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MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-546
Author(s):  
K. C. SINHA RAY ◽  
M. P. SHEWALE

There are many studies dealing with interannual variability of rainfall in India. There are also studies available dealing with the reduction of food grain production during various drought years in India, Hence, there is along felt need to know about chances whether the next year will be a drought year. It is also seen that during last 11 years when the country as a whole experienced normal rainfall, there were few sub-divisions almost in each year facing a drought situation. The objective of this paper is to find out with the help of nearly 125 years data the probability of occurrence of drought in various sub-divisions of India and the probability of a sub-division facing two or more consecutive droughts, many studies deal with deficiency in all India summer monsoon rainfall and their linkage with El Nino. Effort has also been made in this paper to find out if there is any linkage between El Nino events in Pacific and meteorological drought in various sub-divisions of India. It is seen that eff~t of El Nino on each sub-division of India is different. It is also noticed that all El Nino years are not drought years and all drought years are also not El Nino years. During last 124 years there were 29 El Nino years. Out of these only 14 were drought years. Similarly there were 25 drought years during last 124 years out of which 11 drought years were not connected with El Nino.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 3173
Author(s):  
Gabriel Italo Novaes da Silva ◽  
Pedro José Hermínio ◽  
Antonio Gebson Pinheiro ◽  
Alexandre Maniçoba Da Rosa Ferraz Jardim ◽  
Renan Matheus Cordeiro Leite ◽  
...  

Este trabalho utilizou uma série de dados de precipitação referente ao período de 1973 à 2010 para o município de Castanhal-PA com a finalidade de investigar: 1) os padrões de precipitação; 2) as mudanças de tendência; 3) a ocorrência dos eventos de déficit e excesso de água pelo uso do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI) e suas relações com fenômenos atmosféricos como El Niño e La Niña; 4) a associação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência das chuvas e o tempo de retorno (TR). Para tanto, utilizaram-se dados de chuva obtidos em uma estação pluviométrica da Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). Os dados foram analisados por períodos, tendo sido considerados os intervalos: mensais, trimestrais, anuais ou decadais realizando estatística descritiva, para entendimento da variação sazonal, valores médios, análise da tendência por meio do teste não paramétrico de Mann-Kendall e da ocorrência de valores extremos associados à probabilidade de ocorrência e tempo de retorno. Nossos resultados demonstraram que: a média anual de precipitação para o período estudado foi de 2573,15mm; o intervalo de 2003-2010 foi aquele de menor variação nos valores de precipitação anual. Não foram observadas tendências nos valores de precipitação durante o período analisado. O SPI-1 mostrou boa adequabilidade a ocorrência dos valores extremos de precipitação no local em alguns casos associado aos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña. O maior (4.709,4 mm) e menor (1.379,6 mm) volume de chuva foram observados nos anos de 1994 e 1981, respectivamente, com probabilidade de ocorrência de 3% e TR = 39 anos.    Understanding the Characteristics Associated with Precipitation for a Northeastern Region of Pará: An Analysis of Behavior, Tendency, Extreme Events and Time of Return for the 1973-2010 period A B S T R A C TThis work used a series of precipitation data for the period 1973 to 2010 for the municipality of Castanhal-PA in order to investigate: 1) precipitation patterns; 2) changes in trend; 3) the occurrence of deficit and excess water events using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and its relationship with atmospheric phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña; 4) the association between the probability of rain occurrence and the return time (TR). For this purpose, rainfall data obtained from a rainfall station of the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) were used. Data were analyzed by periods, considering the intervals: monthly, quarterly, annual or decadal performing descriptive statistics, to understand seasonal variation, mean values, trend analysis using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the occurrence of extreme values associated with the probability of occurrence and turnaround time. Our results showed that: the mean annual rainfall for the period studied was 2573.15mm; the 2003-2010 interval was the one with the smallest variation in annual precipitation values. There were no trends in precipitation values during the analyzed period. SPI-1 showed good suitability for the occurrence of extreme precipitation values at the site in some cases associated with the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. The highest (4,709.4 mm) and lowest (1,379.6 mm) volume of rainfall were observed in 1994 and 1981, respectively, with a probability of occurrence of 3% and TR = 39 years.Keywords: Rainfall; Droughts; Floods; Atmospheric phenomena.


