An integrated gas supply reliability evaluation method of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 107651
Author(s):  
Weichao Yu ◽  
Weihe Huang ◽  
Yunhao Wen ◽  
Yichen Li ◽  
Hongfei Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Reliability Evaluation ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Gas Supply

Using Machine Learning Tools for Forecasting Natural Gas Market Demand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Yang ◽  
Lei Hou
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Error Evaluation ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Gas Supply

Abstract Providing reliable and accurate forecasts of natural gas consumption can keep supply and demand of natural gas pipelines in balance, which can increase profits and reduce supply risks. In order to accurately predict the short-term load demand of different gas nodes in the natural gas pipeline network, a hybrid optimization strategy of integrated genetic optimization algorithm and support vector machine are proposed. Factors such as holidays, date types and weather were taken into account to build a natural gas daily load prediction model based on GA-SVM was established. A natural gas pipeline network in China includes three gas supply nodes of different user type gas is forecasted, and a variety of error evaluation method, the GA-SVM evaluation index compared with other prediction methods, and through different data set partition is discussed in the periods of peak gas and gas resources in the GA — the applicability of the SVM prediction model, the ends of a natural gas pipeline network in China includes four gas supply nodes of different user type gas is forecasted, and a variety of error evaluation method, the GA-SVM evaluation index compared with other prediction methods, The applicability of the method is also discussed by dividing different data sets. By predicting the gas load forecast of the three nodes, the results show that GA-SVM hybrid prediction model has high prediction accuracy compared with other single models, and the three gas nodes MAPE of GA-SVM is respectively 3.66%, 5.17% and 3.43%. Through further analysis, even with the data samples reduced, the winter gas peak of gas prediction can still maintain good prediction effects. The research shows that the GA-SVM model has high accuracy and strong applicability in predicting gas consumption at different nodes of the natural gas pipeline network. This study can provide a research basis for analysis of gas supply uncertainty and further gas supply reliability evaluation of pipeline network.

scholarly journals GPU-accelerated hydraulic simulations of large-scale natural gas pipeline networks based on a two-level parallel process

2020 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 86
Author(s):  
Yue Xiang ◽  
Peng Wang ◽  
Bo Yu ◽  
Dongliang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Parallel Simulation ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Processing Unit ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Pipeline Networks ◽  
Speedup Ratio

The numerical simulation efficiency of large-scale natural gas pipeline network is usually unsatisfactory. In this paper, Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-accelerated hydraulic simulations for large-scale natural gas pipeline networks are presented. First, based on the Decoupled Implicit Method for Efficient Network Simulation (DIMENS) method, presented in our previous study, a novel two-level parallel simulation process and the corresponding parallel numerical method for hydraulic simulations of natural gas pipeline networks are proposed. Then, the implementation of the two-level parallel simulation in GPU is introduced in detail. Finally, some numerical experiments are provided to test the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method has notable speedup. For five large-scale pipe networks, compared with the well-known commercial simulation software SPS, the speedup ratio of the proposed method is up to 57.57 with comparable calculation accuracy. It is more inspiring that the proposed method has strong adaptability to the large pipeline networks, the larger the pipeline network is, the larger speedup ratio of the proposed method is. The speedup ratio of the GPU method approximately linearly depends on the total discrete points of the network.

Gas Supply Reliability Analysis of a Natural Gas Pipeline System Considering the Effects of Demand Side Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yichen Li ◽  
Jing Gong ◽  
Weichao Yu ◽  
Weihe Huang ◽  
Kai Wen
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Demand Side Management ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Classification Rule ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
User Classification ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Supply Reliability

