Purpose To identify factors predictive of poor prognosis in a similarly treated population of women with stage IV epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Patients and Methods A retrospective review of 360 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage IV EOC who underwent primary surgery followed by six cycles of intravenous platinum/paclitaxel was performed. A proportional hazards model was used to assess the association of potential prognostic factors with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results The median PFS and OS for this group of stage IV ovarian cancer patients was 12 and 29 months, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that histology, malignant pleural effusion, intraparenchymal liver metastasis, and residual tumor size were significant prognostic variables. Whereas patients with microscopic residual disease had the best outcome, patients with 0.1 to 1.0 cm residual disease and patients with 1.1 to 5.0 cm residual disease had similar PFS and OS. Patients with a residual size more than 5 cm had a diminished PFS and OS when compared with all other groups. Median OS for microscopic, 0.1 to 5.0 cm, and more than 5.0 cm residual disease was 64, 30, and 19 months, respectively. Conclusion Patients with more than 5 cm residual disease have the shortest PFS and OS, whereas patients with 0.1 to 1.0 and 1.1 to 5.0 cm have similar outcome. These findings suggest that ultraradical cytoreductive procedures might be targeted for selected patients in whom microscopic residual disease is achievable. Patients with less than 5.0 cm of disease initially and significant disease and/or comorbidities precluding microscopic cytoreduction may be considered for alternative therapeutic options other than primary cytoreduction.
Predictive modeling for determination of microscopic residual disease at primary cytoreduction: An NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group 182 Study