Spring Extreme Precipitation Days in North China and Their Reliance on Atmospheric Circulation Patterns During 1979–2019

The interannual variation of springtime extreme precipitation (SEP) days in North China (NC) and their reliance on atmospheric circulation patterns are studied by using the continuous daily record of 396 rain gauges and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis during 1979–2019. The SEP days are defined as the days when at least 10% of rain gauges in NC record daily precipitation no less than 10.5 mm. Results show that the number of SEP days shows large interannual variability but no significant trend in the study period. Using the objective classification method of the obliquely rotated principal analysis in T-mode, we classify the atmospheric circulation into five different patterns based on the geopotential height at 700 hPa. Three circulation patterns all have fronts and are associated with strong southerly wind, leading to 88% of SEP days in NC. The strong southerly wind may provide moisture and dynamic forcing for the frontal precipitation. The interannual variation of SEP days is related with the number of the three above-mentioned dominant circulation patterns. Further analysis shows that the West Pacific pattern could be one of the possible climate variability modes related to SEP days. This study reveals that the daily circulation pattern may be the linkage between SEP days and climate variability modes in NC.

The late Miocene eolian record at the eastern margin of the Puna Plateau, NW Argentina: Evidence of upper-tropospheric paleocirculation

The Puna–Altiplano Plateau of the Central Andes is the second-highest plateau in the world (after Tibet), with a mean elevation of 4000 m.a.s.l. and an arid to hyperarid climate. Uplift of the Puna–Altiplano Plateau has affected lower-level atmospheric circulation, acting as a barrier to humid easterly winds from the Amazon basin and favoring an across-strike precipitation gradient resulting in a humid climate towards the east of the plateau and an arid to hyperarid climate in the orogen's interior. In the modern climate, the Bolivian High anticyclone regulates upper troposphere circulation, but little is known about the high-altitude tropospheric circulation of the past. This work focuses on the eolian record of the San Antonio de los Cobres basin along the eastern border of the Puna Plateau, NW Argentina, with the aim of analyzing its origin and thus elucidating the late Miocene winds. The eolian deposits are constrained by 7.8 Ma (K/Ar and U/Pb) and 6.4 Ma (U/Pb) ignimbrites at the nearly basal and upper contacts, respectively. Based on stratigraphic, sedimentological, and provenance analysis of the eolian units, we have identified three main facies associations (FAs): FA1) cross-stratified sandstones with large- to small-scale tabular, planar cross-bedding and with trough cross-stratification; FA2) sandstones with planar to low-angle stratification associated with thinly laminated ripple sandstone strata; FA3) medium- to coarse-grained massive sandstones associated with pebbly to bouldery, matrix-supported conglomerates and clast-supported conglomerates. The lateral and vertical facies assemblages indicate a dune field confined to topographic depressions dominated by transverse dunes with straight and sinuous crestlines that laterally grade into sandsheets associated with ephemeral streams. Paleoflows, lithotypes, and grain-size determinations indicate a persistent north-northwest provenance and wind velocities of 24–38 km/h (with maximum velocities of 55–75 km/h). The results of our analysis coupled with data from previous studies indicates that, for at least the last ca. 8 Myr, the winds have been blowing constantly from the north-northwest with an intensity similar to the present. This implies that the paleo-atmospheric circulation had a similar pattern to the present-day one. Therefore, we conclude that the upper-troposphere circulation in the Puna Plateau of NW Argentina was already regulated by the Bolivian High anticyclone during the Miocene, generating constant north-northwesterly winds.

Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty

Northern Hemisphere Land monsoon precipitation (NHLM) exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the 20st century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, and due to differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain, due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Daily Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Dry/Wet Events in Iran

Analyzing atmospheric circulation patterns characterize prevailing weather in a region. The method of principal component analysis and clustering was used to classify daily atmospheric circulation patterns. The average daily geopotential height of 500 hPa with 0.5° resolution of the ECMWF (1990–2019) were extracted from the Middle East. The S array was used to identify air types, and k-means clustering was used to classify daily air types. All days were divided into eighteen groups. Then, the surface maps and moisture flux divergence at the 850-hPa level of each pattern were studied. The, the connection between circulation patterns and precipitation occurrence is investigated by the PI index. The existence of a variety of precipitation and temperature regimes and consequent dry/wet periods is related to the type and frequency of the circulation patterns. In patterns with south to southwesterly currents, the low-pressure surface center extends from the south of the Red Sea to southern Turkey and is associated with the mid-level trough, where the moisture fluxes converge in the south of the Red Sea, southwest/south of Iran, and east of the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, according to the intensity of the patterns, the most precipitation falls in the country’s western half, and the Zagros Mountain’s wind side. With the eastward movement of the Cyclonic patterns, the rainfall area extends to the eastern half of the country. With the pattern that the thermal low surface pressure extends to 35 °N latitude and is associated with the mid-level subtropical high, almost no rain occurs in the country.

Seasonal Variability in the Mechanisms Behind the 2020 Siberian Heatwaves

Record breaking heatwaves and wildfires immersed Siberia during the boreal spring of 2020 following an anomalously warm winter. Springtime heatwaves are becoming more common in the region, with statistically significant trends in the frequency, magnitude, and duration of heatwave events over the past four decades. Mechanisms by which the heatwaves occur and contributing factors differ by season. Winter heatwave frequency is correlated with the atmospheric circulation, particularly the Arctic Oscillation, while the frequency of heatwaves during the spring months is highly correlated with aspects of the land surface including snow cover, albedo, and latent heat flux. Idealized AMIP-style experiments are used to quantify the contribution of suppressed Arctic sea ice and snow cover over Siberia on the atmospheric circulation, surface energy budget, and surface air temperature in Siberia during the winter and spring of 2020. Sea ice concentration contributed to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and Arctic Oscillation during the winter months, thereby influencing the tropospheric circulation and surface air temperature over Siberia. Warm temperatures across the region resulted in an earlier than usual recession of the winter snowpack. The exposed land surface contributed to up to 20% of the temperature anomaly during the spring through the albedo feedback and changes in the ratio of the latent and sensible heat fluxes. This, in combination with favorable atmospheric circulation patterns, resulted in record breaking heatwaves in Siberia in the spring of 2020.