Information Content in Sneer Asymmetry: An Application to Out-of-Sample Implied Volatility Forecasting

2015 ◽  
Vol 51 (sup3) ◽  
pp. 34-51
Author(s):  
Youngsoo Choi ◽  
Steven J. Jordan ◽  
Wonchang Lee
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Volatility Forecasting ◽  
Out Of Sample

scholarly journals ON THE RELATIONSHIP OF IMPLIED, REALIZED AND HISTORICAL VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM NSE EQUITY INDEX OPTIONS

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 915-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Puja Padhi ◽  
Imlak Shaikh
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Volatility Forecasting ◽  
Variable Technique ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Equity Index ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Index Option ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the information content of implied volatility, using the options of the underlying S&P CNX Nifty index. In this study, implied, historical and realized volatilities are calculated using non-overlapping monthly at-the-money samples. The study covers the period from introduction of options on the derivative segment of NSE, June 2001 to May 2011. The results reveal that call and put implied volatility of S&P CNX Nifty index option does contain information about future realized return volatility. This study accounts for the problem of error-in-variable and controls for it by using the instrumental variable technique. In the 2SLS estimation, the Hausman H-statistic shows that call implied volatility is measured with error. Hence, 2SLS coefficients are more consistent than the OLS estimates. Results of this study might prove to be helpful to the volatility traders in volatility forecasting and option pricing.

scholarly journals Predictability of OTC Option Volatility for Future Stock Volatility

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5200
Author(s):  
Jungmu Kim ◽  
Yuen Jung Park
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Unbiased Estimator ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Options Market ◽  
Over The Counter ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Future Realized Volatility

This study explores the information content of the implied volatility inferred from stock index options in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, which has rarely been studied in the literature. Using OTC calls, puts, and straddles on the KOSPI 200 index, we find that implied volatility generally outperforms historical volatility in predicting future realized volatility, although it is not an unbiased estimator. The results are more apparent for options with shorter maturity. However, while implied volatility has strong predictability during normal periods, historical volatility is superior to implied volatility during a period of crisis due to the liquidity contraction of the OTC options market. This finding suggests that the OTC options market can play a role in conveying important information to predict future volatility.

FORWARD AND FUTURE IMPLIED VOLATILITY

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 407-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAUL GLASSERMAN ◽  
QI WU
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Transition Density ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Piecewise Constant ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Sabr Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Better Than

We address the problem of defining and calculating forward volatility implied by option prices when the underlying asset is driven by a stochastic volatility process. We examine alternative notions of forward implied volatility and the information required to extract these measures from the prices of European options at fixed maturities. We then specialize to the SABR model and show how the asymptotic expansion of the bivariate transition density in Wu (forthcoming) allows calibration of the SABR model with piecewise constant parameters and calculation of forward volatility. We then investigate empirically whether current option prices at multiple maturities contain useful information in predicting future option prices and future implied volatility. We undertake this investigation using data on options on the euro-dollar, sterling-dollar, and dollar-yen exchange rates. We find that prices across maturities do indeed have predictive value. Moreover, we find that model-based forward volatility extracts this predicative information better than a standard "model-free" measure of forward volatility and better than spot implied volatility. The enhancement to out-of-sample forecasting accuracy gained from model-based forward volatility is greatest at longer forecasting horizons.

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