Special features of tight gas reserves determination, based on material balance method, were characterized, since reliability of initial hydrocarbons in place determination plays important role in future field development planning, particularly on recovery rate, wells to be drilled, capital expenditures, surface facilities etc. Using the synthetic 3D model of gas reservoir, different development scenarios were evaluated according to the different spatial distribution patterns of petrophysical properties within the reservoir. Analyzing the obtained results, the authors fully confirmed an assumption made, that significant heterogeneity of reservoir properties makes a great impact on the shape of pseudo reservoir pressure curve vs cumulative gas produced and introduces significant errors into determination of initial gas in place. At the late stages of the development, the slope of P/z straight line changes, and this allows determination of much greater reserves’ volumes. Usage of pseudo reservoir pressure vs cumulative produced gas for determination of drained reserves in tight gas formation is especially risky, because the production data can indicate the true volumes of gas in place, only after the majority of the gas been produced. In most cases, the development period to acquire necessary data for correct volumes in place estimation exceeds the planning period. This factor introduces the significant error into future field development during the planning phase. Due to that, at the initial development stages, the error in drained volumes estimation can account for 50% out of true initial volumes in place. Based on conducted research, the potential error evaluation for tight gas reservoirs initial gas in place determination with decline pressure material balance method was performed. According to the results of computer simulation, the error can account for 25% from true initial gas in place in simulation model. This error significantly excesses the acceptable limits and can lead to wrong decisions in development planning
Fuzzy material balance method to model hydrocarbon field development
