How Well Does an FV3‐Based Model Predict Precipitation at a Convection‐Allowing Resolution? Results From CAPS Forecasts for the 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed With Different Physics Combinations

Chunxi Zhang; Ming Xue; Timothy A. Supinie; Fanyou Kong; Nathan Snook; Kevin W. Thomas; Keith Brewster; Youngsun Jung; Lucas M. Harris; Shian‐Jiann Lin

doi:10.1029/2018gl081702

How Well Does an FV3‐Based Model Predict Precipitation at a Convection‐Allowing Resolution? Results From CAPS Forecasts for the 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed With Different Physics Combinations

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2018gl081702 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 46 (6) ◽

pp. 3523-3531 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Chunxi Zhang ◽

Ming Xue ◽

Timothy A. Supinie ◽

Fanyou Kong ◽

Nathan Snook ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Test Bed ◽

Hazardous Weather

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Evaluation of a Probabilistic Forecasting Methodology for Severe Convective Weather in the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-14-00163.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 30 (6) ◽

pp. 1551-1570 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Christopher D. Karstens ◽

Greg Stumpf ◽

Chen Ling ◽

Lesheng Hua ◽

Darrel Kingfield ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hazard Identification ◽

Control Test ◽

Test Bed ◽

Probabilistic Forecasting ◽

Test Experiment ◽

Tornado Warnings ◽

Probabilistic Forecasts ◽

Verification Methodology ◽

Convective Weather ◽

Hazardous Weather

Abstract A proposed new method for hazard identification and prediction was evaluated with forecasters in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hazardous Weather Testbed during 2014. This method combines hazard-following objects with forecaster-issued trends of exceedance probabilities to produce probabilistic hazard information, as opposed to the static, deterministic polygon and attendant text product methodology presently employed by the National Weather Service to issue severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Three components of the test bed activities are discussed: usage of the new tools, verification of storm-based warnings and probabilistic forecasts from a control–test experiment, and subjective feedback on the proposed paradigm change. Forecasters were able to quickly adapt to the new tools and concepts and ultimately produced probabilistic hazard information in a timely manner. The probabilistic forecasts from two severe hail events tested in a control–test experiment were more skillful than storm-based warnings and were found to have reliability in the low-probability spectrum. False alarm area decreased while the traditional verification metrics degraded with increasing probability thresholds. The latter finding is attributable to a limitation in applying the current verification methodology to probabilistic forecasts. Relaxation of on-the-fence decisions exposed a need to provide information for hazard areas below the decision-point thresholds of current warnings. Automated guidance information was helpful in combating potential workload issues, and forecasters raised a need for improved guidance and training to inform consistent and reliable forecasts.

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