Abstract At present, China has a developing natural gas market, and ensuring the security of gas supply is an issue of high concern. Gas supply reliability, the natural gas pipeline system's ability to satisfy the market demand, is determined by both supply side and demand side and is usually adopted by the researches to measure the security of gas supply. In the previous study, the demand side is usually simplified by using load duration curve (LDC) to describe the demand, which neglects the effect of demand side management. The simplification leads to the inaccurate and unreasonable assessment of the gas supply reliability, especially in high-demand situation. To overcome this deficiency and achieve a more reasonable result of gas supply reliability, this paper extends the previous study on demand side by proposing a novel method of management on natural gas demand side, and the effects of demand side management on gas supply reliability is analyzed. The management includes natural gas prediction models for different types of users, the user classification rule, and the demand adjustment model based on user classification. First, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a support vector machine (SVM) model are applied to predict the natural gas demand for different types of users, such as urban gas distributor (including residential customer, commercial customer, small industrial customer), power plant, large industrial customer, and compressed natural gas (CNG) station. Then, the user classification rule is built based on users' attribute and impact of supplied gas's interruption or reduction. Natural gas users are classified into four levels. (1) demand fully satisfied, (2) demand slightly reduced, (3) demand reduced, and (4) demand interrupted. The user classification rule also provides the demand reduction range of different users. Moreover, the optimization model of demand adjustment is built, and the objective of the model is to maximize the amount of gas supplied to each user based on the classification rule. The constraints of the model are determined by the classification rule, including the demand reduction range of different users. Finally, the improved method of gas supply reliability assessment is developed and is applied to the case study of our previous study derived from a realistic natural gas pipeline system operated by PetroChina to analyze the effects of demand side management on natural gas pipeline system's gas supply reliability.

scholarly journals A Robustness Evaluation Method of Natural Gas Pipeline Network Based on Topological Structure Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueyi Li ◽  
Huai Su ◽  
Jinjun Zhang ◽  
Nan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Topological Structure ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Random Disturbances ◽  
Component Failures

As the total mileage of natural gas pipeline network continues to increase, the topological structure of natural gas pipeline network will become more and more complex. The complicated topological structure of natural gas pipeline network is likely to cause inherent structural defects, which have serious impacts on the safe operation of natural gas pipeline network. At present, related researches mainly focused on the safe and reliable operation of natural gas pipeline network, which has become a research hotspot, but few of them considered the complexity of natural gas pipeline network and its potential impacts. In order to understand the complexity of natural gas pipeline network and its behaviors when facing structural changes, this paper studied the robustness of natural gas pipeline network based on complex network theory. This paper drew on the methods and experience of robustness researches in other related fields, and proposed a robustness evaluation method for natural gas pipeline network which is combined with its operation characteristics. The robustness evaluation method of natural gas pipeline network is helpful to identify the key components of the pipeline network and understand the response of the pipeline network to structural changes. Furthermore, it can provide a theoretical reference for the safe and stable operation of natural gas pipeline network. The evaluation results show that natural gas pipeline network shows strong robustness when faced with random disturbances represented by pipeline accidents or component failures caused by natural disasters, and when faced with targeted disturbances represented by terrorist disturbances, the robustness of natural gas pipeline network is very weak. Natural gas pipeline network behaves differently in the face of different types of random disturbances. Natural gas pipeline network is more robust when faced with component failures than pipeline accidents caused by natural disasters.

A Systematic Methodology to Assess Hydraulic Reliability and Gas Supply Reliability of the Natural Gas Pipeline Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weichao Yu ◽  
Jing Gong ◽  
Weihe Huang ◽  
Hongfei Liu ◽  
Fuhua Dang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Hydraulic Characteristic ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Hydraulic Reliability ◽  
Supply Reliability

Abstract Reliability of the natural gas pipeline network is related to security of gas supply directly. According to the different required functions of the natural gas pipeline network, its reliability is divided into three aspects, namely mechanical reliability, hydraulic reliability, and gas supply reliability. However, most of the previous studies confused the definitions of the hydraulic reliability and gas supply reliability. Moreover, the uncertainty in the process of supplying natural gas to the targeted market and the hydraulic characteristic of the natural gas pipeline network are often ignored. Therefore, a methodology to assess hydraulic reliability and gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network is developed in the study, and the uncertainty and hydraulic characteristic of the natural gas pipeline network are both considered. The methodology consists of four parts: establishment of the indicator system, calculation of the gas supply, prediction of the market demand, and assessment of the hydraulic reliability and gas supply reliability. Moreover, a case study is applied to confirm the feasibility of the methodology, and the reliability evaluation results provide a comprehensive picture about the abilities of the natural gas pipeline network to perform the specified gas supply function and satisfy consumers' demand, respectively. Furthermore, a comparison between these two types of reliability is presented. The results indicate that the natural gas pipeline network may not be able to meet the market demand even if the system completes the required gas supply tasks due to the impact of the market demand uncertainty.

