A New HadGEM3-A-Based System for Attribution of Weather- and Climate-Related Extreme Events

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2756-2783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Christidis ◽  
Peter A. Stott ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Alberto Arribas ◽  
Gareth S. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Return Time ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
New System ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcings

Abstract A new system for attribution of weather and climate extreme events has been developed based on the atmospheric component of the latest Hadley Centre model. The model is run with either observational data of sea surface temperature and sea ice or estimates of what their values would be without the effect of anthropogenic climatic forcings. In that way, ensembles of simulations are produced that represent the climate with and without the effect of human influences. A comparison between the ensembles provides estimates of the change in the frequency of extremes due to anthropogenic forcings. To evaluate the new system, reliability diagrams are constructed, which compare the model-derived probability of extreme events with their observed frequency. The ability of the model to reproduce realistic distributions of relevant climatic variables is another key aspect of the system evaluation. Results are then presented from analyses of three recent high-impact events: the 2009/10 cold winter in the United Kingdom, the heat wave in Moscow in July 2010, and floods in Pakistan in July 2010. An evaluation assessment indicates the model can provide reliable results for the U.K. and Moscow events but not for Pakistan. It is found that without anthropogenic forcings winters in the United Kingdom colder than 2009/10 would be 7–10 times (best estimate) more common. Although anthropogenic forcings increase the likelihood of heat waves in Moscow, the 2010 event is found to be very uncommon and associated with a return time of several hundred years. No reliable attribution assessment can be made for high-precipitation events in Pakistan.

scholarly journals A NEW HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT SYSTEM FOR DEVICES: THE FIRST FIVE YEARS

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce Campbell ◽  
Lee Dobson ◽  
Joanne Higgins ◽  
Bernice Dillon ◽  
Mirella Marlow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Medical Technology ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Disease Area ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Technology Type ◽  
New System

Objectives: The aim of this study was to review 5 years of activity from a new system devised by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), for assessing medical devices and diagnostics aimed at identifying and speeding adoption of technologies with clinical and cost advantages, compared with current practice in the United Kingdom healthcare system.Methods: All eligible notified technologies were classified using the Food and Drug Administration and Global Medical Device Nomenclature nomenclatures. Decisions about selecting technologies for full assessment to produce NICE recommendations were reviewed, along with the reasons given to companies for not selecting products.Results: Between 2009 and 2014, 186 technologies were notified (46 percent therapeutic and 54 percent diagnostic). Thirty-nine were judged ineligible (no regulatory approval), and 147 were considered by an independent committee. Of these, eighty (54 percent) were not selected for full assessment, most commonly because of insufficient evidence (86 percent): there were uncertainties specifically about benefits to the health service (54 percent), to patients (39 percent), and about cost (24 percent). The remaining 67 were selected and assessed for Medical Technology guidance (52 percent) (noninferior and/or lower cost consequences than current practice), for Diagnostics guidance (43 percent) or other NICE recommendations about adoption and use. Classifying technologies by two different systems showed no selection bias for any technology type or disease area.Conclusions: Identifying new or under-used devices and diagnostics with potential benefits and promoting their adoption is important to health services in the United Kingdom and worldwide. This new system offers a means of fostering both uptake and further research. Lack of research data on new products is a major obstacle to evaluation.

scholarly journals Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

Atmosphere ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sanderson ◽  
Theo Economou ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Sarah Jones
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
The United Kingdom

scholarly journals CO2 Sensitivity of Extreme Climate Events in the Western United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason L. Bell ◽  
Lisa C. Sloan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract Based upon trends in observed climate, extreme events are thought to be increasing in frequency and/or magnitude. This change in extreme events is attributed to enhancement of the hydrologic cycle caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Results are presented of relatively long (50 yr) regional climate model simulations of the western United States examining the sensitivity of climate and extreme events to a doubling of preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These results indicate a shift in the temperature distribution, resulting in fewer cold days and more hot days; the largest changes occur at high elevations. The rainfall distribution is also affected; total rain increases as a result of increases in rainfall during the spring season and at higher elevations. The risk of flooding is generally increased, as is the severity of droughts and heat waves. These results, combined with results of decreased snowpack and increased evaporation, could further stress the water supply of the western United States.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristie L. Ebi ◽  
Jennifer Vanos ◽  
Jane W. Baldwin ◽  
Jesse E. Bell ◽  
David M. Hondula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Health System ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Resilient Infrastructure

