The Short-Term Effect of Election Polls on Foreign Exchange Rates: The 1988 Canadian Federal Election

1991 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary A. Mauser ◽  
Craig Fitzsimmons
Author(s):  
Leong-Kwan Li ◽  
Wan-Kai Pang ◽  
Wing-Tong Yu ◽  
Marvin D. Troutt

Movements in foreign exchange rates are the results of collective human decisions, which are the results of the dynamics of their neurons. In this chapter, we demonstrate how to model these types of market behaviors by recurrent neural networks (RNN). The RNN approach can help us to forecast the short-term trend of foreign exchange rates. The application of forecasting techniques in the foreign exchange markets has become an important task in financial strategy. Our empirical results show that a discrete-time RNN performs better than the traditional methods in forecasting short-term foreign exchange rates.


Author(s):  
Vasily Derbentsev ◽  
◽  
Vitalii Bezkorovainyi ◽  
Andrey Ovcharenko ◽  
◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Florian Arendt

A test was done to see if reading a newspaper which consistently overrepresents foreigners as criminals strengthens the automatic association between foreign country and criminal in memory (i.e., implicit cultivation). Further, an investigation was done to find out if reading articles from the same newspaper produces a short-term effect on the same measure and if (1) emotionalization of the newspaper texts, (2) emotional reactions of the reader (indicated by arousal), and (3) attributed text credibility moderate the short-term treatment effect. Eighty-five participants were assigned to one of three experimental conditions. Participants in the control group received short factual crime texts, where the nationality of the offender was not mentioned. Participants in the factual treatment group received the same texts, but the foreign nationality was mentioned. Participants in the emotionalized treatment group received emotionalized articles (i.e., texts which are high in vividness and frequency) covering the same crimes, with the foreign nationality mentioned. Supporting empirical evidence for implicit cultivation and a short-term effect was found. However, only emotionalized articles produced a short-term effect on the strength of the automatic association, indicating that newspaper texts must have a minimum of stimulus intensity to overcome an effect threshold. There were no moderating effects of arousal or credibility pertaining to the impact on the implicit measure. However, credibility moderated the short-term effect on a first-order judgment (i.e., estimated frequency of foreigners of all criminals). This indicates that a newspaper’s effect on the strength of automatic associations is relatively independent from processes of propositional reasoning.


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