M-Class Solar Flares in Solar Cycles 23 and 24: Properties and Space Weather Relevance

A comprehensive statistical analysis on the properties and accompanied phenomena of all M-class solar flares (as measured in soft X-rays) in the last two solar cycles (1996–2019) is presented here with a focus on their space weather potential. The information about the parent active region and the underlying sunspot (Hale) type is collected for each case, where possible, in order to identify photospheric precondition as precursors for the solar flare eruption or confinement. Associations with coronal mass ejections, solar energetic particles, and interplanetary radio emissions are also evaluated and discussed as possible proxies for flare eruption and subsequent space weather relevance. The results show that the majority (∼80%) of the analyzed M-class flares are of β, β-γ, and β-γ-δ magnetic field configuration. The M-class population of flares is accompanied by CMEs in 41% of the cases and about half of the flare sample has been associated with radio emission from electron beams. A much lower association (≲10%) is obtained with shock wave radio signatures and energetic particles. Furthermore, a parametric scheme is proposed in terms of occurrence rates between M-class flares and a variety of accompanied solar phenomena as a function of flare sub-classes or magnetic type. This study confirms the well-known reduced but inevitable space weather importance of M-class flares.

Evaluation of the UMASEP-10 Version 2 Tool for Predicting All >10 MeV SEP Events of Solar Cycles 22, 23 and 24

The prediction of solar energetic particle (SEP) events may help to improve the mitigation of adverse effects on humans and technology in space. UMASEP (University of Málaga Solar particle Event Predictor) is an empirical model scheme that predicts SEP events. This scheme is based on a dual-model approach. The first model predicts well-connected events by using an improved lag-correlation algorithm for analyzing soft X-ray (SXR) and differential proton fluxes to estimate empirically the Sun–Earth magnetic connectivity. The second model predicts poorly connected events by analyzing the evolution of differential proton fluxes. This study presents the evaluation of UMASEP-10 version 2, a tool based on the aforementioned scheme for predicting all >10 MeV SEP events, including those without associated flare. The evaluation of this tool is presented in terms of the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and average warning time (AWT). The best performance was achieved for the solar cycle 24 (i.e., 2008–2019), obtaining a POD of 91.1% (41/45), a FAR of 12.8% (6/47) and an AWT of 2 h 46 min. These results show that UMASEP-10 version 2 obtains a high POD and low FAR mainly because it is able to detect true Sun–Earth magnetic connections.

Predicting the Daily 10.7-cm Solar Radio Flux Using the Long Short-Term Memory Method

As an important index of solar activity, the 10.7-cm solar radio flux (F10.7) can indicate changes in the solar EUV radiation, which plays an important role in the relationship between the Sun and the Earth. Therefore, it is valuable to study and forecast F10.7. In this study, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method in machine learning is used to predict the daily value of F10.7. The F10.7 series from 1947 to 2019 are used. Among them, the data during 1947–1995 are adopted as the training dataset, and the data during 1996–2019 (solar cycles 23 and 24) are adopted as the test dataset. The fourfold cross validation method is used to group the training set for multiple validations. We find that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction results is only 6.20~6.35 sfu, and the correlation coefficient (R) is as high as 0.9883~0.9889. The overall prediction accuracy of the LSTM method is equivalent to those of the widely used autoregressive (AR) and backpropagation neural network (BP) models. Especially for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, the LSTM model is slightly better. All this demonstrates the potentiality of the LSTM method in the real-time forecasting of F10.7 in future.

Changes in the Near-surface Shear Layer of the Sun

We use helioseismic data obtained over two solar cycles to determine whether there are changes in the near-surface shear layer (NSSL). We examine this by determining the radial gradient of the solar rotation rate. The radial gradient itself shows a solar-cycle dependence, and the changes are more pronounced in the active latitudes than at adjoining higher latitudes; results at the highest latitudes (≳70°) are unreliable. The pattern changes with depth, even within the NSSL. We find that the near-surface shear layer is deeper at lower latitudes than at high latitudes and that the extent of the layer also shows a small solar-cycle-related change.

