The Initial Condition Errors Occurring in the Indian Ocean Temperature That Cause “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean

2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (2) ◽  
pp. 1244-1261
Author(s):  
Qian Zhou ◽  
Mu Mu ◽  
Wansuo Duan
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Spring Predictability Barrier ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

scholarly journals Indian Ocean impact on ENSO evolution 2014–2016 in a set of seasonal forecasting experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
The Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of the anomalously warm Indian Ocean state on the unprecedentedly weak Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the unexpected evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 2014–2016. It uses 25-month-long coupled twin forecast experiments with modified Indian Ocean initial conditions sampling observed decadal variations. An unperturbed experiment initialized in Feb 2014 forecasts moderately warm ENSO conditions in year 1 and year 2 and an anomalously weak ITF throughout, which acts to keep tropical Pacific ocean heat content (OHC) anomalously high. Changing only the Indian Ocean to cooler 1997 conditions substantially alters the 2-year forecast of Tropical Pacific conditions. Differences include (i) increased probability of strong El Niño in 2014 and La Niña in 2015, (ii) significantly increased ITF transports and (iii), as a consequence, stronger Pacific ocean heat divergence and thus a reduction of Pacific OHC over the two years. The Indian Ocean’s impact in year 1 is via the atmospheric bridge arising from altered Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Effects of altered ITF and associated ocean heat divergence (oceanic tunnel) become apparent by year 2, including modified ENSO probabilities and Tropical Pacific OHC. A mirrored twin experiment starting from unperturbed 1997 conditions and several sensitivity experiments corroborate these findings. This work demonstrates the importance of the Indian Ocean’s decadal variations on ENSO and highlights the previously underappreciated role of the oceanic tunnel. Results also indicate that, given the physical links between year-to-year ENSO variations, 2-year-long forecasts can provide additional guidance for interpretation of forecasted year-1 ENSO probabilities.

El Nino Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator

Science ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 264 (5155) ◽  
pp. 72-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Tziperman ◽  
L. Stone ◽  
M. A. Cane ◽  
H. Jarosh
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

scholarly journals El Niño arrives in the Pacific Ocean

Nature ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 460 (7253) ◽  
pp. 317-317
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

scholarly journals Meridional Extent and Interannual Variability of the Pacific Ocean Tropical–Subtropical Warm Water Exchange

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher S. Meinen
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Warm Water ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
The South ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Altimetric observations of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) from the TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS satellites, hydrography, and the ECMWF and Florida State University wind products are used to track warm water (≥20°C) as it is exchanged between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the higher latitudes during 1993–2003. The large El Niño event of 1997–98 resulted in a significant discharge of warm water toward the higher latitudes within the interior of the Pacific Ocean. The exchange of anomalous warm water volume with the Northern Hemisphere appears to be blocked under the intertropical convergence zone, consistent with most current ideas on the time-mean tropical–subtropical exchange. Little of the warm water discharged northward across 5° and 8°N during the 1997–98 El Niño event could be traced as far as 10°N. To the south, however, these anomalous volumes of warm water were visible at least as far as 20°S, primarily in the longitudes around 130°–160°W. In both hemispheres most of the warm water appeared to flow westward before returning to the Tropics during the recharge phase of the El Niño–La Niña cycle. The buildup of warm water in the Tropics before the 1997–98 El Niño is shown to be fed primarily by warm water drawn from the region in the western Pacific within 5°S–15°N. The exchange cycle between the equatorial band and the higher latitudes north of the equator leads the cycle in the south by 6–8 months. These results are found in all three datasets used herein, hydrography, altimetric observations of SSHA, and Sverdrup transports calculated from multiple wind products, which demonstrates the robustness of the results.

First record of Hyalascus (Hexactinellida: Rossellidae) from the Indian Ocean, with description of a new species from a volcanic seamount in the Andaman Sea

Zootaxa ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 2667 (1) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
SABYASACHI SAUTYA ◽  
KONSTANTIN R. TABACHNICK ◽  
BABAN INGOLE
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
First Record ◽  
Andaman Sea ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Back Arc ◽  
A New Species

A new species of Hyalascus is described from the submarine volcanic crater seamount of Andaman Back-arc Basin, Indian Ocean. The genus was previously known in the Pacific Ocean only.

El Nino Episode Brews in the Pacific Ocean

Science News ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 140 (6) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
R. Monastersky
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

Interdecadal variability of El Niño onset and its impact on monsoon systems over areas encircling the Pacific Ocean

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (12) ◽  
pp. 7173-7188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaxi Cai ◽  
Jianjun Xu ◽  
Zhaoyong Guan ◽  
Alfred M. Powell
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean
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