Validating a Traffic Conflict Prediction Technique for Motorways Using a Simulation Approach

With the ever-increasing advancements in the technology of driver assistant systems, there is a need for a comprehensive way to identify traffic conflicts to avoid collisions. Although significant research efforts have been devoted to traffic conflict techniques applied for junctions, there is dearth of research on these methods for motorways. This paper presents the validation of a traffic conflict prediction algorithm applied to a motorway scenario in a simulated environment. An automatic video analysis system was developed to identify lane change and rear-end conflicts as ground truth. Using these conflicts, the prediction ability of the traffic conflict technique was validated in an integrated simulation framework. This framework consisted of a sub-microscopic simulator, which provided an appropriate testbed to accurately simulate the components of an intelligent vehicle, and a microscopic traffic simulator able to generate the surrounding traffic. Results from this framework show that for a 10% false alarm rate, approximately 80% and 73% of rear-end and lane change conflicts were accurately predicted, respectively. Despite the fact that the algorithm was not trained using the virtual data, the sensitivity was high. This highlights the transferability of the algorithm to similar road networks, providing a benchmark for the identification of traffic conflict and a relevant step for developing safety management strategies for autonomous vehicles.

Group Relationship Mining of College Students Based on Predictive Social Network

With the rapid development of the Internet, social networks have shown an unprecedented development trend among college students. Closer social activities among college students have led to the emergence of college students with new social characteristics. The traditional method of college students’ group classification can no longer meet the current demand. Therefore, this paper proposes a social network link prediction method-combination algorithm, which combines neighbor information and a random block. By mining the social networks of college students’ group relationships, the classification of college students’ groups can be realized. Firstly, on the basis of complex network theory, the essential relationship of college student groups under a complex network is analyzed. Secondly, a new combination algorithm is proposed by using the simplest linear combination method to combine the proximity link prediction based on neighbor information and the likelihood analysis link prediction based on a random block. Finally, the proposed combination algorithm is verified by using the social data of college students’ networks. Experimental results show that, compared with the traditional link prediction algorithm, the proposed combination algorithm can effectively dig out the group characteristics of social networks and improve the accuracy of college students’ association classification.

Vehicle Motion State Prediction Method Integrating Point Cloud Time Series Multiview Features and Multitarget Interactive Information

A vehicle motion state prediction algorithm integrating point cloud timing multiview features and multitarget interaction information is proposed in this work to effectively predict the motion states of traffic participants around intelligent vehicles in complex scenes. The algorithm analyzes the characteristics of object motion that are affected by the surrounding environment and the interaction of nearby objects and is based on the complex traffic environment perception dual multiline light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology. The time sequence aerial view map and time sequence front view depth map are obtained using real-time point cloud information perceived by the LiDAR. Time sequence high-level abstract combination features in the multiview scene are then extracted by an improved VGG19 network model and are fused with the potential spatiotemporal interaction of the multitarget operation state data extraction features detected by the laser radar by using a one-dimensional convolution neural network. A temporal feature vector is constructed as the input data of the bidirectional long-term and short-term memory (BiLSTM) network, and the desired input-output mapping relationship is trained to predict the motion state of traffic participants. According to the test results, the proposed BiLSTM model based on point cloud multiview and vehicle interaction information is better than other methods in predicting the state of target vehicles. The results can provide support for the research to evaluate the risk of intelligent vehicle operation environment.

Validation of onco-assist survival prediction tool in stage I, II and IIIcolon cancer among Asian patients

Clinical calculators and predictors are now commonly used in clinical practice to predict most accurate clinical outcome and provide guidance for appropriate therapy. One of the most used calculator is Onco-assist. This study was conducted to compare onco-assist prediction of the patients diagnosed with colon cancer Stage I, II and III. Data was retrospectively collected from 88 patients of colon cancer diagnosed over the period of 11 years (2008 to 2018) and registered at Nuclear Institute of medicine and radiotherapy (NIMRA), Hospital, Jamshoro Sindh. These patients received primary surgical therapy without any neo-adjuvant systemic chemotherapy. Survival assessed on onco-assist prediction algorithm using the defined parameters and compared with the actual survival according to the grade of the tumour. The clinical calculator onco-assist incorporated seven variables: gender, age number of lymph nodes examined, number of tumor-involved lymph nodes, T = (1-4), grade (low / high), adjuvant chemo received (yes / no) if yes then only 5FU or 5FU plus Oxaliplatin based. Onco-assist predicted five-year survival rate in well differentiated tumours with and without chemotherapy as 84% and 80% respectively, in moderately differentiated tumour with and without chemotherapy as 78% and 76% respectively. For poorly differentiated tumours the predicted survival rate with and without chemotherapy was 73%. While actual achieved survival was 35%, 52% and 17% for well, moderately and poorly differentiated cancers. This clinical calculator onco-assist includes limited parameters and limited adjuvant therapy options thus the prediction of cancer survival following surgery in stage I –III colon cancer does not appear to accurately predict outcome in Asian population.

Forecasting of Electricity Demand by Hybrid ANN-PSO under Shadow of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Here in the research paper, we did not use smart methods to predict the future but rather to show the impact of the pandemic, we used the hybrid method using the PSO-ANN algorithm to demonstrate the impact of COVID-19 on electricity consumption and to demonstrate that we used two basic steps. The first step is to demonstrate that the hybrid method is effective for prediction. We showed that the prediction for 2019 was good, and that was before the onset of COVID-19. As for the second step, we applied the same hybrid algorithm after the emergence of COVID-19, i.e. for 2020, to note the difference between the prediction and the current pregnancy, which represents the impact of this epidemic, and this prediction in the short term. A short-term role in the operation of a power system in terms of achieving an economical electrical output and avoiding losses or outages. We've collected four consecutive years of data that is downloaded every quarter-hour of the day. Electricity consumption in Algeria is used as an input to the PSO-ANN learning algorithm. The results of the PSO-ANN pregnancy prediction algorithm have better accuracy than the ANN prediction. In the future but with the emergence of a pandemic that has had a clear difference and represents economic losses in the field of electricity, the epidemic should be viewed as a short-term variable to reduce the level of energy loss and generation cost.

Travel Time Prediction and Explanation with Spatio-Temporal Features: A Comparative Study

Travel time information is used as input or auxiliary data for tasks such as dynamic navigation, infrastructure planning, congestion control, and accident detection. Various data-driven Travel Time Prediction (TTP) methods have been proposed in recent years. One of the most challenging tasks in TTP is developing and selecting the most appropriate prediction algorithm. The existing studies that empirically compare different TTP models only use a few models with specific features. Moreover, there is a lack of research on explaining TTPs made by black-box models. Such explanations can help to tune and apply TTP methods successfully. To fill these gaps in the current TTP literature, using three data sets, we compare three types of TTP methods (ensemble tree-based learning, deep neural networks, and hybrid models) and ten different prediction algorithms overall. Furthermore, we apply XAI (Explainable Artificial Intelligence) methods (SHAP and LIME) to understand and interpret models’ predictions. The prediction accuracy and reliability for all models are evaluated and compared. We observed that the ensemble learning methods, i.e., XGBoost and LightGBM, are the best performing models over the three data sets, and XAI methods can adequately explain how various spatial and temporal features influence travel time.