFA). This study evaluated the InBios Scrub Typhus Detect™ Immunoglobulin M (IgM) ELISA and IgM Immunofluorescence assays in single serum sample at the time of admission. Methodology Study participants (1585 suspected cases), were enrolled based on acute febrile illness with suspected scrub typhus cases in central Nepal from April 2017 to March 2018. Blood sample was collected from the suspected patients of scrub typhus, presenting with acute febrile illness. IgM antibody to Orientia tsusugamushi was detected by using Scrub Typhus Detect™ Kit (In Bios International, USA) and an in-house IgM IFA (Australian Rickettsial Reference Laboratory, Geelong, Australia. The IFA assay was performed with the Gilliam, Karp, Kato strains and O. chuto antigens following the ARRL protocol. Result Statistical analysis of ELISA IgM results when compared to reference test, IgM IFA results demonstrated the following characteristics, sensitivity 84.0% (95%CI: 79.73%-87.68%), specificity 94.82% (95% CI: 93.43%-95.99%), positive likelihood ratio 16.21% (95% CI: 12.71%-20.67%), negative likelihood ratio 0.17% (95% CI: 0.13-0.21%), disease prevalence 22.08% (95% CI: 20.06%-24.21%), positive predictive value 82.12% (95% CI: 78.28-85.42%) and negative predictive value 95.44% (95% CI: 94.27%-96.38%) respectively. Conclusion The study indicated that the IgM ELISA has the sensitivity 84.0% (95% CI: 79.73%-87.68%) and specificity 94.82% (95% CI: 93.43%-95.99%). Although IgM IFA is considered the gold standard test for the diagnosis of scrub typhus cases, it is relatively expensive, requires trained personal and a microscope with fluorescence filters. Scrub typhus IgM ELISA with appropriate OD cut–off values may be the best alternative test and possible viable option for resource limited endemic countries like Nepal.

Download Full-text

How Malleable is the ‘Gold Standard’?: A Case Study in Respect of South Africa’s Access to Information Regime

Proceedings of the Annual Conference of CAIS / Actes du congrès annuel de l'ACSI ◽

10.29173/cais655 ◽

2013 ◽

Author(s):

Wilhelm Peekhaus

Keyword(s):

South African ◽

Gold Standard ◽

Genetically Engineered ◽

Access To Information ◽

Government Information ◽

Genetically Engineered Plants ◽

Société Civile ◽

Environmental Organisation ◽

Information Regime

This paper examines the difficulties encountered by Biowatch, a South African civil society environmental organisation, in its attempts to obtain access to government information in respect of genetically engineered plants. The elaboration of the case is based on interviews conducted with the Director of Biowatch and the organisation’s legal counsel.Cette communication porte sur les difficultés rencontrées par Biowatch, une organisation environnementale de la société civile sud-africaine, lors de ses tentatives d’obtenir accès aux données gouvernementales relativement aux plantes issues du génie génétique. L’élaboration du cas se base sur des entrevues menées auprès du directeur de Biowatch et le conseiller juridique de l’organisation.

Download Full-text