Fractional Cointegration and the False Rejection of the Law of One Price in International Commodity Markets

1998 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samarendu Mohanty ◽  
E. Wesley F. Peterson ◽  
Darnell B. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Law Of One Price ◽  
Fractional Cointegration ◽  
International Commodity ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Law ◽  
False Rejection

AbstractThis study examines the Law of One Price (LOP) in international commodity markets using fractional cointegration analysis. For proper evaluation of the LOP, fractional cointegration analysis seems to be appropriate because of its flexibility in capturing a wider range of mean reversion behavior than standard cointegration analysis. Out of nine pairs of price series examined, fractional cointegration supports the existence of the LOP in eight cases, as compared to three cases using standard cointegration procedures. Overall, these results suggest that there is a long-run tendency for the LOP to hold for commodity prices.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

Purchasing Power Parity and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Commodity Prices in Asian Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
ABM Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Law Of One Price ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The Law

Almost all previous studies that have tested the law of one price or Purchasing Power Parity theory (PPP) have used either real effective exchange rates or bilateral real exchange rates which are constructed using CPI or PPI data. Most of these studies have failed to support the PPP mostly due to aggregation bias. A few recent studies, have, therefore used commodity prices in different countries and have provided strong support for the theory. These studies have mostly used data from industrial countries. In this paper, we use individual prices of 52 retail items from 15 cities in Asia and test for stationarity of the real exchange rate and speed of adjustment. We provide support for PPP in 63% of the cases. We also find that using individual prices lead to faster convergence of real rates toward their PPP values.

scholarly journals Ley de precio único en el mercado español del aceite de oliva

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
José Ángel Roldán Casas ◽  
Rafaela Dios-Palomares
Keyword(s):  
Olive Oil ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Law Of One Price ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
The Law ◽  
Multivariate Cointegration

The aim of this paper is the study of long-run market integration of olive oil in Spain and the testing of the Law of One Price (LOP) in this market. The study is carried out using multivariate cointegration methodology and applied to monthly data on olive oil prices in Spain (1987-2001) corresponding to the regions considered by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The results show that Spanish olive oil markets are highly integrated with the Northeast being the leading market. However, perfect integration cannot be accepted.

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