Random and Markov switching exponential smoothing models

2022 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 121268
Author(s):  
Mike G. Tsionas
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimo Guidolin ◽  
Francesco Melloni ◽  
Manuela Pedio

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanduo Zhang ◽  
Xiaona Wang ◽  
Hui Gong ◽  
Xin Liu ◽  
Huijuan Chen ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Britta Gehrke ◽  
Enzo Weber

This chapter discusses how the effects of structural labour market reforms depend on whether the economy is in expansion or recession. Based on an empirical time series model with Markov switching that draws on search and matching theory, we propose a novel identification of reform outcomes and distinguish the effects of structural reforms that increase the flexibility of the labour market in distinct phases of the business cycle. We find in applications to Germany and Spain that reforms which are implemented in recessions have weaker expansionary effects in the short run. For policymakers, these results emphasize the costs of introducing labour market reforms in recessions.


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