Cannabis Stocks Returns: The Role of Liquidity and Investors’ Attention via Google Metrics

This paper studies one of the most popular investment themes over recent years, investing in the cannabis industry. In particular, it investigates relationships between investor attention, as proxied by Google Trends, and stock market activities, i.e., return, volatility, and liquidity. To this end, in the empirical analysis we study how liquidity and investors’ attention affect the return dynamics of an investment in cannabis stocks by augmenting the three-factor Fama–French model. In addition, we use a vector autoregressive approach and the impulse response function to measure shock transmission between the variables under consideration. Our empirical findings show that there is a statistically positive relationship between cannabis stock returns and liquidity. We also find that increased investors’ attention results in higher returns.

The Impact of External Factors on Stock Return Volatility in the European Banking Sector

Purpose: The main aim of the paper is to examine the impact of external determinants on the banking stock return volatility to evaluate it in terms of the stock market capitalization. Design/methodology/approach: The research was conducted on 182 banks from 26 countries. The sample selected for the study includes all European banks listed on the stock exchange. Quarterly data from the period between 2004 and 2016 was used; it was collected and compiled over a period of 2 years. The research method applied was the panel data model with fixed effects (with or without a robust estimator) and random effects. Findings: Determinants that have a major and statistically significant impact on the analyzed dependent variables are: the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, the beta in Sharpe’s Single-Index Model and the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index and the EURO STOXX50 index. Research limitations/implications: Insights about the strength and direction of influence of these variables on stock return volatility are a valuable addition to the existing body of knowledge that investors resort to when making decisions relating to the capital market. Limitations: The main limitation of this study lies in the fact that the results of the analysis apply solely to the banking sector. Originality/value: Insights about the strength and direction of influence of these variables on stock return volatility are a valuable addition to the existing body of knowledge that investors resort to when making decisions relating to the capital market.

The Dynamic Effects of Anchoring on Portfolio Return Volatility; Are there any economic issues in the developing world?

This study aims to see the anchoring effect on portfolio return volatility in the case of KSE-30. Business anomalies such as overreaction and under-reaction are affected by a variety of psychological causes. The use of anchors or baseline values known as the anchoring effect causes market under-reaction and overreaction. This research used nearness to 52-week high and nearness to historical high as proxies for under and over-reaction, respectively, to analyze the psychological causes for under and over-reaction. On the KSE-30, the findings revealed that proximity to the 52-week peak positively predicts future returns, whereas proximity to the historical high negatively predicts future returns. KSE-30 was used for rigorous testing. Similarly, the three macroeconomic variables used as control variables are the exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate to provide a more robust model of strong prediction capacity. The findings revealed that proximity to the 52-week maximum and proximity to the historical high and other macroeconomic factors had a forecast capacity of around 62 percent. Similarly, focused on volatility clusters, the GARCH (1, 1) model was used to measure the association between potential and past returns. The results show that there is a first order autoregressive function in the GARCH (1, 1) model. The findings also show that their predictive capacity decreases when the study's individual variables are moved from every day to annual Periods.

Politically Connected Firms and Their Stock Return Volatility during High-Visibility Events: Evidence from Malaysia

This study investigates the relationship between political connection and firm stock volatility. We examine whether stock return volatility of politically connected firms differ from non-connected firms during four events. These four events are general election, change of leadership, announcement of government budget, and announcement of policies by the government. This paper uses a volatility event study technique to calculate the abnormal stock return volatility during the four events. We use the data of public-listed firms in Malaysia from 2002 to 2013. The result shows that political connection is associated with higher stock volatility in certain events. They appear to be the most volatile in the event of general election and least volatile during budget announcement. Besides budget announcement, the other three events showed a stronger volatility as they are considered as more of a surprise announcement rather than scheduled announcement. The paper adds to a limited body of literature investigating the relationship between political connection and market behavior in Malaysia and hopes to show that political connection can impact the stock return volatility of firms during high-visibility events in Malaysia.

THE CONNECTEDNESS BETWEEN THE SENTIMENT INDEX AND STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY UNDER COVID-19: A TIME-VARYING PARAMETER VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION APPROACH

We analyze the connectedness between the sentiment index and the return and volatility of the crude oil, stock and gold markets by employing the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model vis-à-vis the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. Our sentiment index is constructed via text mining technology. We also employ a network to visualize and better understand the structure of the connectedness. The results confirm that the sentiment index is the net pairwise directional connectedness receiver, while the infectious disease equity market volatility tracker is the transmitter. Furthermore, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the total connectedness of volatility is unprecedented.

Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: evidence from the Indian Stock Exchange

PurposeIn any stock market, volatility is a significant factor in strengthening their asset pricing. The upsurge in volatility in the stock market can activate and bring changes in the financial risk. According to financial conventional theory, the stakeholders (investors) are selected to be balanced and variations in pertinent risk are also to be anticipated due to the outcome of the drive-in basic factors in Indian stock markets. The hypothesis shows that there are actions in systematic and unsystematic risks that are determined by volatility. It is allied to sentiment-driven in the trader movement.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used the methodology of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in mean GARCH-M and exponential GARCH-M (E-GARCH-M) methods on the Indian stock market. The data have been covered from 2000 to 2019.FindingsFinally, the study suggests that due to the unfitness of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the selection has enhanced with sentiment is an important risk factor.Practical implicationsThe investor sentiment and stock return volatility statement are established by using the investor sentiment amalgamated stock market index built.Originality/valueThe outcome of the study shows that there is an important association between stakeholder (investor) sentiment and stock return, in case of volatility behavioural finance can significantly explain the behaviour of stock returns on the Indian Stock Exchange.

