The Stabilizing Effects of Publishing Strategic Central Bank Projections

Expectations are among the main driving forces for economic dynamics. Therefore, managing expectations has become a primary objective for monetary policy seeking to stabilize the business cycle. In this paper, we study whether central banks can manage private-sector expectations by means of publishing one-period ahead inflation projections in a New Keynesian learning-to-forecast experiment. Subjects in the experiment observe these projections along with the historic development of the economy and subsequently submit their own one-period ahead inflation forecasts. In this context, we find that the central bank can significantly manage private-sector expectations and that this management strongly supports monetary policy in stabilizing the economy. Moreover, published central bank inflation projections drastically reduce the probability of a deflationary spiral after strong negative shocks to the economy.

LEGAL PRACTICES OF INSOLVENCY AND BANKRUPTCY IN INDIA

Bankruptcies have historically followed the business cycle closely. Failure of certain company strategies is a natural part of the market economy’s process. When a firm fails, the optimum outcome for society is a quick renegotiation between financiers, to fund the going concern with a new structure of obligations and a new management team. The purpose of bankruptcy legislation is to recover an entity’s debt and distribute its assets among competing claimholders. As a result, the RBI’s asset quality reviewers identified an extremely high number of NPAs. The government’s most major change is the insolvency and bankruptcy legislation. On the heels of the adoption of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, India jumpedfrom 108thto 52nd in the resolving insolvency category, while its rating improved significantly in dealing with construction permits to 27th from 52nd and trading across borders to 68th from 80th. The purpose of this study is to look into the regulatory framework in India for insolvency and bankruptcy. The impact of insolvency and bankruptcy Code on the Indian economy is also discussed in the study. KEYWORDS: Insolvency, Bankruptcy, Code, Regulatory, SARFAESI Act, National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT)

Analysis Control Of Inventory Of Non Subsidy Fertilizer Merchandise With Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Method In CV. Dohar Agro Mandiri

Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) is a mathematical model that determines the number of items that must be ordered to meet the projected demand, with minimized inventory costs. The types of costs to run the business cycle are storage costs and ordering costs. The purpose of this research is to analyze "Analysis of Non-Subsidized Fertilizer Inventory Control with Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Method at CV. Dohar Agro Mandiri. The total inventory obtained using the EOQ method is 11,003 with a purchase frequency of 3 times. Using the EOQ method the company must reorder when the merchandise inventory is 1,015 zak, with the EOQ method the maximum inventory that the company must maintain is 12,018 per day. The total inventory cost of fertilizer merchandise inventory is 24,648. In other words, inventory control using the EOQ method can help companies achieve an optimal level of inventory ordering and ordering frequency.

Do COVID-19 Lock-Downs Affect Business Cycle? Analysis Using Energy Consumption Cycle Clock for Selected European Countries

On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared the COVID-19 epidemic to be a global pandemic. This was a consequence of the rapid increase in the number of people with positive test results, the increase in deaths due to COVID-19, and the lack of pharmaceutical drugs. Governments introduced national lockdowns, which have impacted both energy consumption and economies. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: do COVID-19 lockdowns affect the business cycle? We used the cycle clock approach to assess the magnitude of decrease in electricity consumption in the three waves of the epidemic, namely, April 2020, November 2021, and April 2021. Additionally, we checked the relation between energy consumption and GDP by means of spectral analysis. Results for selected 28 European countries confirm an impact of the introduced non-pharmaceutical interventions on both energy consumption and business cycle. The reduction of restrictions in subsequent pandemic waves increased electricity consumption, which suggests movement out of the economic recession.

Collateral Shocks

We estimate a macroeconomic model on US data where banks lend to households and businesses and simultaneously adjust lending requirements on the two types of loans. We find that the collateral shock, a change in the ability of the financial sector to redeploy collateral, is the most important force driving the business cycle. Hit by this unique disturbance, our model quantitatively replicates the joint dynamics of output, consumption, investment, employment, and both household and business credit quantities and spreads. The estimated collateral shock generates accurate movements in lending standards and tracks measures of market sentiment. (JEL E21, E23, E24, E32, E44, G21)

Business Cycles and Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach

This study revisits the relationship between economic variables and alcohol consumption from a macro perspective. Focusing explicitly on the asymmetries of the responsiveness of alcohol consumption during the expansion and contraction phases of the business cycle, asymmetric panel estimators are employed. We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for a panel of 24 countries for the period 1961 to 2014. Findings show that expansion leads to a long-term increase in average alcohol consumption, while during contraction, the level of average alcohol consumption persists. Expansion, together with a pronounced reduction in the unemployment rate could, however, lead to a net reduction of gross alcohol and wine consumption. Nonetheless, if the recession corresponds with a surge in unemployment, this leads to a long-run increase in the level of total gross alcohol consumption but a decrease in wine and beer consumption. Reduction in unemployment does not lead to a reduction in beer consumption, as pre-expansion levels of beer consumption persist. (JEL Classifications: E32, I19, L66)

Cykl koniunkturalny w Turcji w latach 2005–2020 — interpretacja austriackiej szkoły ekonomii

Turkey was hit by the recession, defined in a classic way (as negative real GDP growth lasting at least two quarters), three times over the discussed period. The main goal of the central bank of Turkey is to keep inflation as close as possible to the inflation target. The use of the interest rate as a tool to stabilize the economic situation is therefore limited. The country has experienced periods of high inflation which was not temporary, but long-term. Using the approach appropriate to the Austrian School of Economics, the article analyzes the behavior of the Turkish economy in 2005–2020. In the discussed time horizon, two phases of the business cycle have been identified according to the Austrian School of Economics — the first from 2005 to the first quarter of 2014, and the second from the second quarter of 2014 to 2020. It can be assumed that the Turkish economy will enter the third phase of the business cycle in the near future, although it is difficult to determine when it will happen.

Dynamic modelling of corporate credit ratings and defaults

In this article, we propose a longitudinal multivariate model for binary and ordinal outcomes to describe the dynamic relationship among firm defaults and credit ratings from various raters. The latent probability of default is modelled as a dynamic process which contains additive firm-specific effects, a latent systematic factor representing the business cycle and idiosyncratic observed and unobserved factors. The joint set-up also facilitates the estimation of a bias for each rater which captures changes in the rating standards of the rating agencies. Bayesian estimation techniques are employed to estimate the parameters of interest. Several models are compared based on their out-of-sample prediction ability and we find that the proposed model outperforms simpler specifications. The joint framework is illustrated on a sample of publicly traded US corporates which are rated by at least one of the credit rating agencies S&P, Moody's and Fitch during the period 1995–2014.