Author(s):  
Alex Noel ◽  
Jules Comeau ◽  
Salah-Eddine El Adlouni ◽  
Gaetan Pelletier ◽  
Marie-Andrée Giroux

The recruitment of saplings in forest stands into merchantable stems is a very complex process, thus making it challenging to understand and predict. The recruitment dynamics in the Acadian Forest Region of New Brunswick are not well known or documented. Our objective was to draw an inference from existing large scale routine forest inventories as to the different dynamics behind the recruitment from the sapling layer into the commercial tree size layer in terms of density and occurrence of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) following harvesting, by looking at many factors on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using models. Results suggest that the variation in density and probability of occurrence is best explained by the intensity of silvicultural treatment, by the merchantable stem density in each plot, and by the proportion of merchantable basal area of each group of species. The number of recruits of sugar maple and yellow birch stems tend be higher when time since last treatment increases, when mid to low levels of silvicultural treatment intensity were implemented, and within plots having intermediate levels of merchantable stem density. Lastly, our modeling efforts suggest that the probability of occurrence and density of recruitment of both species tend to increase while its share of merchantable basal area increases.


2021 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 245-255
Author(s):  
Valéria Marques Lemos ◽  
Henrique Cabral ◽  
Stephanie Pasquaud ◽  
João Paes Vieira

The southern population of Mugil liza is distributed from Argentina (47°S) to the state of São Paulo, Brazil (23°S). Young mullets use the estuaries as nursery grounds, and prior to recruitment into estuaries they use the surf zone as a temporary habitat. Based on 12 consecutive months of sampling, this study used generalized linear models (GLM) to analyse the relationships between environmental variables and the presence and relative abundance of young mullets in the surf zone adjacent to six major estuaries in southern Brazil (between 29°S and 33°S). Young mullets were present in all seasons over the sampling period, but the probability of occurrence was higher in winter and was associated with low temperatures. The water temperature alone explained more than half of the total deviance of the GLM models for presence (23%) and abundance (21%) of young mullets in the surf zone. Site 2 (Rio Grande) had lower temperatures in the colder months, the highest probability of occurrence of all collection sites and the greatest abundance (n=3402) of young M. liza, which represented 52% of the total of individuals (n=6493) caught among the six sites sampled.


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-92
Author(s):  
N. CHATTOPADHYAY ◽  
S. SUNITHA DEVI ◽  
GRACY JOHN ◽  
V. R. CHOUDHARI

Among the extreme weather events hailstorm in recent past caused significant crop damage across the country. In 2014 and 2015 unseasonal rains and hailstorms during March and April damaged rabi crops as well as horticultural crops extensively in many parts of the country. In this paper, a detailed analysis of occurrence of hailstorm in four homogenous regions of India during past 35 years from 1981 to 2015 has been made, to find out the climatological and favourable synoptic aspects associated with hailstorms so that timely issuing of warning and Agromet Advisories could minimize the crop damage/loss. Maximum hailstorms were observed to have occurred in Maharashtra (31 years) during the period of study with highest occurrence of 11 days during 24 February to 14 March, 2014. Also Maharashtra is more prone to hailstorms than other States in the country with maximum probability of occurrence         (91-95%) while the probability of occurrence (6-10%) is least in Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Meghalaya, Sikkim and Nagaland. The significant synoptic situations associated with occurrence of hailstorms are found to be the north-south line of wind discontinuity causing convective activity and systems in westerlies. The information generated in this study was found to be very useful in minimizing crop loss through operational agromet services launched by the India Meteorological Department/Ministry of Earth Sciences in collaboration with the Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) located at State Agricultural Universities and institutes of ICAR and IITs under the project Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS).  


