scholarly journals Transferability Intercomparison: An Opportunity for New Insight on the Global Water Cycle and Energy Budget

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. S. Takle ◽  
J. Roads ◽  
B. Rockel ◽  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
R. W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Water

A new approach, called transferability intercomparisons, is described for advancing both understanding and modeling of the global water cycle and energy budget. Under this approach, individual regional climate models perform simulations with all modeling parameters and parameterizations held constant over a specific period on several prescribed domains representing different climatic regions. The transferability framework goes beyond previous regional climate model intercomparisons to provide a global method for testing and improving model parameterizations by constraining the simulations within analyzed boundaries for several domains. Transferability intercomparisons expose the limits of our current regional modeling capacity by examining model accuracy on a wide range of climate conditions and realizations. Intercomparison of these individual model experiments provides a means for evaluating strengths and weaknesses of models outside their “home domains” (domain of development and testing). Reference sites that are conducting coordinated measurements under the continental-scale experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Hydrometeorology Panel provide data for evaluation of model abilities to simulate specific features of the water and energy cycles. A systematic intercomparison across models and domains more clearly exposes collective biases in the modeling process. By isolating particular regions and processes, regional model transferability intercomparisons can more effectively explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of predictability. A general improvement of model ability to simulate diverse climates will provide more confidence that models used for future climate scenarios might be able to simulate conditions on a particular domain that are beyond the range of previously observed climates.

scholarly journals WATCH: Current Knowledge of the Terrestrial Global Water Cycle

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1149-1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Harding ◽  
Martin Best ◽  
Eleanor Blyth ◽  
Stefan Hagemann ◽  
Pavel Kabat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Water

Abstract Water-related impacts are among the most important consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Changes in the global water cycle will also impact the carbon and nutrient cycles and vegetation patterns. There is already some evidence of increasing severity of floods and droughts and increasing water scarcity linked to increasing greenhouse gases. So far, however, the most important impacts on water resources are the direct interventions by humans, such as dams, water extractions, and river channel modifications. The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project is a major international initiative to bring together climate and water scientists to better understand the current and future water cycle. This paper summarizes the underlying motivation for the WATCH project and the major results from a series of papers published or soon to be published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology WATCH special collection. At its core is the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP), which brings together a wide range of global hydrological and land surface models run with consistent driving data. It is clear that we still have considerable uncertainties in the future climate drivers and in how the river systems will respond to these changes. There is a grand challenge to the hydrological and climate communities to both reduce these uncertainties and communicate them to a wider society.

scholarly journals Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Nikolina Ban ◽  
Nigel M. Roberts ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.

scholarly journals A data-driven approach for assessing ice-sheet mass balance in space and time

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (70) ◽  
pp. 175-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Zammit-Mangion ◽  
Jonathan L. Bamber ◽  
Nana W. Schoen ◽  
Jonathan C. Rougier
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Smoothing Methods ◽  
Combination Methods ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractCombinations of various numerical models and datasets with diverse observation characteristics have been used to assess the mass evolution of ice sheets. As a consequence, a wide range of estimates have been produced using markedly different methodologies, data, approximation methods and model assumptions. Current attempts to reconcile these estimates using simple combination methods are unsatisfactory, as common sources of errors across different methodologies may not be accurately quantified (e.g. systematic biases in models). Here we provide a general approach which deals with this issue by considering all data sources simultaneously, and, crucially, by reducing the dependence on numerical models. The methodology is based on exploiting the different space–time characteristics of the relevant ice-sheet processes, and using statistical smoothing methods to establish the causes of the observed change. In omitting direct dependence on numerical models, the methodology provides a novel means for assessing glacio-isostatic adjustment and climate models alike, using remote-sensing datasets. This is particularly advantageous in Antarctica, where in situ measurements are difficult to obtain. We illustrate the methodology by using it to infer Antarctica’s mass trend from 2003 to 2009 and produce surface mass-balance anomaly estimates to validate the RACMO2.1 regional climate model.

Supplement to Transferability Intercomparison: An Opportunity for New Insight on the Global Water Cycle and Energy Budget

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. S1-S4 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. S. Takle ◽  
J. Roads ◽  
B. Rockel ◽  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
R. W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Global Water

Global water cycle agreement in the climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (16) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Waliser ◽  
K.-W. Seo ◽  
S. Schubert ◽  
E. Njoku
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Ipcc Ar4 ◽  
Global Water

scholarly journals The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I initiative: Description and highlight results from the initial analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Sabina Abba Omar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Initial Analysis ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractWe describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of 21st century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over 9 CORDEX domains at ~25 km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. van den Hurk ◽  
A.K. Tank ◽  
G. Lenderink ◽  
A. van Ulden ◽  
G.J. van Oldenborgh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

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