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 42 is April 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Projections of severe heat waves in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
MG Sanderson ◽  
GP Ford
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
The United Kingdom

An Initialized Attribution Method for Extreme Events on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time-Scales

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-53
Author(s):  
Guomin Wang ◽  
Pandora Hope ◽  
Eun-Pa Lim ◽  
Harry H Hendon ◽  
Julie M Arblaster
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Heat Event ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
Historical Levels

AbstractWhen record-breaking climate and weather extremes occur, decision-makers and planners want to know whether they are random natural events with historical levels of re-occurrence or are reflective of an altered frequency or intensity as a result of climate change. This paper describes a method to attribute extreme weather and climate events to observed increases in atmospheric CO2 using an initialized sub-seasonal to seasonal coupled global climate prediction system. Application of this method provides quantitative estimates of the contribution arising from increases in the level of atmospheric CO2 to individual weather and climate extreme events. Using a coupled sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast system differs from other methods because it has the merit of being initialized with the observed conditions and subsequently reproducing the observed events and their mechanisms. This can aid understanding when the reforecasts with and without enhanced CO2 are compared and communicated to a general audience. Atmosphere-ocean interactions are accounted for. To illustrate the method, we attribute the record Australian heat event of October 2015. We find that about half of the October 2015 Australia-wide temperature anomaly is due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1960. This method has the potential to provide attribution statements for forecast events within an outlook period, i.e. before they occur. This will allow for informed messaging to be available as required when an extreme event occurs, which is of particular use to weather and climate services.

Egalitarian Music Education in the Nineteenth Century: Joseph Mainzer and Singing for the Million

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-45
Author(s):  
Jane Southcott
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Music Education ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Music Educators ◽  
Education For All ◽  
Music Educator ◽  
Working Classes ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
New System

In the 1840s, massed singing classes led by charismatic pioneer music educators such as Joseph Mainzer (1801–1851) sprang up across the United Kingdom. Mainzer was a much respected composer, music journalist, and music educator. Born in Trèves (Prussia), he traveled across Europe and settled in Paris, where he was part of the revolutionary Association Polytechnique that offered free education to the working classes. His mass singing classes were a remarkable success but aroused the suspicions of authorities. Mainzer left Paris for political reasons and moved to England, and after teaching across the United Kingdom, settled in Edinburgh. His arrival in Scotland was greeted with a degree of adulation reserved for celebrities. Across Scotland classes were established to disseminate his new system that was taught in larger centers and most small towns. Although Mainzer’s fixed-doh system did not long survive him and the subsequent arrival of the tonic sol-fa method in the 1850s, his work (and that of others) created an environment in which popular singing classes in schools, churches and the community could flourish. Mainzer was a skilled and charismatic educator. He advocated tirelessly for lifelong music education for all. Mainzer has been overlooked and deserves recognition.

scholarly journals Court interpreting in the United Kingdom: analysis of the Ministry of Justice’s Language Service New Contract

2016 ◽  
pp. 149-171
Author(s):  
Aurora Ruiz Mezcua ◽  
Alicia Fernández Gallego Casilda
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Private Company ◽  
Service Contract ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Court Interpreting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
New System

Court interpreting is a challenging context where languages are fundamental to ensure justice and respect for human rights. The phenomenon of public service interpreting is a relatively recent one and the UK is considered to be one of the pioneer countries in providing Community Interpretation. The main objective of this research is to analyse the diverse aspects of the contract signed by the MoJ in 2012 with a private company for the outsourcing of language services. The MoJ previously obtained such services from freelance interpreters through a different system. We study the reasons for changing the old Ministry of Justice language service contract, the transition and also the new system, from an interpreting quality perspective. Consequently, this paper concentrates on one hypothesis: that there are elements in this outsourcing contract that pose a risk to the quality of the services provided under it.

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