The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project recognizes that major improvements are needed in how the tropics are represented in climate models. Tropical convection is organized into multiscale precipitation systems with an underlying chaotic order. These organized systems act as building blocks for meteorological events at the intersection of weather and climate (time scales up to seasonal). These events affect a large percentage of the world's population. Much of the uncertainty associated with weather and climate derives from incomplete understanding of how meteorological systems on the mesoscale (~1–100 km), synoptic scale (~1,000 km), and planetary scale (~10,000 km) interact with each other. This uncertainty complicates attempts to predict high-impact phenomena associated with the tropical atmosphere, such as tropical cyclones, the Madden–Julian oscillation, convectively coupled tropical waves, and the monsoons. These and other phenomena influence the extratropics by migrating out of the tropics and by the remote effects of planetary waves, including those generated by the MJO. The diurnal and seasonal cycles modulate all of the above. It will be impossible to accurately predict climate on regional scales or to comprehend the variability of the global water cycle in a warmer world without comprehensively addressing tropical convection and its interactions across space and time scales.
CMIP5 update of ‘Inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 coupled climate models’
