scholarly journals Inflow Flood Simulation and Risk Analysis of Cascade Reservoirs

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01106
Author(s):  
Jing Huang ◽  
Jiqing Li ◽  
Pengteng Liang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Simulation ◽  
Cascade Reservoirs ◽  
The Three Gorges ◽  
Flood Regulation ◽  
Risk Rate

The risk of flood control in cascade reservoirs reflects the possibility of unforeseen events in upstream reservoirs under certain space-time conditions during the operation of flood control. Using @RISK software and a stochastic simulation model to simulate the inflow flood of cascade reservoirs, the flood routing of cascade reservoirs and the risk analysis of the highest water level were carried out based on the flood regulation rules of Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs. The results of simulation calculations show that the risk rate of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoir is lower than its design flood standard, which can ensure the safety of flood control.

scholarly journals Hydrological Risk Analysis of Dams: The Influence of Initial Reservoir Level Conditions

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Gabriel-Martin ◽  
Alvaro Sordo-Ward ◽  
Luis Garrote ◽  
Isabel Granados
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Reservoir Level ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Relevant Variable

In this paper, we present a method to assess the influence of the initial reservoir level in hydrological dam safety and risk analysis. Traditionally, in professional practice, the procedures applied are basically deterministic. Several physical processes are defined deterministically, according to the criteria of the designer (usually in the conservative side), although there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding these processes. A relevant variable is the reservoir level considered at the beginning of flood events. Hydrological dam safety assessment methods traditionally assume that the reservoir is initially full when it receives the design flood, thus, staying in the conservative side when designing a new dam. However, the distribution of reservoir levels at the beginning of flood episodes takes more importance for evaluating the real risk for the dams in operation. We analyzed three different scenarios—initial reservoir level equal to maximum normal level, equal to a maximum conservation level, and following the probability distribution from the historical records. To do so, we presented a method applied to a gated-spillway dam located in the Tagus river basin. A set of 100,000 inflow hydrographs was generated through a Monte Carlo procedure, by reproducing the statistics of the main observed hydrograph characteristics—peak flow, volume, and duration. The set of 100,000 hydrographs was routed through the reservoir applying the Volumetric Evaluation Method as a flood control strategy. In order to compare the three scenarios, we applied an economic global risk index. The index combines the hydrological risk for the dam, linked to the maximum water level reached in the reservoir, during the flood routing, and the flood risk in the downstream river reach, linked to the discharge releases from the dam. The results showed the importance of accounting for the fluctuation of initial reservoir levels, for assessing the risk related to hydrological dam safety. Furthermore, a procedure to quantify the uncertainty associated with the effects of initial reservoir level on hydrological dam safety, has been proposed.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Optimal Scheduling Model of Dynamic Control of Flood Limit Water Level for Cascade Reservoirs

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanjun Liu ◽  
Hui Qin ◽  
Qin Shen ◽  
Rui Tian ◽  
Yongqi Liu
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Dynamic Control ◽  
Optimal Scheduling ◽  
Cascade Reservoirs ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Scheduling Model ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Risk Rate

Reservoirs play a significant role in water resources management and water resource allocation. Traditional flood limited water level (FLWL) of reservoirs is set as a fixed value which over-considers the reservoir flood control and limits the benefits of reservoirs to a certain extent. However, the dynamic control of the reservoir FLWL is an effective solution. It is a method to temporarily increase the water level of the reservoir during the flood season by using forecast information and discharge capacity, and it can both consider flood control and power generation during the flood season. Therefore, this paper focuses on multi-objective optimal scheduling of dynamic control of FLWL for cascade reservoirs based on multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to get the trade-off between flood control and power generation. A multi-objective optimal scheduling model of dynamic control of FLWL for cascade reservoirs which contains a new dynamic control method is developed, and the proposed model consists of an initialization module, a dynamic control programming module and an optimal scheduling module. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, a cascade reservoir consisting of seven reservoirs in the Hanjiang Basin of China were selected as a case study. Twenty-four-hour runoff data series for three typical hydrological years were used in this model. At the same time, two extreme schemes were chosen for comparison from optimized scheduling schemes. The comparison result showed that the power generation can be increased by 9.17 × 108 kW·h (6.39%) at most, compared to the original design scheduling scheme, while the extreme risk rate also increased from 0.1% to 0.268%. In summary, experimental results show that the multi-objective optimal scheduling model established in this study can provide decision makers with a set of alternative feasible optimized scheduling schemes by considering the two objectives of maximizing power generation and minimizing extreme risk rate.

Impact of the Three Gorges Reservoir Flood Prevention Dispatching Tohydrologic Information and Disaster Information in Dongting Lake Area

2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 3652-3661
Author(s):  
Jing Bao Li ◽  
Ying Chao Guo ◽  
Zhong Hua Zhao ◽  
Hong Shuai ◽  
Lei Xie
Keyword(s):  
Three Gorges Reservoir ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Dongting Lake ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
Flood Prevention ◽  
The Three Gorges Reservoir ◽  
Dongting Lake Area ◽  
The Three Gorges ◽  
Disaster Information

Use the flood years (1998、2010) the data of the hydrologic information and disaster information, comparative analysis the impact on hydrologic information and disaster information in Dongting Lake area of the Three Gorges Reservoir flood prevention dispatching .The results show that: the inflow of lake into Jingjiang Sankou reduces about 242.61 × 108 m3,the flood level of Hukou Chenglingji lowers 0.82m, the daily average increasing rate of flood peak level slows 0.23m, the over-warning water level duration time reduces 62d; both have saved a great deal of flood control emergency rescue and disaster relief material consumption, manpower input, namely RMB 0.638 x 108yuan, and reduce the lake area flood damage 19.983 x 108yuan; in the process of 5 times flood prevention dispatching of the Three Gorges Reservoir, three times in July to alleviate flood control operation regime, disaster in Dongting Lake area the contribution of the largest, flood control operation effect is not very sensitive in June, and the impound floodwater sums to 80.7×108m3, not only of the lake area is no sense of flood control, but also because the flood retention of reservoir is more, the water of Sankou into the lake is greatly reduced, and Hunan sishui has begun to enter withered period, total amount into the lake gradually reduce, make the Dongting Lake water into withered period early; the ability of the Three Gorges Reservoir flood prevention dispatching operation to the flood prevention function is very limited, from the overall and long-term ways ,to enhance their ability of flood prevention and disaster alleviation of Dongting Lake area is still an important and comprehensive affairs.

Risk analysis for flood-control structure under consideration of uncertainties in design flood

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiang-Jen Wu ◽  
Jinn-Chuang Yang ◽  
Yeou-Koung Tung
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Control Structure ◽  
Design Flood
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