Remote sensing of water vapor convergence, deep convection, and precipitation over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1982–1983 El Niño

1987 ◽  
Vol 92 (C13) ◽  
pp. 14204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip E. Ardanuy ◽  
Prabhakara Cuddapah ◽  
H. Lee Kyle
2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 391-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mat Collins ◽  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Alexandre Ganachaud ◽  
Eric Guilyardi ◽  
...  

Ocean Science ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. J. van Oldenborgh ◽  
S. Y. Philip ◽  
M Collins

Abstract. In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The current staus of these projections is assessed by examining a large set of climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Firstly, the patterns and time series of present-day ENSO-like model variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with that observed. Next, the strength of the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedback loops responsible for generating the ENSO cycle in the models are evaluated. Finally, we consider the projections of the models with, what we consider to be, the most realistic ENSO variability. Two of the models considered do not have interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Three models show a very regular ENSO cycle due to a strong local wind feedback in the central Pacific and weak sea surface temperature (SST) damping. Six other models have a higher frequency ENSO cycle than observed due to a weak east Pacific upwelling feedback loop. One model has much stronger upwelling feedback than observed, and another one cannot be described simply by the analysis technique. The remaining six models have a reasonable balance of feedback mechanisms and in four of these the interannual mode also resembles the observed ENSO both spatially and temporally. Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios) the most realistic six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift towards El Niño-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the skewness of the variability are too large to make any statements about the future relative strength of El Niño and La Niña events. Based on this analysis of the multi-model ensemble, we expect very little influence of global warming on ENSO.


Nature ◽  
10.1038/36081 ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 391 (6670) ◽  
pp. 879-883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Lewis M. Rothstein ◽  
Antonio J. Busalacchi

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 935-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fukai Liu ◽  
Yiyong Luo ◽  
Jian Lu ◽  
Xiuquan Wan

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 847-850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Lewis M. Rothstein ◽  
Antonio J. Busalacchi ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (12) ◽  
pp. 3529-3556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijing Cheng ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Balmaseda ◽  
...  

Abstract As the strongest interannual perturbation to the climate system, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates the year-to-year variability of the ocean energy budget. Here we combine ocean observations, reanalyses, and surface flux data with Earth system model simulations to obtain estimates of the different terms affecting the redistribution of energy in the Earth system during ENSO events, including exchanges between ocean and atmosphere and among different ocean basins, and lateral and vertical rearrangements. This comprehensive inventory allows better understanding of the regional and global evolution of ocean heat related to ENSO and provides observational metrics to benchmark performance of climate models. Results confirm that there is a strong negative ocean heat content tendency (OHCT) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during El Niño, mainly through enhanced air–sea heat fluxes Q into the atmosphere driven by high sea surface temperatures. In addition to this diabatic component, there is an adiabatic redistribution of heat both laterally and vertically (0–100 and 100–300 m) in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans that dominates the local OHCT. Heat is also transported and discharged from 20°S–5°N into off-equatorial regions within 5°–20°N during and after El Niño. OHCT and Q changes outside the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate the ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections and changes of ocean heat transport (i.e., Indonesian Throughflow). The tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans warm during El Niño, partly offsetting the tropical Pacific cooling for the tropical oceans as a whole. While there are distinct regional OHCT changes, many compensate each other, resulting in a weak but robust net global ocean cooling during and after El Niño.


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