Gas Supply Reliability Analysis of a Natural Gas Pipeline System Considering the Effects of Demand Side Management

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yichen Li ◽  
Jing Gong ◽  
Weichao Yu ◽  
Weihe Huang ◽  
Kai Wen
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Demand Side Management ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Classification Rule ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
User Classification ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Supply Reliability

Abstract At present, China has a developing natural gas market, and ensuring the security of gas supply is an issue of high concern. Gas supply reliability, the natural gas pipeline system’s ability to satisfy the market demand, is determined by both supply side and demand side, and is usually adopted by the researches to measure the security of gas supply. In the previous study, the demand side is usually simplified by using load duration curve (LDC) to describe the demand, which neglects the effect of demand side management. The simplification leads to the inaccurate and unreasonable assessment of the gas supply reliability, especially in high demand situation. To overcome this deficiency and achieve a more reasonable result of gas supply reliability, this paper extends the previous study on demand side by proposing a novel method of management on natural gas demand side, and the effects of demand side management on gas supply reliability is analyzed. The management includes natural gas prediction models for different types of users, the user classification rule, and the demand adjustment model based on user classification. Firstly, An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a support vector machine (SVM) model are applied to predict the natural gas demand for different types of users, such as urban gas distributor (including residential customer, commercial customer, small industrial customer), power plant, large industrial customer, and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) station. Then, the user classification rule is built based on users’ attribute and impact of supplied gas’s interruption or reduction. Natural gas users are classified into four levels. (1) Demand Fully Satisfied; (2) Demand Slightly Reduced; (3) Demand Reduced; (4) Demand Interrupted. The user classification rule also provides the demand reduction range of different users. Moreover, the optimization model of demand adjustment is built, and the objective of the model is to maximize the amount of gas supply for each user based on the classification rule. The constraints of the model are determined by the classification rule, including the demand reduction range of different users. Finally, the improved method of gas supply reliability assessment is developed, and is applied to the case study of our previous study derived from a realistic natural gas pipeline system operated by PetroChina to analyze the effects of demand side management on natural gas pipeline system’s gas supply reliability.

A Methodology to Assess the Gas Supply Capacity and Gas Supply Reliability of a Natural Gas Pipeline Network System

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weichao Yu ◽  
Kai Wen ◽  
Yichen Li ◽  
Weihe Huang ◽  
Jing Gong
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Network System ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Supply Capacity ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Supply Reliability

Natural gas pipeline network system is a critical infrastructure connecting gas resource and market, which is composed with the transmission pipeline system, underground gas storage (UGS) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal demand. A methodology to assess the gas supply capacity and gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system is developed in this paper. Due to random failure and maintenance action of the components in the pipeline network system, the system can be in a number of operating states. The methodology is able to simulate the state transition process and the duration of each operating state based on a Monte Carlo approach. After the system transits to other states, the actual flow rate will change accordingly. The hydraulic analysis, which includes thermal-hydraulic simulation and maximum flow algorithm, is applied to analyze the change law of the actual flow rate. By combining the hydraulic analysis into the simulation of the state transition process, gas supply capacity of the pipeline network system is quantified. Furthermore, considering the uncertainty of market demand, the load duration curve (LDC) method is employed to predict the amount of demand for each consumer node. The gas supply reliability is then calculated by comparing the gas supply capacity with market demand. Finally, a detailed procedure for gas supply capacity and gas supply reliability assessment of a natural gas pipeline network system is presented, and its feasibility is confirmed with a case study. In the case study, the impact of market demand uncertainty on gas supply reliability is investigated in detail.

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