Supplemental Material for Promoting Protection Against a Threat That Evokes Positive Affect: The Case of Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wändi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
Carmen E. Lefevre ◽  
Andrea L. Taylor ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
Baruch Fischhoff ◽  
...  

Atmosphere ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sanderson ◽  
Theo Economou ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Sarah Jones

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
MG Sanderson ◽  
GP Ford

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2756-2783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Christidis ◽  
Peter A. Stott ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Alberto Arribas ◽  
Gareth S. Jones ◽  
...  

Abstract A new system for attribution of weather and climate extreme events has been developed based on the atmospheric component of the latest Hadley Centre model. The model is run with either observational data of sea surface temperature and sea ice or estimates of what their values would be without the effect of anthropogenic climatic forcings. In that way, ensembles of simulations are produced that represent the climate with and without the effect of human influences. A comparison between the ensembles provides estimates of the change in the frequency of extremes due to anthropogenic forcings. To evaluate the new system, reliability diagrams are constructed, which compare the model-derived probability of extreme events with their observed frequency. The ability of the model to reproduce realistic distributions of relevant climatic variables is another key aspect of the system evaluation. Results are then presented from analyses of three recent high-impact events: the 2009/10 cold winter in the United Kingdom, the heat wave in Moscow in July 2010, and floods in Pakistan in July 2010. An evaluation assessment indicates the model can provide reliable results for the U.K. and Moscow events but not for Pakistan. It is found that without anthropogenic forcings winters in the United Kingdom colder than 2009/10 would be 7–10 times (best estimate) more common. Although anthropogenic forcings increase the likelihood of heat waves in Moscow, the 2010 event is found to be very uncommon and associated with a return time of several hundred years. No reliable attribution assessment can be made for high-precipitation events in Pakistan.


2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 1611-1619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Zheng ◽  
Robert Plomin ◽  
Sophie von Stumm

Positive affect (e.g., attentiveness) and negative affect (e.g., upset) fluctuate over time. We examined genetic influences on interindividual differences in the day-to-day variability of affect (i.e., ups and downs) and in average affect over the duration of a month. Once a day, 17-year-old twins in the United Kingdom ( N = 447) rated their positive and negative affect online. The mean and standard deviation of each individual’s daily ratings across the month were used as the measures of that individual’s average affect and variability of affect. Analyses revealed that the average of negative affect was significantly heritable (.53), but the average of positive affect was not; instead, the latter showed significant shared environmental influences (.42). Fluctuations across the month were significantly heritable for both negative affect (.54) and positive affect (.34). The findings support the two-factor theory of affect, which posits that positive affect is more situational and negative affect is more dispositional.


2015 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 282-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen E. Lefevre ◽  
Wändi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
Andrea L. Taylor ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
Sari Kovats ◽  
...  

2009 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishan Fernando ◽  
Gordon Prescott ◽  
Jennifer Cleland ◽  
Kathryn Greaves ◽  
Hamish McKenzie

1990 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 800-801
Author(s):  
Michael F. Pogue-Geile

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