Hedging on the Hill: Does Political Hedging Reduce Firm Risk?

We examine whether firms’ political hedging activities are effective at mitigating political risk. Focusing on the risk induced by partisan politics, we measure political hedging as the degree to which firms’ political connections are balanced across Republican and Democratic candidates. We find that greater political hedging is associated with reduced stock return volatility, particularly during periods of higher policy uncertainty. Similarly, greater political hedging is associated with reduced crash risk, investment volatility, and earnings volatility. Moreover, the reduction in earnings volatility appears to relate to both a firm’s taxes and its operating activities, as we find that greater political hedging is associated with reduced cash effective tax rate volatility and pretax income volatility. We further find investors are better able to anticipate future earnings for firms that engage in political hedging, suggesting that political hedging helps improve firms’ information environments. Lastly, we perform an event study using President Obama’s Clean Power Plan. We find that on the days this policy proposal was debated in Congress, energy and utility firms experienced heightened intraday return volatility (relative to other firms and nonevent days). However, this heightened volatility is mitigated for energy and utility firms that are more politically hedged. Overall, we conclude that political hedging is an effective risk management tool that helps mitigate firm risk. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accounting.

Positive Tone in Management Reports and Volatility of Stock Returns

This article aims to analyse the effects of positive tone in management reports on stock return volatility. It is expected that this article contributes to the literature about disclosure by proposing an objective textual content analysis of management reports, focussing on optimistic words or expressions employed by firms and their effect on stock return volatility. The sample consisted of management reports and financial data from 576 different Brazilian firms’ stocks. Regarding volatility, our measure is based on daily stock returns from 1 April 2011 to 23 October 2020. The data related to positive tone and control variables were based on the fiscal years 2010–2019. Therefore, the database contains 3,945 stock-year observations. The study hypothesis was tested through a regression model with panel data. The main results suggest that companies with higher positive disclosure tone scores do not necessarily present lower stock return volatility in the subsequent period. The objective content of financial reports (for example, in relation to profitability) seems to be related to stock volatility; however, the tone of subjective expressions does not represent the main determinant of stock volatility.

Value and risk effects of financial derivatives: Evidence of corporate governance on hedging, speculation and selective hedging strategies

<p>This study investigates whether there is a relationship between corporate governance and derivatives, whether corporate governance influence in firms impacts the association between derivatives and firm value, and whether corporate governance influence affects the association between derivatives and cash flow volatility, stock return volatility and market risk. This study uses two different data samples of publicly traded firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The first sample comprises a panel of 6900 firm year observations and the other consists of a panel of 6234 firm year observations both over the eight-year period from 2004-2011. With regard to whether there is a relationship between corporate governance and derivatives, the findings from the empirical results show that corporate governance does influence derivatives and therefore is an important determinant in the firm’s decisions to use derivatives. Of the thirteen corporate governance variables examined, board size, institutional shareholders, CEO age, CEO bonus, CEO salary, insider shareholders and total CEO compensation show significant association with derivatives. This study finds that derivative users exhibit higher firm value on account of the corporate governance influence, which is correspondingly largely insignificant for derivative non-users. Further the research indicates that the impact of corporate governance varies according to the different types of risks examined. Generally, the board of directors and CEO governance mechanisms reduce stock return volatility to achieve hedging effectiveness. This supports the view that directors and management take actions to reduce stock return volatility to protect their personal portfolios without having to bear the costs of hedging themselves. With respect to cash flow volatility, the board of directors and CEO related corporate governance mechanisms largely exhibit increased risk to show evidence of speculative behavior. It supports the perceptions that managers and directors have a strong motivation to show higher earnings to protect jobs and reputation and to enhance compensation. All the shareholder governance mechanisms encourage risk taking with respect to stock return volatility, without any increase in firm value. This is in line with research findings of market granularity by institutional and other larger block holders to indicate that these investors increase stock price volatilities and play the markets for their own financial gain. Besides they have little interest in diversifying firm risk as they already have well protected portfolios and would not want to incur additional costs of hedging. The study finds evidence of association between corporate governance and hedging, speculation and selective hedging. Of the thirteen corporate governance variables examined in the study board diversity consistently shows hedging effectiveness, with accompanying increase in firm value. While board meetings, institutional shareholders, block shareholders, CEO age, CEO base salary and CEO compensation exhibit exclusive speculative behavior. The remaining corporate governance mechanisms: board size, insider shareholding, CEO tenure, CEO bonus and audit committee size, show evidence of selective hedging behavior. The concurrent hedging and speculative behavior evidenced in this study supports literature in respect of selective hedging by non-financial firms. It also validates the idea that corporate governance delves in risk allocation strategies that have been evidenced by past research. The results remain unchanged, after using alternative measures for firm value and firm risk, and alternative methods of analyses.</p>