A stochastic model of preference change and its application to 1992 presidential election panel data.

This chapter discusses novel descriptive facts on the dynamics of vote choice during presidential election campaigns. Using all available panel data from Brazil and Mexico (plus one from Argentina), it estimates the amount of preference change that occurred in 10 election campaigns. Between any two panel waves, 17 to 45 percent of voters switched across party lines. The chapter then depicts campaign volatility at the national level, using nationwide poll results to show how the horse race unfolded in the four main election cases (Brazil 2002, Brazil 2006, Brazil 2014, and Mexico 2006). These polling trends provide a brief historical background to the election cases and allow one to refute claims that the observed switching is based strictly on individual (and potentially socially isolated) calculations to avoid a wasted vote.

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Awareness, Partisanship and the Post-Convention Bounce: A Memory-Based Model of Post-Convention Presidential Candidate Evaluations Part II—Empirical Results

American Journal of Undergraduate Research ◽

10.33697/ajur.2005.004 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 3 (4) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Justin Grimmer

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Candidate ◽

Presidential Election Of 2000 ◽

Empirical Results ◽

Political Partisanship ◽

The Us ◽

Candidate Evaluations ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

Using Data

This paper continues an analysis, begun in the December 2004 issue, that employed panel data to estimate the effects of awareness and political partisanship on post-convention candidate evaluations. The derivation of a theoretical framework was discussed in Part 1 [1]. Empirical results using data from the US presidential election of 2000 are discussed in the present article. We find that partisans of the opposite party were more resistant to the convention message of Bush than Gore, that awareness played a greater role in determining a predicted post-convention change for Gore, and that Gore’s message was received and accepted at a higher rate than Bush’s message.

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Application of a Modified Linear Learning Model of Buyer Behavior

Journal of Marketing Research ◽

10.1177/002224377401100306 ◽

1974 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 279-285 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Gary L. Lilien

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Panel Data ◽

Stochastic Model ◽

Learning Model ◽

Competitive Behavior ◽

Buyer Behavior ◽

Numerical Examples ◽

Pricing Decision ◽

Market Situation

The performance of a stochastic model of individual buyer behavior relative to a set of gasoline diary panel data is explored. Use of the model for pricing decision making under a set of assumptions about competitive behavior in a market situation is discussed and illustrated through the use of numerical examples.

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Application of a Composite Stochastic Model of Brand Choice

Journal of Marketing Research ◽

10.1177/002224377901600210 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. 258-267 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Moshe Givon ◽

Dan Horsky

Keyword(s):

Stochastic Process ◽

Panel Data ◽

Stochastic Model ◽

Process Parameters ◽

Brand Choice ◽

Learning Model ◽

Composite Model ◽

Bernoulli Model ◽

Product Categories

A composite model of brand choice is presented. It allows individuals to differ in the order of the stochastic process they follow as well as in the magnitude of the process parameters. Procedures for estimating the parameters of the composite model and selecting the best submodel are proposed. Examination of several sets of panel data reveals that in some product categories consumers seem to follow the Linear Learning Model, in some the Bernoulli model, and in some divide into Markovian and Bernoulli segments.

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Economic Voting in Korean Elections : Evidence from Panel Data Analysis of the 2012 Korean Presidential Election

Korean Political Science Review ◽

10.18854/kpsr.2016.50.5.006 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 50 (5) ◽

pp. 109-130

Author(s):

김성연

Keyword(s):

Data Analysis ◽

Panel Data ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Panel Data Analysis ◽

Economic Voting

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Policy Preferences Influence Vote Choice When A New Party Emerges: Evidence from the 2017 French Presidential Election

Political Studies ◽

10.1177/00323217211046329 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 003232172110463

Author(s):

Eric Guntermann ◽

Romain Lachat

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Vote Choice ◽

Policy Preferences ◽

Alternative Possibility ◽

Party Choice ◽

Causal Direction

A common explanation for electoral victories is that the winning candidate adopted issue positions that appealed to voters, implying that citizens’ choices are based on policy preferences. However, it is not straightforward to determine the causal direction between citizens’ issue preferences and their party choice. An alternative possibility, strongly supported by prior research, is that voters adopt the positions of the parties they vote for to rationalize their votes. The 2017 French presidential election offers a unique opportunity to address that question, as it saw the victory of a candidate who was not backed by one of the established parties. Using panel data, we show that policy preferences measured prior to Macron’s emergence as a candidate led voters with a particular bundle of preferences to support him. We conclude that policy preferences clearly do matter to vote choice and that this effect is most visible when a new party emerges.

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Candidate Traits and the 2012 Korean Presidential Election: An Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

Journal of Korean Politics ◽

10.35656/jkp.26.3.7 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 26 (3) ◽

pp. 175-204

Author(s):

Sung-youn Kim

Keyword(s):

Data Analysis ◽

Panel Data ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Panel Data Analysis

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Ethnicity and the Swing Vote in Africa’s Emerging Democracies: Evidence from Kenya

British Journal of Political Science ◽

10.1017/s0007123417000011 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 49 (3) ◽

pp. 901-921 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Jeremy Horowitz

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Ethnic Groups ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Emerging Democracies ◽

Swing Vote ◽

Swing Voters ◽

Voting Intentions

Who are Africa’s swing voters? This article argues that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, core and swing are defined by whether ethnic groups have a co-ethnic leader in the election. For members of ethnic groups with a co-ethnic in the race, there is typically less uncertainty about which party or candidate will best represent the group’s interests. For members of groups without a co-ethnic in the race, uncertainty is often greater, making these voters potentially more receptive to campaign persuasion and more likely to change voting intentions during the campaign. Consistent with these expectations, panel data from Kenya’s 2013 presidential election shows that voters from groups without a co-ethnic in the race were more than two and a half times more likely to change their voting intentions during the campaign period.

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