scholarly journals Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (8) ◽  
pp. 2005-2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shineng Hu ◽  
Alexey V. Fedorov
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Bjerknes Feedback ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Wind Bursts ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Intraseasonal wind bursts in the tropical Pacific are believed to affect the evolution and diversity of El Niño events. In particular, the occurrence of two strong westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in early 2014 apparently pushed the ocean–atmosphere system toward a moderate to strong El Niño—potentially an extreme event according to some climate models. However, the event’s progression quickly stalled, and the warming remained very weak throughout the year. Here, we find that the occurrence of an unusually strong basin-wide easterly wind burst (EWB) in June was a key factor that impeded the El Niño development. It was shortly after this EWB that all major Niño indices fell rapidly to near-normal values; a modest growth resumed only later in the year. The easterly burst and the weakness of subsequent WWBs resulted in the persistence of two separate warming centers in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, suppressing the positive Bjerknes feedback critical for El Niño. Experiments with a climate model with superimposed wind bursts support these conclusions, pointing to inherent limits in El Niño predictability. Furthermore, we show that the spatial structure of the easterly burst matches that of the observed decadal trend in wind stress in the tropical Pacific, suggesting potential links between intraseasonal wind bursts and decadal climate variations.

The Tropical Atmospheric Energy Budget from the TRMM Perspective. Part II: Evaluating GCM Representations of the Sensitivity of Regional Energy and Water Cycles to the 1998–99 ENSO Cycle

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 4548-4571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tristan S. L’Ecuyer ◽  
Graeme L. Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Regional Energy ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Tropical Pacific ◽  
Water Cycles

Abstract The impact of clouds and precipitation on the climate is a strong function of their spatial distribution and microphysical properties, characteristics that depend, in turn, on the environments in which they form. Simulating feedbacks between clouds, precipitation, and their surroundings therefore places an enormous burden on the parameterized physics used in current climate models. This paper uses multisensor observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) to assess the representation of the response of regional energy and water cycles in the tropical Pacific to the strong 1998 El Niño event in (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) AMIP-style simulations from the climate models that participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) most recent assessment report. The relationship between model errors and uncertainties in their representation of the impacts of clouds and precipitation on local energy budgets is also explored. With the exception of cloud radiative impacts that are often overestimated in both regions, the responses of atmospheric composition and heating to El Niño are generally captured in the east Pacific where the SST forcing is locally direct. Many models fail, however, to correctly predict the magnitude of induced trends in the west Pacific where the response depends more critically on accurate representation of the zonal atmospheric circulation. As a result, a majority of the models examined do not reproduce the apparent westward transport of energy in the equatorial Pacific during the 1998 El Niño event. Furthermore, the intermodel variability in the responses of precipitation, total heating, and vertical motion is often larger than the intrinsic ENSO signal itself, implying an inherent lack of predictive capability in the ensemble with regard to the response of the mean zonal atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific to ENSO. While ENSO does not necessarily provide a proxy for anthropogenic climate change, the results suggest that deficiencies remain in the representation of relationships between radiation, clouds, and precipitation in current climate models that cannot be ignored when interpreting their predictions of future climate.

scholarly journals Possible Impact of the Indian Ocean SST on the Northern Hemisphere Circulation during El Niño*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 3164-3189 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Annamalai ◽  
H. Okajima ◽  
M. Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), differing in numerics and physical parameterizations, are employed to test the hypothesis that El Niño–induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean impact considerably the Northern Hemisphere extratropical circulation anomalies during boreal winter [January–March +1 (JFM +1)] of El Niño years. The hypothesis grew out of recent findings that ocean dynamics influence SST variations over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO), and these in turn impact local precipitation. A set of ensemble simulations with the AGCMs was carried out to assess the combined and individual effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the extratropical circulation. To elucidate the dynamics responsible for the teleconnection, solutions were sought from a linear version of one of the AGCMs. Both AGCMs demonstrate that the observed precipitation anomalies over the SWIO are determined by local SST anomalies. Analysis of the circulation response shows that over the Pacific–North American (PNA) region, the 500-hPa height anomalies, forced by Indian Ocean SST anomalies, oppose and destructively interfere with those forced by tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The model results validated with reanalysis data show that compared to the runs where only the tropical Pacific SST anomalies are specified, the root-mean-square error of the height anomalies over the PNA region is significantly reduced in runs in which the SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean are prescribed in addition to those in the tropical Pacific. Among the ensemble members, both precipitation anomalies over the SWIO and the 500-hPa height over the PNA region show high potential predictability. The solutions from the linear model indicate that the Rossby wave packets involved in setting up the teleconnection between the SWIO and the PNA region have a propagation path that is quite different from the classical El Niño–PNA linkage. The results of idealized experiments indicate that the Northern Hemisphere extratropical response to Indian Ocean SST anomalies is significant and the effect of this response needs to be considered in understanding the PNA pattern during El Niño years. The results presented herein suggest that the tropical Indian Ocean plays an active role in climate variability and that accurate observation of SST there is of urgent need.

scholarly journals Dipole Structure of Mixed Layer Salinity in Response to El Niño‐La Niña Asymmetry in the Tropical Pacific

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (21) ◽  
pp. 12165-12172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cong Guan ◽  
Shijian Hu ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden ◽  
Fan Wang ◽  
Shan Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Tropical Pacific
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