A Model Fusion Approach to Support Negotiations during Complex Engineering System Design

CIRP Annals ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.C.-Y. Lu ◽  
D. Li ◽  
J. Cheng ◽  
C.L. Wu
Author(s):  
Lukman Irshad ◽  
H. Onan Demirel ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Guillaume Brat

Abstract While a majority of system vulnerabilities such as performance losses and accidents are attributed to human errors, a closer inspection would reveal that often times the accumulation of unforeseen events that include both component failures and human errors contribute to such system failures. Human error and functional failure reasoning (HEFFR) is a framework to identify potential human errors, functional failures, and their propagation paths early in design so that systems can be designed to be less prone to vulnerabilities. In this paper, the application of HEFFR within the complex engineering system domain is demonstrated through the modeling of the Air France 447 crash. Then, the failure prediction algorithm is validated by comparing the outputs from HEFFR and what happened in the actual crash. Also, two additional fault scenarios are executed within HEFFR and in a commercially available flight simulator separately, and the outcomes are compared as a supplementary validation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1418-1429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arinan De P. Dourado ◽  
Fran S. Lobato ◽  
Aldemir Ap Cavalini ◽  
Valder Steffen

Author(s):  
Kurt Hacker ◽  
Kemper Lewis

Abstract In this paper we introduce a methodology to reduce the effects of uncertainty in the design of a complex engineering system involving multiple decision makers. We focus on the uncertainty that is created when a disciplinary designer or design team must try and predict or model the behavior of other disciplinary subsystems. The design of a complex system is performed by many different designers and teams, each of which only have control over a small portion of the entire system. Modeling the interaction among these decision makers and reducing the uncertainty caused by the lack of global control is the focus of this paper. We use well developed concepts from the field of game theory to describe the interactions taking place, and concepts from robust design to reduce the effects of one decision-maker on another. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is also used to reduce the complexity of the interaction analysis while preserving behavior of the systems. The design of a passenger aircraft is used to illustrate the approach, and some encouraging results are discussed.


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