Seasonal Variability of The Mixed Layer Depth in The Sulawesi Sea

The Sulawesi Sea is a semi-enclosed basin located in the Indonesian Seas and considered as the one of location in the west route of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). There is less attention on the mixed layer depth investigation in the Sulawesi Sea. Concerning that the mixed layer plays an important role in influencing the ocean in air-sea interaction and affects biological activity, the estimation of mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Sulawesi Sea is important. Seasonal variation of the mixed layer in the Sulawesi Sea between 115°-125°E and 0°-8°N is estimated by using World Ocean Atlas 2013. Forcing elements on the mixed layer in terms of surface-forced turbulent mixing from mechanical forcing of wind stress and buoyancy forcing (from heat flux as well as freshwater flux) in the Sulawesi Sea is provided by using a reanalysis dataset. The MLD is estimated directly on grid profiles with interpolated levels based on chosen density fixed criterion of 0.03 kg.m^-3 and temperature criterion of 0.5°C difference from the surface. The results show that mixed layer depth in the Sulawesi Sea varies both spatially and temporally. Generally, the deepest MLD was occurred during the southwest monsoon (JJA), and the lowest MLD was occurred during the first transition (MAM) and second transition monsoon (SON). Strengthening and weakening MLD are influenced by mechanical forcing from wind stress and buoyancy flux. In the Sulawesi Sea, the mixed layer deepening coincides with the occurrence of a maximum in wind stress, and low buoyancy flux at the surface. This condition is the opposite when mixed layer shallowing occurs.

Antarctic meltwater-induced dynamical changes in phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean

IIt has been suggested that the freshwater flux due to the recent melting of the Antarctic ice-sheet/shelf will suppress ventilation in the Southern Ocean. In this study, we performed idealized earth system simulations to examine the impacts of Antarctic meltwater on surface phytoplankton biomass in the Antarctic Ocean. The enhanced stratification due to the meltwater leads to a decrease in the surface nitrate concentration but an increase in the surface dissolved iron concentration. These changes are associated with the reduced upwelling of nitrate-rich deep water and the trapped iron exported from the terrestrial sediment. Because of the limited iron availability in the Southern Ocean, the trapped iron in surface water enhances the chlorophyll concentration in the open ocean. However, in the marginal sea along the Antarctic coastline where the iron is relatively sufficient, a nitrate reduction induces a chlorophyll decrease, indicating a regime shift from iron-limited to nitrate-limited conditions.

Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model

The last deglaciation offers an unique opportunity to understand the climate–ice-sheet interactions in a global warming context. In this paper, to tackle this question, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity coupled to an ice sheet model covering the Northern Hemisphere to simulate the last deglaciation and the Holocene (26–0 ka). We use a synchronous coupling every year between the ice sheet and the rest of the climate system and we ensure a closed water cycle considering the release of freshwater flux to the ocean due to ice sheet melting. Our reference experiment displays a gradual warming in response to the forcings, with no abrupt changes. In this case, while the amplitude of the freshwater flux to the ocean induced by ice sheet retreat is realistic, it is sufficient to shut down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from which the model does not recover within the time period simulated. However, with reduced freshwater flux we are nonetheless able to obtain different oceanic circulation evolutions, including some abrupt transitions between shut-down and active circulation states in the course of the deglaciation. The inclusion of a parameterisation for the sinking of brines around Antarctica also produces an abrupt recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, absent in the reference experiment. The fast oceanic circulation recoveries lead to abrupt warming phases in Greenland. Our simulated ice sheet geometry evolution is in overall good agreement with available global reconstructions, even though the abrupt sea level rise at 14.6 ka is underestimated, possibly because the climate model underestimates the millennial-scale temperature variability. In the course of the deglaciation, large-scale grounding line instabilities are simulated both for the Eurasian and North American ice sheets. The first instability occurs in the Barents–Kara seas for the Eurasian ice sheet at 14.5 ka. A second grounding line instability occurs ca. 12 ka in the proglacial lake that formed at the southern margin of the North American ice sheet. With additional asynchronously coupled experiments, we assess the sensitivity of our results to different ice sheet model choices related to surface and sub-shelf mass balance, ice deformation and grounding line representation. While the ice sheet evolutions differ within this ensemble, the global climate trajectory is only weakly affected by these choices. In our experiments, only the abrupt shifts in the oceanic circulation due to freshwater fluxes are able to produce some millennial-scale variability since no self-generating abrupt transitions are simulated without these fluxes.

Was there a glacial outburst flood in the Torngat Mountains during Marine Isotope Stage 3?

We report previously unpublished evidence for a Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3; 60–26 ka) glacial outburst flood in the Torngat Mountains (northern Quebec/Labrador, Canada). We present 10Be cosmogenic exposure ages from legacy fieldwork for a glacial lake shoreline with evidence for outburst flooding in the Torngat Mountains, with a minimum age of 36 ± 3 ka (we consider the most likely age, corrected for burial, to be ~56 ± 3 ka). This shoreline position and age can potentially constrain the Laurentide Ice Sheet margin in the Torngat Mountains. This region, considered a site of glacial inception, has no published dated geologic constraints for high-elevation MIS 3 ice margins. We estimate the freshwater flux associated with the inferred glacial outburst flood using high-resolution digital elevation maps corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment. Using assumptions about the ice-dammed locations we find that a freshwater flood volume of 1.14 × 1012 m3 could have entered the Hudson Strait. This glacial outburst flood volume could have contributed to surface ocean freshening to cause a measurable meltwater signal in δ18O records, but would not necessarily have been associated with substantial ice rafted debris. Future work is required to refine estimates of the size and timing of such a glacial outburst flood. Nevertheless, we outline testable hypotheses about the Laurentide Ice Sheet and glacial outburst floods, including possible implications for Heinrich events and glacial inception in North America, that can be assessed with additional fieldwork and cosmogenic measurements.

