In this paper, authors extracted the data from the GPS equipment on the bus and established the real-time bus arrival time prediction model and bus running speed prediction model based on Kalman filtering technique. Analyse the error and build the error correction model. Firstly the bus running speed was predicted in the next section with the bus running speed prediction model, and then the bus arrival time was predicted with the real-time bus arrival time prediction model. Applying the newest information of bus running speed and bus arrival time, we were able to predict the real-time bus arrival time dynamically. The bus running speed prediction model and the real-time bus arrival time prediction model were assessed with the data of transit route NO.300 in Beijing. Lastly we assessed the real-time bus arrival time with the error between bus arrival time and real-time bus arrival time so that the prediction error was improved to 10 seconds which has higher prediction accuracy.
An Adaptive Long-Term Bus Arrival Time Prediction Model with Cyclic Variations