What Seismic Minimum Reveals about Solar Magnetism below the Surface

The Sun’s magnetic field varies on multiple timescales. Observations show that the minimum between cycles 24 and 25 was the second consecutive minimum that was deeper and wider than several earlier minima. Since the active regions observed at the Sun’s surface are manifestations of the magnetic field generated in the interior, it is crucial to investigate/understand the dynamics below the surface. In this context, we report by probing the solar interior with helioseismic techniques applied to long-term oscillations data from the Global Oscillation Network Group, that the seismic minima in deeper layers have been occurring about a year earlier than that at the surface for the last two consecutive solar cycles. Our findings also demonstrate a decrease in strong magnetic fields at the base of the convection zone, the primary driver of the surface magnetic activity. We conclude that the magnetic fields located in the core and near-surface shear layers, in addition to the tachocline fields, play an important role in modifying the oscillation frequencies. This further strengthens the existence of a relic magnetic field in the Sun’s core.

A Study of Solar Flare Effects on the Geomagnetic Field Components during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

In this paper, we investigated the impact of solar flares on the horizontal (H), eastward (Y) and vertical (Z) components of the geomagnetic field during solar cycles 23 and 24 (SC23/24) using data of magnetometer measurements on the sunlit side of the Earth. We examined the relation between sunspot number and solar flare occurrence of various classes during both cycles. During SC23/24, we obtained correlation coefficient of 0.93/0.97, 0.96/0.96 and 0.60/0.56 for C-class, M-class and X-class flare, respectively. The three components of the geomagnetic field reached a peak a few minutes after the solar flare occurrence. Generally, the magnetic crochet of the H component was negative between the mid-latitudes and Low-latitudes in both hemispheres and positive at low latitudes. By contrast, the analysis of the latitudinal variation of the Y and Z components showed that unlike the H component, their patterns of variations were not coherent in latitude. The peak amplitude of solar flare effect (sfe) on the various geomagnetic components depended on many factors including the local time at the observing station, the solar zenith angle, the position of the station with respect to the magnetic equator, the position of solar flare on the sun and the intensity of the flare. Thus, these peaks were stronger for the stations around the magnetic equator and very low when the geomagnetic field components were close to their nighttime values. Both cycles presented similar monthly variations with the highest sfe value (ΔHsfe = 48.82 nT for cycle 23 and ΔHsfe = 24.68 nT for cycle 24) registered in September and lowest in June for cycle 23 (ΔHsfe = 8.69 nT) and July for cycle 24 (ΔHsfe = 10.69 nT). Furthermore, the sfe was generally higher in cycle 23 than in cycle 24.

Solar Wind Parameters and Its Geoefficiency During Minimums of Four Solar Cycles

Recently a number of publications have appeared on the long and deep minimum in cycle 23 of solar activity. This interest is due to the fact that it turned out to be the longest and deepest in terms of the number of sunspots in the entire era of space exploration. The features of the minimum of cycle 23 of solar activity and the beginning of cycle 24 made it possible to assume that in the coming decades, a minimum of solar activity similar to the Dalton or Maunder minimum, leading to a global change in the earth's climate, may occur. Such assumptions make a detailed study of the influence of the minimum of solar cycle 23 on the parameters of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field, as well as a comparison of this influence with similar manifestations in the three previous cycles very urgent. The work carried out statistical processing and analysis of data available in print and on the Internet on the indices of solar activity (W and F10.7), on geomagnetic activity, as well as on the parameters of the solar wind and interplanetary field. In contrast to other similar studies, when choosing time intervals for all cycles, only one — 12 months was used, which made it possible to exclude annual and semi-annual variations in solar wind parameters. For the considered minima of solar activity, the geoeffectiveness of the disturbed fluxes ICME, CIR, and Sheath was considered. A monotonic and very significant decrease in the geoeffectiveness of the ICME streams was found. Data processing on the hourly average values of the solar wind parameters at the minima of geomagnetic activity for 4 cycles confirmed the significant difference between cycle 23 and the previous ones in the behavior of the magnetic field. The cycle-by-cycle decrease in the geoeffectiveness of coronal ejections discussed in the press deserves a more detailed analysis using extensive data on magnetic activity indices.