A Typological Approach to Individual Urban Travel Behavior Prediction

1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
N Oppenheim

With the use of cluster analysis a sample of 1018 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area was classified into eleven types of urban residents on the basis of overall similarity of personal and environmental characteristics, and independently into nine types of travel behavior. The relations between the two typologies, and the comparative travel behavior of the types of urban resident were investigated in an attempt to gain insight into the determinants of urban travel. The probability of the correct assignment of a travel behaviour type to an urban resident type was of the order of 0·30. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to test empirically whether the value of a given travel behavior characteristic for a given urban resident type can be assumed to be higher (or lower) than the value in the general population, thus testing the predictability of the travel behavior of the various urban resident types. Conversely, the prediction of the urban traveler's personal characteristics given his travel behavior type was also evaluated. This typological approach made the prediction of the usage of the San Francisco Bay Area rapid transit system (for going to work, for going to shop, for going out for leisure, or for some other purpose) possible, in about 15% of the cases, from the knowledge of the urban resident type and, in about 25% of the cases, from the knowledge of the travel behavior type.

Author(s):  
S. D. Forsythe ◽  
T. J. Lowe

The San Francisco Bay area is facing a mounting problem of handling the ever-increasing flow of traffic. With this traffic rising so rapidly in an area severely constricted by topography it has been concluded that freeway, bridge, and parking improvements alone cannot meet the Bay area's mounting transportation needs. Rapid transit, utilizing only a fraction of the space and with much less cost, would provide far more passenger capacity than automobiles on freeway and as a result a billion dollar rapid transit system has been planned for the Bay area. This paper describes the design and development of the BARTD system at present being undertaken.


Author(s):  
Carl W. Sundberg ◽  
Montgomery Ferar

Automobile traffic is threatening to overwhelm the cities of the San Francisco Bay Area, and an advanced mass transit system is being built by the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BARTD) to help alleviate this problem. This article describes the design and development of the passenger vehicle for this system. BARTD system requirements and car design criteria are discussed, and the conceptual design and detailed development of passenger accommodations, environmental control provisions, lighting, ingress/egress, visibility and appearance design featurea are presented. The requirements for and the detailed design of the train attendant's pod are also discussed. A prototype car has been designed with primary emphasis on those human factors considerations that are expected to induce 200,000 commuters to use the system in preference to private automobiles. Public reactions to the prototype vehicle will be employed to refine and improve upon the design prior to its introduction into service in 1971.


Author(s):  
Kara Maria Kockelman

The relative significance and influence of a variety of measures of urban form on household vehicle kilometers traveled, automobile ownership, and mode choice were investigated. The travel data came from the 1990 San Francisco Bay Area travel surveys, and the land use data were largely constructed from hectare-level descriptions provided by the Association of Bay Area Governments. After demographic characteristics were controlled for, the measures of accessibility, land use mixing, and land use balance—computed for trip-makers’ home neighborhoods and at trip ends—proved to be highly statistically significant and influential in their impact on all measures of travel behavior. In many cases, balance, mix, and accessibility were found to be more relevant (as measured by elasticities) than several household and traveler characteristics that often form a basis for travel behavior prediction. In contrast, under all but the vehicle ownership models, the impact of density was negligible after accessibility was controlled.


1997 ◽  
Vol 1607 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mauch ◽  
Brian D. Taylor

Detailed trip diary data from a 1990 survey of San Francisco Bay Area residents were used to examine the effects of race/ethnicity on the differences in commuting and household-serving travel among men and women. With respect to travel behavioral differences between men and women, the findings suggest that women do more child chauffeuring and make more household-serving trips than men. This analysis further reveals that these gender differences in commuting behavior extend to household-serving travel and can vary significantly by race/ethnicity in addition to income and household structure. It was found, for example, that commute time differences are highest among whites (4.5 min) and lowest among Hispanics (1.8 min), whereas observed gender differences in average travel time for all trips do not vary much by race or ethnicity. Furthermore, the gender variation in child-serving trips was lowest among Asians and Pacific Islanders (women are 60 percent more likely to make such trips) and highest among whites (women are 223 percent more likely to make such trips). Finally, and in contrast to child-serving travel, women make about 75 percent more grocery trips than men, regardless of race/ethnicity. The analysis suggests, however, that much, although not all, of the racial/ethnic variation in the travel behavior of men and women is probably explained by factors—such as income, employment status, metropolitan location, and automobile availability—that tend to vary systematically by race ethnicity. In general, it was found that gender is a far more robust predictor of child-serving and grocery shopping trips than either race or ethnicity.


Author(s):  
Allison M. Lockwood ◽  
Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan ◽  
Chandra R. Bhat

Research on travel demand modeling has predominantly focused on weekday activity–travel patterns, with studying the effects of commute travel on peak period traffic congestion as a major objective. Few studies have examined the weekend activity–travel behavior of individuals. However, weekend travel volume has been increasing over time and is comparable to weekday travel volumes. Hence, weekend activity–travel patterns warrant careful attention in transportation planning. This paper focuses on presenting a comprehensive exploratory analysis of weekend activity–travel patterns and contrasting weekday and weekend activity participation characteristics. Data from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey, California, are used in the analysis. A comparative analysis of several aggregate activity–travel characteristics indicates that, although weekday and weekend travel volumes are comparable, there are several key differences in activity–travel characteristics. Specifically, weekend activity–travel is predominantly leisure oriented and undertaken during the midday period. Average trip distances are longer on weekends. Transit shares are lower but occupancy levels in personal automobiles are higher on weekends. The weekend activity sequencing and trip-chaining characteristics explored in this study provide further insights into individuals’ activity organization patterns on weekend days. This paper highlights the importance of studying weekend activity–travel behavior for transportation planning and air-quality modeling. Insights from this exploratory analysis can form the basis for comprehensive weekend activity–travel modeling efforts.


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