Seasonal Variability of Relationship between Main Ionospheric Characteristics and Solar/Geomagnetic Indices via Graphical Models of Conditional Independences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kateřina Podolská ◽  
Petra Koucká Knížová ◽  
Jaroslav Chum
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Graphical Models ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Conditional Independence ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Seasonal Differences ◽  
Ionospheric Response ◽  
Geomagnetic Indices ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Independence Graphs

<p>We investigated seasonal variations of relationships between main ionospheric characteristics and solar and geomagnetic indices in longitudinal perspective. We consider statistically significant differences in connections of ionospheric response to the F10.7cm, R, and Kp indices on seasonal time-scales during years 1975 – 2010 covering 21<sup>st</sup> – 23<sup>rd</sup> Solar Cycles. The periods of 21 days before and after Winter/Summer Solstices and Vernal/Autumnal Equinoces are considered as season. The foF2 time series in our analysis represent measurements of daily observational data which were obtained using mid-latitude (41.4°N – 54°N) ionosondes (Chilton, Slough RL052/SL051, Juliusruh/Rugen JR055, Boulder BC840). We used local time noon 5-hour foF2 averages. For the investigation, we used seasonal differences method of conditional independence graphs (CIG) models. Significant seasonal variations are visible during ascending and descending phases of Solar cycles.</p>

The LDE-Type Flare Occurrence (1969-1993)

1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 279-282
Author(s):  
A. Antalová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fourier Analysis ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
List Type ◽  
Type Number ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Type Iv ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Cycle Maximum ◽  
Flare Index

AbstractThe occurrence of LDE-type flares in the last three cycles has been investigated. The Fourier analysis spectrum was calculated for the time series of the LDE-type flare occurrence during the 20-th, the 21-st and the rising part of the 22-nd cycle. LDE-type flares (Long Duration Events in SXR) are associated with the interplanetary protons (SEP and STIP as well), energized coronal archs and radio type IV emission. Generally, in all the cycles considered, LDE-type flares mainly originated during a 6-year interval of the respective cycle (2 years before and 4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum). The following significant periodicities were found:• in the 20-th cycle: 1.4, 2.1, 2.9, 4.0, 10.7 and 54.2 of month,• in the 21-st cycle: 1.2, 1.6, 2.8, 4.9, 7.8 and 44.5 of month,• in the 22-nd cycle, till March 1992: 1.4, 1.8, 2.4, 7.2, 8.7, 11.8 and 29.1 of month,• in all interval (1969-1992):a)the longer periodicities: 232.1, 121.1 (the dominant at 10.1 of year), 80.7, 61.9 and 25.6 of month,b)the shorter periodicities: 4.7, 5.0, 6.8, 7.9, 9.1, 15.8 and 20.4 of month.Fourier analysis of the LDE-type flare index (FI) yields significant peaks at 2.3 - 2.9 months and 4.2 - 4.9 months. These short periodicities correspond remarkably in the all three last solar cycles. The larger periodicities are different in respective cycles.

scholarly journals Complexity traits and synchrony of cryptocurrencies price dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Provenzano ◽  
Rodolfo Baggio
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Complex Structures ◽  
Slope Parameter ◽  
Exponential Distributions ◽  
Horizontal Visibility ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Visibility Algorithm ◽  
Similar Complex

AbstractIn this study, we characterized the dynamics and analyzed the degree of synchronization of the time series of daily closing prices and volumes in US$ of three cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, over the period September 1,2015–March 31, 2020. Time series were first mapped into a complex network by the horizontal visibility algorithm in order to revel the structure of their temporal characters and dynamics. Then, the synchrony of the time series was investigated to determine the possibility that the cryptocurrencies under study co-bubble simultaneously. Findings reveal similar complex structures for the three virtual currencies in terms of number and internal composition of communities. To the aim of our analysis, such result proves that price and volume dynamics of the cryptocurrencies were characterized by cyclical patterns of similar wavelength and amplitude over the time period considered. Yet, the value of the slope parameter associated with the exponential distributions fitted to the data suggests a higher stability and predictability for Bitcoin and Litecoin than for Ethereum. The study of synchrony between the time series investigated displayed a different degree of synchronization between the three cryptocurrencies before and after a collapse event. These results could be of interest for investors who might prefer to switch from one cryptocurrency to another to exploit the potential opportunities of profit generated by the dynamics of price and volumes in the market of virtual currencies.

scholarly journals The effects of daily meteorological perturbation on pregnancy outcome: follow-up of a cohort of young women undergoing IVF treatment

