Determinants of trajectories of cardiac allograft vasculopathy after heart transplantation: a population based study

Background Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is a major contributor of heart transplant recipient's mortality. Little is known about determinants of CAV trajectories at a population level. Purpose We aimed to identify the respective contribution of immune and non-immune factors in the different evolutive profiles of CAV. Methods Heart transplant recipients receiving care at 2 academic centers (2004 to 2016) were included. Patients underwent prospective, protocol-based monitoring consisting of repeated coronary angiographies together with systematic assessment of clinical, functional, histological and immunological parameters. The outcome was CAV trajectories, identified with unsupervised latent class mixed models. The independent, predictive factors of CAV trajectories were investigated with multinomial regressions (NCT04117152). Results Overall, 815 patients were included. The median follow-up post-transplant was 7.7 years (IQR=5.14) with 2,742 coronary angiographies analyzed. We identified 4 distinct profiles of CAV trajectories over 10 years that were characterized by i) Patients without CAV at baseline and non-progression (n=459, 56.3%), ii) patients without CAV at baseline and late onset CAV progression (n=62, 7.6%), iii) patients with mild baseline CAV and mild progression (n=188 23.1%), iv) patients with mild baseline CAV and accelerated CAV progression (n=106, 13.0%, discrimination 0.92). Six early independent predictors of CAV trajectories were identified: donor age (p<0.001), donor male gender (p<0.001), donor tobacco consumption (p=0.001), recipient post-transplant dyslipidemia (p=0.009), preexisting or de novo class II anti-HLA donor-specific antibodies (p=0.004) and episode of acute cellular rejection ≥2R during the first year post transplantation (p=0.028). Conclusion In a large multicentric and highly phenotyped prospective cohort of heart transplant recipients, we identified 4 robust CAV trajectories and their respective immune and non-immune determinants. Our results provide the basis for a trajectory-based assessment of heart transplant patients for early patient risk stratification and patient monitoring. Factors associated CAV trajectories in multivariate analyses in the derivation cohort. This table shows the association of clinical, immunological, functional and structural parameters associated with CAV trajectories in multivariate multinomial regression analysis. The trajectory of reference was trajectory #1, including patients with no CAV at baseline and stable CAV grade over time. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None