AbstractAccurately describing the lives of historical figures can be challenging, but unraveling their social structures perhaps is even more so. Historical social network analysis methods can help in this regard and may even illuminate individuals who have been overlooked by historians, but turn out to be influential social connection points. Text data, such as biographies, are a useful source of information for learning historical social networks but the identifcation of links based on text data can be challenging. The Local Poisson Graphical Lasso model models social networks by conditional independence structures, and leverages the number of name co-mentions in the text to infer relationships. However, this method does not take into account the abundance of covariate information that is often available in text data. Conditional independence structure like Poisson Graphical Model, which makes use name mention counts in the text can be useful tools to avoid false positive links due to the co-mentions but given historical tendency of frequently used or common names, without additional distinguishing information, we may introduce incorrect connections. In this work, we therefore extend the Local Poisson Graphical Lasso model with a (multiple) penalty structure that incorporates covariates, opening up the opportunity for similar individuals to have a higher probability of being connected. We propose both greedy and Bayesian approaches to estimate the penalty parameters. We present results on data simulated with characteristics of historical networks and show that this type of penalty structure can improve network recovery as measured by precision and recall. We also illustrate the approach on biographical data of individuals who lived in early modern Britain between 1500 and 1575. We will show how these covariates affect the statistical model’s performance using simulations, discuss how it helps to better identify links for the people with common names and those who are traditionally underrepresented in the biography text data.
Empirical Bayes conditional independence graphs for regulatory network recovery