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingpeng Zhao ◽  
Haoyang Zhang ◽  
Tarah H. B. Waters ◽  
Jacqueline Pui Wah Chung ◽  
Tin Chiu Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Subgroup Analysis ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Human Reproduction ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Patient Consent

Abstract Background Human reproduction follows a seasonal pattern with respect to spontaneous conception, a phenomenon wherein the effect of meteorological fluctuations might not be unique. However, the effect of seasonal variations on patients who underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological variation on the pregnancy rate in a cohort undergoing IVF treatment by performing multivariable analyses. Methods We conducted a cohort study in a sub-tropical region with prominent seasonal variations (2005–2016). Women aged < 35 years who were treated with a long ovarian stimulation protocol and underwent fresh embryo transfer (ER) were included. Data on gonadotropin administration (CYCL), oocyte retrieval (OR), ER, and pregnancy outcomes were prospectively recorded. For each patient, the daily average of meteorological data (temperature, humidity, sunlight duration, solar radiation) was recorded from the date of CYCL to ER. Multiple logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, fertilization method, year of the cycle, gonadotropin dose, and transferred embryo grade was performed to determine the relationship between the meteorological parameters and clinical pregnancy. Patients with one successful cycle and one failed cycle were subtracted for a case-control subgroup analysis through mixed effect logistics regressions. Time-series analysis of data in the epidemic level was conducted using the distributed lag linear and non-linear models (DLNMs). Results There were 1029 fresh cycles in 860 women (mean age 31.9 ± 2.0 years). Higher mean temperature from CYCL to OR (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.07, P = 0.01) increased the odds of pregnancy, while OR to ER did not show any statistical significance. Compared to that in winter, the odds of becoming pregnant were higher during higher temperature seasons, summer and autumn (aOR 1.47, 95%CI 0.97–2.23, P = 0.07 (marginally significant) and aOR 1.73, 95%CI 1.12–2.68, P = 0.02, respectively). Humidity, sunlight duration, and solar radiation had no effect on the outcome. The subgroup analysis confirmed this finding. The time-series analysis revealed a positive association between temperature and relative risk for pregnancy. Conclusions In IVF treatment, the ambient temperature variation alters the pregnancy rates; this aspect must be considered when obtaining patient consent for assisted conception.

scholarly journals Changes in the Use of Broad-Spectrum Antibiotics after Cefepime Shortage: a Time Series Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 989-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Plüss-Suard ◽  
A. Pannatier ◽  
C. Ruffieux ◽  
A. Kronenberg ◽  
K. Mühlemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Pseudomonas Aeruginosa ◽  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Antibiotic Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Broad Spectrum Antibiotics ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Alternative Antibiotic ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThe original cefepime product was withdrawn from the Swiss market in January 2007 and replaced by a generic 10 months later. The goals of the study were to assess the impact of this cefepime shortage on the use and costs of alternative broad-spectrum antibiotics, on antibiotic policy, and on resistance ofPseudomonas aeruginosatoward carbapenems, ceftazidime, and piperacillin-tazobactam. A generalized regression-based interrupted time series model assessed how much the shortage changed the monthly use and costs of cefepime and of selected alternative broad-spectrum antibiotics (ceftazidime, imipenem-cilastatin, meropenem, piperacillin-tazobactam) in 15 Swiss acute care hospitals from January 2005 to December 2008. Resistance ofP. aeruginosawas compared before and after the cefepime shortage. There was a statistically significant increase in the consumption of piperacillin-tazobactam in hospitals with definitive interruption of cefepime supply and of meropenem in hospitals with transient interruption of cefepime supply. Consumption of each alternative antibiotic tended to increase during the cefepime shortage and to decrease when the cefepime generic was released. These shifts were associated with significantly higher overall costs. There was no significant change in hospitals with uninterrupted cefepime supply. The alternative antibiotics for which an increase in consumption showed the strongest association with a progression of resistance were the carbapenems. The use of alternative antibiotics after cefepime withdrawal was associated with a significant increase in piperacillin-tazobactam and meropenem use and in overall costs and with a decrease in susceptibility ofP. aeruginosain hospitals. This warrants caution with regard to shortages and withdrawals of antibiotics.

