402 Background: Altered cell cycle dynamics and check points are typical features of solid tumors, and cyclin dependent kinases (CDKs) play pivotal roles in these processes. Previously we have demonstrated that CDK-based analysis, composed of CDK1 and CDK2, is useful in the prediction of outcomes in early breast cancer patients (Ann Oncol. 19(1):68-72, 2008, Br J Cancer. 100(3):494-500, 2009). Clinically, there is a need for risk stratification in patients with stage II colon cancer who have a recurrence risk of 20 to 30%. Therefore we investigated the use of CDK-based analysis for recurrence prediction of stage II colon cancer patients. Methods: Fresh frozen tissue samples of 254 patients with histologically confirmed adenocarcinoma of the colon, UICC stage II, who received primary tumor resection in Munich (217 cases), and Leiden (37 cases) were used. Protein expression and activity of CDK1 and CDK2 were determined by in vitro assays as previously described. Specific activity (SA) of CDKs was calculated as kinase activity in relation to its corresponding mass concentration. Results: Development of distant metastasis was observed in 27 patients (10.6%) after a median follow up of 86 months. We found that predictive performance of CDK1SA, but not CDK2SA, for the metastasis was substantial and almost constant for long-term event prediction (average area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69). Tumor recurrence risk analysis in association with CDK1SA identified a low- (41% of population) and high- risk group (59%). Cox proportional hazard model analysis retained the CDK-based patient classification as an independent prognostic factor for distant metastases-free survival (low vs. high-risk group: Hazard ratio = 6.2, 95% CI: 1.45 to 26.9, p=0.0049). Clinical parameters such as grading, T-categories, age, and sex were excluded as confounding factors for CDK1SA-risk. Conclusions: CDK1SA allows stratification of different risk subgroups of stage II colon cancer patients. CDK1SA-based analysis is useful for predicting patients with high risk of distant recurrence, who should be treated with chemotherapy. No significant financial relationships to disclose.
Prognostic value of MACC1 and proficient mismatch repair status for recurrence risk prediction in stage II colon cancer patients: the BIOGRID studies