On the seasonal variations of ocean bottom pressure in the world oceans

Seasonal variability of the ocean bottom pressure (OBP) in the world oceans is investigated using 15 years of GRACE observations and a Pressure Coordinate Ocean Model (PCOM). In boreal winter, negative OBP anomalies appear in the northern North Pacific, subtropical South Pacific and north of 40 °S in the Indian Ocean, while OBP anomaly in the Southern Ocean is positive. The summer pattern is opposite to that in winter. The centers of positive (negative) OBP signals have a good coherence with the mass convergence/divergence due to Ekman transport, indicating the importance of wind forcing. The PCOM model reproduces the observed OBP quite well. Sensitivity experiments indicate that wind forcing dominates the regional OBP seasonal variations, while the contributions due to heat flux and freshwater flux are unimportant. Experiments with daily sea level pressure (SLP) forcing suggest that at high frequencies the non-static effect of SLP is not negligible.

Ocean Salinity changes in the global ocean under global warming conditions Part 1: Mechanisms in a strong warming scenario

We investigate mechanisms underlying salinity changes projected to occur under strong representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing conditions. The study is based on output of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Mixed Resolution (MPI-ESM-MR) run with an ocean resolution of 0.4°. In comparison to the present-day oceanic conditions, sea surface salinity (SSS) increases towards the end of the 21st century in the tropical and the subtropical Atlantic. In contrast, a basin-wide surface freshening can be observed in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The RCP8.5 scenario of the MPI-ESM-MR with a global surface warming of ~2.3°C marks a water cycle amplification of 19 %, which is equivalent to ~8%°C−1 and thus close to the water cycle amplification predicted according to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship (~7%°C−1). Large scale global SSS changes are driven by adjustments of surface freshwater fluxes. On smaller spatial scales, it is predominantly advection related to circulation changes that affects near-surface SSS. With respect to subsurface salinity, it is changes in surface freshwater flux that drive their changes over the upper 500 m of the subtropical Pacific and Indian oceans by forcing changes in water mass formation (spice signal). In the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, in contrast, the dynamical response associated with wind stress, circulation changes and associated heaving of isopycnals is equally important in driving subsurface salinity changes over the upper 1000 m.

Freshwater transport from warm to cold ocean regions amplifying faster than all model estimates

Warming-induced global water cycle changes pose a significant challenge to global ecosystems and human society. The magnitude of historical water cycle change is uncertain due to a dearth of direct rainfall and evaporation observations, particularly over the ocean where 80% of global evaporation occurs. Air-sea fluxes of freshwater and river run-off imprint on ocean salinity at different temperatures, such that warmer regions tend to be saltier and cooler regions tend to be fresher. In this work, we track observed salinity trends in the warm, salty fraction of the ocean from 1970 to 2014, and infer the global poleward transport of freshwater over this period. Since 1970, 46 - 77 x10^12 m^3 of freshwater has been transported poleward from the warmest fraction of the ocean. No model in the current generation of climate models (the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project; CMIP6) replicates this transport, with the closest model underestimating transport by 2 - 4 times. We trace the climate model biases to a weaker than expected surface freshwater flux intensification, just 0 - 4% in CMIP6 models compared to an estimated 3 - 7.5% in observations.

Impact of an AMOC weakening on the stability of the southern Amazon rainforest

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest are potential tipping elements of the Earth system, i.e., they may respond with abrupt and potentially irreversible state transitions to a gradual change in forcing once a critical forcing threshold is crossed. With progressing global warming, it becomes more likely that the Amazon will reach such a critical threshold, due to projected reductions of precipitation in tropical South America, which would in turn trigger vegetation transitions from tropical forest to savanna. At the same time, global warming has likely already contributed to a weakening of the AMOC, which induces changes in tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns that in turn affect rainfall patterns in the Amazon. A large-scale decline or even dieback of the Amazon rainforest would imply the loss of the largest terrestrial carbon sink, and thereby have drastic consequences for the global climate. Here, we assess the direct impact of greenhouse gas-driven warming of the tropical Atlantic ocean on Amazon rainfall. In addition, we estimate the effect of an AMOC slowdown or collapse, e. g. induced by freshwater flux into the North Atlantic due to melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, on Amazon rainfall. In order to provide a clear explanation of the underlying dynamics, we use a simple, but robust mathematical approach (based on the classical Stommel two-box model), ensuring consistency with a comprehensive general circulation model (HadGEM3). We find that these two processes, both caused by global warming, are likely to have competing impacts on the rainfall sum in the Amazon, and hence on the stability of the Amazon rainforest. A future AMOC decline may thus counteract direct global-warming-induced rainfall reductions. Tipping of the AMOC from the strong to the weak mode may therefore have a stabilizing effect on the Amazon rainforest.