Extreme Event Recurrence Time Distributions and Long Memory

Author(s):  
M. S. Santhanam
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Marani ◽  
Gabriel Katul ◽  
William Pan ◽  
Anthony Parolari

<p>Human-natural processes that generate extreme events with large financial, social, and health consequences,  are inherently non-stationary due to ever-changing anthropogenic pressures and societal exposure. The issues posed by non-stationarity are recognized and addressed in Earth system science.  However, extensive epidemiological information remains fragmented and virtually unexplored from this perspective due to the lack of approaches to leverage observations of a heterogeneous past. To address this gap, we assembled a long historical record (1600-present) of infectious disease epidemics from the literature.  This new record enabled the development and applications of methods to quantify the time-varying probability of occurrence of extreme epidemic events. We define the intensity of epidemic events, the number of deaths/time/global population, and find that observations from several hundred years, covering almost four orders of magnitude of epidemic intensity, follow a probability distribution  with a slowly-decaying power-law tail (Generalized Pareto Distribution, asymptotic exponent = -0.705). To the contrary, the yearly number of epidemics is non-stationary, implying that conventional extreme value analyses are inappropriate.  We find that the rate of occurrence of extreme epidemics varies nine-fold over centennial time scales, from about 0.4 to 3.6 epidemics/year. As a result, yearly occurrence probabilities of extreme epidemics are far from constant:  The intensity computed for the most extreme event on record – the “Spanish Influenza” of 1918-1920 – has a probability of occurrence varying from 0.27 to 1.75 %/year in the time frame from 1600 to present. When optimistically assuming that 1 year is required to develop, produce, and begin distributing a vaccine/treatment for a new disease (e.g. the recent COVID-19 case), we estimate that the average recurrence time of a pandemic killing most of the global population is now less than 12,000 years.</p>


1984 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 576-577
Author(s):  
Leonard D. Stern
Keyword(s):  

Bernoulli ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 1473-1503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuyang Bai ◽  
Murad S. Taqqu

Shore & Beach ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 34-43
Author(s):  
Nicole Elko ◽  
Tiffany Roberts Briggs

In partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program (USGS CMHRP) and the U.S. Coastal Research Program (USCRP), the American Shore and Beach Preservation Association (ASBPA) has identified coastal stakeholders’ top coastal management challenges. Informed by two annual surveys, a multiple-choice online poll was conducted in 2019 to evaluate stakeholders’ most pressing problems and needs, including those they felt most ill-equipped to deal with in their day-to-day duties and which tools they most need to address these challenges. The survey also explored where users find technical information and what is missing. From these results, USGS CMHRP, USCRP, ASBPA, and other partners aim to identify research needs that will inform appropriate investments in useful science, tools, and resources to address today’s most pressing coastal challenges. The 15-question survey yielded 134 complete responses with an 80% completion rate from coastal stakeholders such as local community representatives and their industry consultants, state and federal agency representatives, and academics. Respondents from the East, Gulf, West, and Great Lakes coasts, as well as Alaska and Hawaii, were represented. Overall, the prioritized coastal management challenges identified by the survey were: Deteriorating ecosystems leading to reduced (environmental, recreational, economic, storm buffer) functionality, Increasing storminess due to climate change (i.e. more frequent and intense impacts), Coastal flooding, both Sea level rise and associated flooding (e.g. nuisance flooding, king tides), and Combined effects of rainfall and surge on urban flooding (i.e. episodic, short-term), Chronic beach erosion (i.e. high/increasing long-term erosion rates), and Coastal water quality, including harmful algal blooms (e.g. red tide, sargassum). A careful, systematic, and interdisciplinary approach should direct efforts to identify specific research needed to tackle these challenges. A notable shift in priorities from erosion to water-related challenges was recorded from respondents with organizations initially formed for beachfront management. In addition, affiliation-specific and regional responses varied, such as Floridians concern more with harmful algal blooms than any other human and ecosystem health related challenge. The most common need for additional coastal management tools and strategies related to adaptive coastal management to maintain community resilience and continuous storm barriers (dunes, structures), as the top long-term and extreme event needs, respectively. In response to questions about missing information that agencies can provide, respondents frequently mentioned up-to-date data on coastal systems and solutions to challenges as more important than additional tools.


2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Beltratti ◽  
Claudio Morana
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianluca Moretti ◽  
Giulio Nicoletti
Keyword(s):  

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Haldrup ◽  
Morten Ørregaard Nielsen

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