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
SURESH RAM ◽  
M. MOHAPATRA

The statistical characteristics like frequencies of occurrence, time of onset, duration, time of dispersal and intensity of fog over Guwahati airport are found out and analysed using 10 years data during 1994-95 to 2003-04 for the months of November to February. Also the interannual and intraseasonal variations of occurrence of fog are analysed by calculating the coefficient of variation of monthly frequency of fog and by calculating the significant periodicities in the daily probability of occurrence of fog respectively. The meteorological parameters at 1200 UTC leading to fog in the following night or morning over Guwahati airport are analysed to find out the precursors for occurrence of fog. Statistical characteristics are given in tables and their significance discussed. It is observed that monitoring of Dew Point Depression (DPD) and surface wind can help prediction of occurrence of fog and its intensity over Guwahati airport.


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-374
Author(s):  
MEDHA KHOLE ◽  
H. R. BISWAS

The thunderstorm activity over Kolkata during pre-monsoon months (March, April and May) has been studied using the radiosonde data of Kolkata (Dumdum). The objective of the study is to examine the utility of Total-Totals Index (TTI) in forecasting occurrence/non-occurrence of thunderstorm over Kolkata. The investigation reveals that Total-Totals Index can be preliminarily used as a predictor to differentiate thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The probability of occurrence of thunderstorm is higher when Total-Totals Index value is higher. While the exact prediction of thunderstorm in all the cases, using the TTI alone, is obviously not possible as TTI alone does not describe the total atmospheric conditions. However, a significant forecast can be furnished by using a threshold value of Total-Totals Index.


Author(s):  
Maryam MIRBAKHSH ◽  
Ghafoor NOORIAN ◽  
Fariba ESMAEILI ◽  
Babak GHAEDNIA ◽  
Parisa HOSSEIN-KHEZRI ◽  
...  

Introduction: Safety, raising awareness, and preventing the occurrence of hazards are necessary in order to continue to improve the quality of laboratory activities, which have been recently considered by scientific, research, and industrial communities. Therefore, the present study was conducted to determine the risk factor, potential hazards, and provide practical programs in the laboratories of the Shrimp Research Institute. Methods: Safety hazards of eight laboratories of the National Shrimp Research Institute were evaluated during the intervention study with the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis technique. To this end, in the first phase, the team of safety experts (HSE: Health and Safety Executive), by preparing and completing safety questionnaire forms, identified the current status of safety indicators and danger points of laboratories, assessed the distance with safety indicators, and managed danger points. Based on risk severity, probability of occurrence, and probability of risk detection, the risk priority number (RPN) was calculated, prioritized, and corrective measures were proposed. In the second phase, after corrective measures, the safety questionnaire was completed again and the level of risk severity, probability of occurrence, probability of detection, risk priority number, risk number, and percentage reduction of risk priority number of the studied laboratories were calculated and analyzed. Results: Thirty-five hazard points were identified in the laboratories. The range of risk priority numbers ranged from RPN = 12 for the Plankton Laboratory to RPN = 210 for the Marine Microbiology Laboratories and Marine Pollutants. After control measures, the risk number of marine microbiology laboratory was reduced to 180 and marine pollutants to 120 (P <0.05). Conclusion: The results showed that FMEA technique is appropriate in identifying the risk points, evaluating, and classifying the risks of the Iran Shrimp Research Institute laboratories and provide control strategies to eliminate or reduce the risk rate of research environments.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0258995
Author(s):  
Daniel Levis ◽  
Francesco Fontana ◽  
Elisa Ughetto

In this paper, we use a Delphi approach to investigate whether, and to what extent, blockchain-based applications might affect firms’ organizations, innovations, and strategies by 2030, and, consequently, which societal areas may be mainly affected. We provide a deep understanding of how the adoption of this technology could lead to changes in Europe over multiple dimensions, ranging from business to culture and society, policy and regulation, economy, and technology. From the projections that reached a significant consensus and were given a high probability of occurrence by the experts, we derive four scenarios built around two main dimensions: the digitization of assets and the change in business models.


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