Australia's Murray-Darling Basin Initiative—Correcting the Record

Abstract Seasonal predictions based on coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) provide useful predictions of large-scale circulation but lack the conditioning on topography required for locally relevant prediction. In this study a statistical downscaling model based on meteorological analogs was applied to continental-scale GCM-based seasonal forecasts and high quality historical site observations to generate a set of downscaled precipitation hindcasts at 160 sites in the South Murray Darling Basin region of Australia. Large-scale fields from the Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) 1.5b GCM-based seasonal prediction system are used for analog selection. Correlation analysis indicates modest levels of predictability in the target region for the selected predictor fields. A single best-match analog was found using model sea level pressure, meridional wind, and rainfall fields, with the procedure applied to 3-month-long reforecasts, initialized on the first day of each month from 1980 to 2006, for each model day of 10 ensemble members. Assessment of the total accumulated rainfall and number of rainy days in the 3-month reforecasts shows that the downscaling procedure corrects the local climate variability with no mean effect on predictive skill, resulting in a smaller magnitude error. The amount of total rainfall and number of rain days in the downscaled output is significantly improved over the direct GCM output as measured by the difference in median and tercile thresholds between station observations and downscaled rainfall. Confidence in the downscaled output is enhanced by strong consistency between the large-scale mean of the downscaled and direct GCM precipitation.

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Temporal variation of larval fish assemblages of the Murray Mouth in prolonged drought conditions

Marine and Freshwater Research ◽

10.1071/mf12278 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 64 (10) ◽

pp. 932 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

L. B. Bucater ◽

J. P. Livore ◽

C. J. Noell ◽

Q. Ye

Keyword(s):

Fish Assemblages ◽

Larval Fish ◽

River System ◽

Sampling Period ◽

Marine Species ◽

Flow Regulation ◽

Nursery Areas ◽

Transition Zones ◽

Murray Darling Basin ◽

Drought Conditions

Estuaries are transition zones that link freshwater and marine ecosystems and are often used as nursery areas by fish. The Murray–Darling Basin, which is heavily affected by flow regulation and water extraction, is the largest river system in Australia and terminates at the Murray Mouth estuary. Protracted drought conditions resulted in extremely low flows to the Murray Mouth that affected water condition, fish abundance, community structure and fish use of the estuary (e.g. nursery areas). The aims of the present study were to examine temporal changes in larval fish assemblages in this estuary. The assemblages were dominated by two gobiid species, Arenigobius bifrenatus and Tasmanogobius lasti. There was a noticeable absence or low abundance of freshwater, diadramous and large-bodied marine species that use this estuary for reproductive functions. Monthly differences in larval fish assemblages, between August–September and October–November, were attributed to increases in the abundances of A. bifrenatus in October and November and oscillation in T. lasti during the entire sampling period. The outcomes of the present study suggested that larval fish assemblages in drought conditions are limited to small-bodied species tolerant of high salinities and that freshwater flows are needed for the estuary to function as a nursery for other species.

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