Construction cost analysis under uncertainty with correlated cost risk analysis model

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Cost Risk

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

Cost-risk contingency framework for managing cost overrun in metropolitan projects: using fuzzy-AHP and simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1121-1139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farman Afzal ◽  
Shao Yunfei ◽  
Danish Junaid ◽  
Muhammad Shehzad Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
The Body ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Uncertainty ◽  
Total Construction Cost ◽  
Cost Risk ◽  
Contingency Framework

PurposeRisk analysis plays a vital role in controlling and managing cost overruns in complex construction projects, particularly where uncertainty is high. This study attempts to address an important issue of cost overrun that encountered by metropolitan rapid transit projects in relation to the significance of risk involved under high uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachIn order to solve cost overrun problems in metropolitan transit projects and facilitate the decision-makers for effective future budgeting, a cost-risk contingency framework has been designed using fuzzy logic, analytical hierarchy process and Monte Carlo simulation.FindingsInitially, a hierarchical breakdown structure of important complexity-driven risk factors has been conceptualized herein using relative importance index. Later, a proposed cost-risk contingency framework has investigated the expected total construction cost in order to consider the additional budgeted cost required to mitigate the risk consequences for particular project activity. The results of cost-risk analysis imply that poor design issues, an increase in material prices and delays in relocating facilities show higher dependency and increase the risk of cost overrun in metropolitan transit projects.Practical implicationsThe findings and implication for project managers could possibly be achieved by assuming the proposed cost-risk contingency framework under high uncertainty of cost found in this research. Furthermore, this procedure may be used by experts from other engineering domains by replacing and considering the complex relationship between complexity-risk factors.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical contingency model to identify and evaluate the additional risk cost required to compute total construction cost for getting stability in future budgeting.

A cost-analysis model for anticoagulant treatment in the hospital setting

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 492-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir H. Mody ◽  
Lynn Huynh ◽  
Daisy Y. Zhuo ◽  
Kevin N. Tran ◽  
Patrick Lefebvre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Hospital Setting ◽  
Anticoagulant Treatment ◽  
Analysis Model

Analysis on Low-Carbon Comprehensive Benefit of Wind Power

2013 ◽  
Vol 860-863 ◽  
pp. 368-374
Author(s):  
Zhao Feng Mi ◽  
Chen Fang ◽  
Jun Jie Zhu ◽  
Jian Lin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Formation Mechanism ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Comprehensive Benefit

Considering economic effect and low-carbon effect the benefit formation mechanism of wind power was analyzed, and then through integrating the benefits from the two aspects by low-carbon economic elements a concept of low-carbon comprehensive benefit was proposed. Combining with construction cost of wind power , an analysis model of low-carbon comprehensive benefit from wind power was built.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

An optimal scheduling policy for upgraded software with updates

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adarsh Anand ◽  
Subhrata Das ◽  
Mohini Agarwal ◽  
Shinji Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Release Time ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Software Upgrades ◽  
Stop Time ◽  
Combined Use

PurposeIn the current market scenario, software upgrades and updates have proved to be very handy in improving the reliability of the software in its operational phase. Software upgrades help in reinventing working software through major changes, like functionality addition, feature enhancement, structural changes, etc. In software updates, minor changes are undertaken which help in improving software performance by fixing bugs and security issues in the current version of the software. Through the current proposal, the authors wish to highlight the economic benefits of the combined use of upgrade and update service. A cost analysis model has been proposed for the same.Design/methodology/approachThe article discusses a cost analysis model highlighting the distinction between launch time and time to end the testing process. The number of bugs which have to be catered in each release has been determined which also consists of the count of latent bugs of previous version. Convolution theory has been utilized to incorporate the joint role of tester and user in bug detection into the model. The cost incurred in debugging process was determined. An optimization model was designed which considers the reliability and budget constraints while minimizing the total debugging cost. This optimization was used to determine the release time and testing stop time.FindingsThe proposal is backed by real-life software bug dataset consisting of four releases. The model was able to successfully determine the ideal software release time and the testing stop time. An increased profit is generated by releasing the software earlier and continues testing long after its release.Originality/valueThe work contributes positively to the field by providing an effective optimization model, which was able to determine the economic benefit of the combined use of upgrade and update service. The model can be used by management to determine their timelines and cost that will be incurred depending on their product and available resources.

A novel failure mode and effect analysis model for machine tool risk analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 173-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huai-Wei Lo ◽  
James J.H. Liou ◽  
Chun-Nen Huang ◽  
Yen-Ching Chuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Machine Tool ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Effect Analysis
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