A comparison of global suicide terrorism by region before and after 9/11 terrorist attacks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmet Guler ◽  
Mustafa Demir
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Suicide Terrorism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on suicide terrorism in different regions of the world and changes in the trends in suicide terrorism according to regions before and after 9/11. Design/methodology/approach Using the data obtained from the Global Terrorism Database from 1981 to 2019, the descriptive statistics were computed first and then, independent samples t-tests were run to compare the monthly mean percentage of suicide-terrorism incidents that occurred in each region between the pre-9/11 and the post-9/11 periods. Finally, to statistically assess the effect of the 9/11 attacks and changes in the trends for the dependent variables over time, monthly interrupted time-series analyzes were conducted. Findings The results of monthly interrupted time series analyzes showed that after the 9/11 attacks, the trends for suicide-terrorism rates decreased significantly in three regions including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and Europe, while the trend for suicide-terrorism rates increased significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, no statistically significant changes in the trends in suicide-terrorism rates occurred in three regions including North America, East Asia and Central Asia and Southeast Asia before 9/11, during November 2001 or after 9/11. Originality/value This study indicates the critical importance of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in suicide terrorism and its impact on these events in different regions of the world. The research also provides some recommendations concerning the effectiveness of defensive and offensive counterterrorism policies against suicide terrorism.

scholarly journals Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhichao Guo ◽  
Yuanhua Feng ◽  
Thomas Gries
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Middle Part ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by China’s accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. Design/methodology/approach – The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series. Then time series and regression models are used to compare differences of trade relationship before and after the detected change points. The methods can be employed in any economic series and work well in practice. Findings – The results indicate that structural breaks in 2002 and 2009 are caused by China’s accession to WTO and the financial crisis. Time series and regression models show that the development of China’s exports to Germany in agri-food products has different features in different sub-periods. Before 1999, there is no significant relationship between China’s exports to Germany and Germany’s imports from the world. Between 2002 and 2008 the former depends on the latter very strongly, and China’s exports to Germany developed quickly and stably. It decreased, however suddenly in 2009, caused by the great reduction of Germany’s imports from the world in that year. But China’s market share in Germany still had a small gain. Analysis of two categories in agri-food trade also leads to similar conclusions. Comparing the two events we see rather different patterns even if they both indicate structural breaks in the development of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. Originality/value – This paper partly originally proposes two statistical algorithms for detecting different kinds of structural breaks in the middle part and at the end of a short-time series, respectively.

scholarly journals Microteaching Guided by an Expert Secondary English Teacher: The Effect on Pre-Service English Teachers’ Pedagogical Content Knowledge

Pedagogika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 139 (3) ◽  
pp. 111-135
Author(s):  
Siti Aimah ◽  
Dwi Rukmini ◽  
Mursid Saleh ◽  
Dwi Anggani Linggar Bharati
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Content Knowledge ◽  
English Teachers ◽  
English Teacher ◽  
Single Group ◽  
Secondary English ◽  
Pedagogical Content ◽  
Series Design ◽  
Equivalent Time ◽  
Before And After

This study aims to determine the effect of microteaching guided by an expert secondary English teacher on pre-service English teachers PCK, focusing on the changes before and after expert-guided microteaching. The equivalent time-series design involves a single-group, repeatedly assessed, with the treatment introduced between the measurements. Expert-guided microteaching significantly affects pre-service English teachers’ PCK and triggers them to know what to teach and how to teach for students.

scholarly journals Digital cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia and primary care costs in England: an interrupted time series analysis

BJGP Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. BJGPO.2021.0146
Author(s):  
Chris Sampson ◽  
Eleanor Bell ◽  
Amanda Cole ◽  
Christopher B Miller ◽  
Tracey Marriott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cognitive Behavioural Therapy ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Behavioural Therapy ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Cognitive Behavioural ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Care Costs

BackgroundSleepio is an automated digital programme that delivers cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia (dCBT-I). Sleepio has been proven effective in improving sleep difficulties. However, evidence for the possible impact of Sleepio use on health care costs in the United Kingdom has not previously been developed.AimWe sought to identify the effect of a population-wide rollout of Sleepio in terms of primary care costs in the National Health Service (NHS) in England.Design & settingThe study was conducted in the Thames Valley region of England, where access to Sleepio was made freely available to all residents between October 2018 and January 2020. The study relies on a quasi-experimental design, using an interrupted time series to compare the trend in primary care costs before and after the rollout of Sleepio.MethodWe use primary care data for people with relevant characteristics from nine general practices in Buckinghamshire. Primary care costs include general practice contacts and prescriptions. Segmented regression analysis was used to estimate primary and secondary outcomes.ResultsFor the 10,704 patients included in our sample, the total saving over the 65-week follow-up period was £71,027. This corresponds to £6.64 per person in our sample or around £70.44 per Sleepio user. Secondary analyses suggest that savings may be driven primarily by reductions in prescribing.ConclusionSleepio rollout reduced primary care costs. National adoption of Sleepio may reduce primary care costs by £20 million in the first year. The expected impact on primary care costs in any particular setting will depend on the uptake of Sleepio.

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