Forecasts of growth in US residential investment: accuracy gains from consumer home-buying attitudes and expectations

Abstract We formalize the idea that house price changes may drive rational waves of optimism and pessimism in the economy. In our model, a house price increase caused by aggregate disturbances may be misinterpreted as a sign of higher local permanent income, leading households to demand more consumption and housing. Higher demand reinforces the initial price increase in an amplification loop that drives comovement in output, labor, residential investment, land prices, and house prices even in response to aggregate supply shocks. The qualitative implications of our otherwise frictionless model are consistent with observed business cycles and it can explain the economic impact of apparently autonomous changes in sentiment without resorting to non-fundamental shocks or nominal rigidity.

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Student loan debt and first-time home buying in USA

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis ◽

10.1108/ijhma-09-2020-0118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Robert H. Scott III ◽

Steven Bloom

Keyword(s):

College Graduates ◽

Student Loans ◽

Student Loan ◽

Home Equity ◽

Student Loan Debt ◽

Content Type ◽

Loan Debt ◽

The Usa ◽

First Time ◽

Home Buying

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between student loan debt and first-time home buying among college graduates aged 23 to 40 years old in the USA. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Federal Reserve’s 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances data on American households to present descriptive statistics and run logistic regressions that measure the effects of student loan debt on first-time home buying. The authors also present original survey data of mortgage lenders that provides an industry-level perspective. Findings The authors find that having student loan debt does not by itself prohibit first-time home buyers. On the contrary, having student loan debt increases the likelihood of homeownership by 15.1%. People with student loan debt, however, buy homes that are 39.2% less expensive and have 58% less home equity compared to first-time home buyers without student loans. In addition, it is found that the amount of student loan debt is important. People with student loan debt above the median amount among people with student loan debt ($35,000) are 27% less likely to be first-time home buyers. Practical implications This paper provides public policy analysts and other researchers a different perspective on the correlation between student loan debt and home buying. This study focuses narrowly on first-time home buyers who are college graduates between 23 and 40 years. Thus, capturing the youngest cohort of first-time home buyers and examine the primary factors that influence their home buying decisions. Originality/value First-time homebuyers are historically the largest segment of home buyers making them an important subcategory to study. The rise in student loan debt is posited to explain declining homeownership among younger people. The current literature on student loan debt and home buying often studies samples that are too heterogeneous resulting in mixed findings. This paper adds to the existing literature by filtering the sample to study the effects of student loan debt and first-time home buying among people with at least a college degree who are between 23 and 40 years.

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